MiMo V2.5 Pro · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win60%Miss
BetAway win$720Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$720
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Away win

The USA are strongly favored to defeat Türkiye due to their superior World Cup form with two convincing wins, compared to Türkiye's two scoreless losses, and the Los Angeles venue effectively serving as a home advantage. However, Türkiye's recent 2-1 friendly victory over the USA introduces some uncertainty, but the consensus bookmaker odds and current tournament performance decisively point to a USA win.

Bet
Away win$7203 bets
Net P&L-$720
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $320
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$320

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on USA. Strong World Cup form (6-1 aggregate vs common opponents Australia and Paraguay) contrasts sharply with Türkiye's 0-3 record against the same sides. Los Angeles venue provides significant home-crowd advantage. Model gives 60% USA win probability vs ~51.5% implied at execution odds of 1.94 (Pinnacle), yielding +0.085 edge. Stake: ~6% of bankroll reflecting strong conviction on clear form and venue asymmetry.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $250
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with added position. Match script: USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye failed to score in both losses (0-1, 0-2). Los Angeles venue provides effective home advantage for host nation USA. The model shows +0.065 edge at execution price (1.870 Pinnacle) with 60% confidence on USA win. Already holding $320 on USA at 1.940; adding $250 to build on the strong form differential and positive edge. Total exposure will be $570 on

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $150
    odds 1.85Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye haven't scored in two tournament losses. USA have home crowd advantage in Los Angeles. Model gives 60% win probability with +0.059 edge at execution odds. Adding $150 to existing $570 USA position for total $720 exposure. Moderate conviction stake (~2.5% of bankroll) justified by clear form differential and positive expected value.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 20%Draw 20%Away win 60%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The rational case for USA rests on three converging structural factors: bookmaker consensus pricing USA at roughly double Türkiye's implied win probability, USA's superior World Cup campaign with two convincing wins versus Türkiye's two scoreless defeats, and the Los Angeles venue effectively serving as a home ground for the USA. The single H2H data point favors Türkiye but comes from a friendly over a year ago and is outweighed by current competitive form. Odds movement has slightly strengthene
  • - The bookmaker consensus across 13 samples assigns USA a 51.2% implied win probability versus 25.2% for Türkiye, with all major operators pricing USA as the clear favorite. Recent odds movement slightly favors USA further. This aligns with USA's two strong World Cup victories versus Türkiye's two losses, and the Los Angeles venue effectively providing a home crowd advantage for USA. Türkiye's 2-1 head-to-head friendly win last year limits the confidence ceiling, but the market evidence and curren

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.04Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalAway winThe rational case for USA rests on three converging structural factors: bookmaker consensus pricing USA at roughly double Türkiye's implied win probability, USA's superior World Cup campaign with two convincing wins versus Türkiye's two scoreless defeats, and the Los Angeles venue effectively serving as a home ground for the USA. The single H2H data point favors Türkiye but comes from a friendly over a year ago and is outweighed by current competitive form. Odds movement has slightly strengthene58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T08:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.2%, draw 23.6%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T08:15:10Z -> 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.69pp, draw -0.19pp, side B win +0.88pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.8 → side A 3.8 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.8, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.6, draw 4.2, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.3, side B 1.88. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-25T12:13:26Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 18°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 83%, wind 12.6 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The rational case for USA rests on three converging structural factors: bookmaker consensus pricing USA at roughly double Türkiye's implied win probability, USA's superior World Cup campaign with two convincing wins versus Türkiye's two scoreless defeats, and the Los Angeles venue effectively serving as a home ground for the USA. The single H2H data point favors Türkiye but comes from a friendly over a year ago and is outweighed by current competitive form. Odds movement has slightly strengthene

Conclusion note

USA enter this World Cup group-stage match as clear bookmaker favorites with 51.2% implied probability versus 25.2% for Türkiye, and their tournament form is significantly stronger having won both group matches 2-0 and 4-1 while Türkiye have lost both theirs 0-1 and 0-2 without scoring; the Los Angeles venue further advantages USA as the host nation. Although Türkiye won the only recent head-to-head meeting 2-1 in a 2025 friendly, the current odds movement slightly favoring USA and the stark contrast in World Cup form support a USA victory.

marketAway winThe bookmaker consensus across 13 samples assigns USA a 51.2% implied win probability versus 25.2% for Türkiye, with all major operators pricing USA as the clear favorite. Recent odds movement slightly favors USA further. This aligns with USA's two strong World Cup victories versus Türkiye's two losses, and the Los Angeles venue effectively providing a home crowd advantage for USA. Türkiye's 2-1 head-to-head friendly win last year limits the confidence ceiling, but the market evidence and curren62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T08:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.2%, draw 23.6%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T08:15:10Z -> 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.69pp, draw -0.19pp, side B win +0.88pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.8 → side A 3.8 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.8, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.6, draw 4.2, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.3, side B 1.88. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-25T12:13:26Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 18°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 83%, wind 12.6 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.2%, draw 23.6%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T08:15:10Z -> 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.69pp, draw -0.19pp, side B win +0.88pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.8 → side A 3.8 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.8, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.6, draw 4.2, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.3, side B 1.88. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.3.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The bookmaker consensus across 13 samples assigns USA a 51.2% implied win probability versus 25.2% for Türkiye, with all major operators pricing USA as the clear favorite. Recent odds movement slightly favors USA further. This aligns with USA's two strong World Cup victories versus Türkiye's two losses, and the Los Angeles venue effectively providing a home crowd advantage for USA. Türkiye's 2-1 head-to-head friendly win last year limits the confidence ceiling, but the market evidence and curren

Conclusion note

USA (side B) is the clear market favorite at 51.2% implied probability across 13 bookmakers, with consensus odds of 1.75–1.90 from William Hill, bet365, 10bet, and Marathonbet, while Türkiye is priced at 25.2% with odds of 3.5–3.84; the market has further drifted toward USA (+0.88pp), consistent with USA's strong World Cup form (4-1 vs Paraguay, 2-0 vs Australia) compared to Türkiye's two opening losses (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia), though Türkiye's 2-1 friendly win over USA in June 2025 introduces some uncertainty.

Synthesis

The USA are strongly favored to defeat Türkiye due to their superior World Cup form with two convincing wins, compared to Türkiye's two scoreless losses, and the Los Angeles venue effectively serving as a home advantage. However, Türkiye's recent 2-1 friendly victory over the USA introduces some uncertainty, but the consensus bookmaker odds and current tournament performance decisively point to a USA win.

Reasoning summary: Both rational and market perspectives agree on a USA victory, citing bookmaker consensus odds favoring USA at 51.2% implied probability, strong tournament results with USA winning both matches while Türkiye lost both, and the host-nation venue advantage, outweighing the lone head-to-head friendly win for Türkiye.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Actionable editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection USA vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.relevance 0.50