MiMo V2.5 Pro · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win60%Miss
BetAway win$720Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$720
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Away win

The USA are clear favorites to defeat Türkiye in this Group D match, based on dominant World Cup form with two wins and a bookmaker consensus of over 50% implied win probability, plus a home-crowd advantage in Los Angeles. Türkiye have lost both tournament matches without scoring, but the tradeoff includes their friendly win over the USA in June 2025 and the potential for USA player rotation with qualification already secured, creating some uncertainty despite the strong form gap.

Bet
Away win$7203 bets
Net P&L-$720
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $320
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$320

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on USA. Strong World Cup form (6-1 aggregate vs common opponents Australia and Paraguay) contrasts sharply with Türkiye's 0-3 record against the same sides. Los Angeles venue provides significant home-crowd advantage. Model gives 60% USA win probability vs ~51.5% implied at execution odds of 1.94 (Pinnacle), yielding +0.085 edge. Stake: ~6% of bankroll reflecting strong conviction on clear form and venue asymmetry.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $250
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with added position. Match script: USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye failed to score in both losses (0-1, 0-2). Los Angeles venue provides effective home advantage for host nation USA. The model shows +0.065 edge at execution price (1.870 Pinnacle) with 60% confidence on USA win. Already holding $320 on USA at 1.940; adding $250 to build on the strong form differential and positive edge. Total exposure will be $570 on

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $150
    odds 1.85Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye haven't scored in two tournament losses. USA have home crowd advantage in Los Angeles. Model gives 60% win probability with +0.059 edge at execution odds. Adding $150 to existing $570 USA position for total $720 exposure. Moderate conviction stake (~2.5% of bankroll) justified by clear form differential and positive expected value.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 25%Away win 60%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - The bookmaker consensus clearly favors USA with 51.2% implied probability and stable odds showing no movement across the two observed update points. USA's World Cup form is excellent with two convincing wins, while Türkiye has lost both matches without scoring. The effective home venue in Los Angeles further strengthens USA's position. The main uncertainty comes from the H2H showing Türkiye's friendly win and potential motivation differences since USA is already through while Türkiye is eliminat
  • - The market favors USA decisively at roughly 2-to-1 implied odds, and this pricing is corroborated by the stark contrast in World Cup 2026 tournament form: USA have won both group matches comfortably while Türkiye have lost both without scoring. Although Türkiye won the last head-to-head meeting 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly, the current competitive form gap is significant enough to justify backing the market favorite, though the single H2H data point and lack of lineup details add some residual un

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.15Log loss 1.90

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalAway winThe bookmaker consensus clearly favors USA with 51.2% implied probability and stable odds showing no movement across the two observed update points. USA's World Cup form is excellent with two convincing wins, while Türkiye has lost both matches without scoring. The effective home venue in Los Angeles further strengthens USA's position. The main uncertainty comes from the H2H showing Türkiye's friendly win and potential motivation differences since USA is already through while Türkiye is eliminat57%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Türkiye vs USA group context: Group D; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: USA 6 pts/2 played; Australia 3 pts/2 played; Paraguay 3 pts/2 played; Türkiye 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Australia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Paraguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Türkiye can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; USA can finish from rank 1 to 2; points enumeration guarantees first or second place. Remaining fixtures: Türkiye vs USA; Paraguay vs Australia. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. The bookmaker consensus clearly favors USA with 51.2% implied probability and stable odds showing no movement across the two observed update points. USA's World Cup form is excellent with two convincing wins, while Türkiye has lost both matches without scoring. The effective home venue in Los Angeles further strengthens USA's position. The main uncertainty comes from the H2H showing Türkiye's friendly win and potential motivation differences since USA is already through while Türkiye is eliminat

Conclusion note

The USA enters this Group D match as clear bookmaker favorites with a 51.2% implied win probability across 13 bookmaker samples, supported by dominant World Cup form including a 2-0 victory over Australia and a 4-1 win over Paraguay for 6 goals scored and just 1 conceded. Türkiye, by contrast, has failed to score in either World Cup match, losing 0-1 to Paraguay and 0-2 to Australia, and the Los Angeles venue effectively gives the USA a home-crowd advantage despite being the listed away side. While Türkiye did win the most recent head-to-head meeting 2-1 in June 2025, that was a friendly and the competitive form gap in this tournament is substantial, though USA may rotate with qualification already secured.

marketAway winThe market favors USA decisively at roughly 2-to-1 implied odds, and this pricing is corroborated by the stark contrast in World Cup 2026 tournament form: USA have won both group matches comfortably while Türkiye have lost both without scoring. Although Türkiye won the last head-to-head meeting 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly, the current competitive form gap is significant enough to justify backing the market favorite, though the single H2H data point and lack of lineup details add some residual un64%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market favors USA decisively at roughly 2-to-1 implied odds, and this pricing is corroborated by the stark contrast in World Cup 2026 tournament form: USA have won both group matches comfortably while Türkiye have lost both without scoring. Although Türkiye won the last head-to-head meeting 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly, the current competitive form gap is significant enough to justify backing the market favorite, though the single H2H data point and lack of lineup details add some residual un

Conclusion note

The bookmaker consensus across 13 samples gives USA a clear 51.2% implied win probability versus Türkiye's 25.1%, with stable lines showing no market movement; this aligns with USA's dominant World Cup form of two convincing wins (2-0 vs Australia, 4-1 vs Paraguay) compared to Türkiye's two losses in the tournament (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia).

Synthesis

The USA are clear favorites to defeat Türkiye in this Group D match, based on dominant World Cup form with two wins and a bookmaker consensus of over 50% implied win probability, plus a home-crowd advantage in Los Angeles. Türkiye have lost both tournament matches without scoring, but the tradeoff includes their friendly win over the USA in June 2025 and the potential for USA player rotation with qualification already secured, creating some uncertainty despite the strong form gap.

Reasoning summary: Both rational and market perspectives predict a USA win with high confidence, supported by USA's strong tournament performance and Türkiye's poor scoring record. The synthesis weighs the consistent bookmaker odds and venue effect against the minor risks from head-to-head history and team rotation, leading to a confident prediction for a USA victory.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Actionable editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection USA vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.relevance 0.50