MiMo V2.5 Pro · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win60%Miss
BetAway win$720Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$720
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Away win

The USA are favored to win based on consistent bookmaker odds and their strong World Cup performance, having secured 6 goals with only 1 conceded against common opponents Australia and Paraguay, while Türkiye lost to both without scoring. Although Türkiye won a friendly in 2025, the competitive tournament evidence clearly supports a USA victory.

Bet
Away win$7203 bets
Net P&L-$720
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $320
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$320

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on USA. Strong World Cup form (6-1 aggregate vs common opponents Australia and Paraguay) contrasts sharply with Türkiye's 0-3 record against the same sides. Los Angeles venue provides significant home-crowd advantage. Model gives 60% USA win probability vs ~51.5% implied at execution odds of 1.94 (Pinnacle), yielding +0.085 edge. Stake: ~6% of bankroll reflecting strong conviction on clear form and venue asymmetry.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $250
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with added position. Match script: USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye failed to score in both losses (0-1, 0-2). Los Angeles venue provides effective home advantage for host nation USA. The model shows +0.065 edge at execution price (1.870 Pinnacle) with 60% confidence on USA win. Already holding $320 on USA at 1.940; adding $250 to build on the strong form differential and positive edge. Total exposure will be $570 on

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $150
    odds 1.85Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：USA have won both World Cup matches convincingly (2-0, 4-1) while Türkiye haven't scored in two tournament losses. USA have home crowd advantage in Los Angeles. Model gives 60% win probability with +0.059 edge at execution odds. Adding $150 to existing $570 USA position for total $720 exposure. Moderate conviction stake (~2.5% of bankroll) justified by clear form differential and positive expected value.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,941

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 25%Away win 60%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-2
  2. #21-2
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The bookmaker market assessment reveals consistent favoritism toward USA across 13 bookmaker samples, with odds around 1.90 implying approximately 50% win probability compared to 3.50 odds for Türkiye implying roughly 27% win probability. The near-zero consensus movement (+0.04pp for Türkiye, -0pp for USA) across the observation window indicates market stability rather than shifting sentiment. While the head-to-head shows Türkiye won 2-1 in a 2025 friendly, the current World Cup form dramaticall
  • - Against the two common World Cup group-stage opponents, USA accumulated a 6-1 goal difference with two wins, whereas Türkiye managed a 0-3 goal difference with two losses, showing a clear current-form gulf. USA lead Group D on six points with qualification secured, while Türkiye sit bottom on zero points. The market consensus reinforces this gap. A prior friendly H2H win for Türkiye (2-1 in June 2025) provides some counterweight but is over a year old and outside competitive tournament context,

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.15Log loss 1.90

Meta thinking

  • Market odds assessmentExamine the captured odds from 12 observations to identify the bookmakers' implied probabilities and any notable patterns or changes in the line for the Türkiye vs USA match.
  • Recent World Cup performance comparisonCompare the visible recent match records, focusing on World Cup 2026 group stage results against common opponents Australia and Paraguay, to evaluate each team's current form and goal-scoring or defensive trends.

Tokens: 3643

Perspectives

Market odds assessmentAway winThe bookmaker market assessment reveals consistent favoritism toward USA across 13 bookmaker samples, with odds around 1.90 implying approximately 50% win probability compared to 3.50 odds for Türkiye implying roughly 27% win probability. The near-zero consensus movement (+0.04pp for Türkiye, -0pp for USA) across the observation window indicates market stability rather than shifting sentiment. While the head-to-head shows Türkiye won 2-1 in a 2025 friendly, the current World Cup form dramaticall62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The bookmaker market assessment reveals consistent favoritism toward USA across 13 bookmaker samples, with odds around 1.90 implying approximately 50% win probability compared to 3.50 odds for Türkiye implying roughly 27% win probability. The near-zero consensus movement (+0.04pp for Türkiye, -0pp for USA) across the observation window indicates market stability rather than shifting sentiment. While the head-to-head shows Türkiye won 2-1 in a 2025 friendly, the current World Cup form dramaticall

Conclusion note

The market odds clearly favor the USA over Türkiye in this World Cup group stage match, with consensus implied probabilities showing USA at 49.2% versus Türkiye at 26.8%, and bookmaker lines ranging from 1.83 to 1.95 for a USA victory. The odds have remained highly stable across nine update points with minimal movement, indicating strong market conviction in USA as the favorite, which aligns with USA's dominant World Cup form of 4-1 and 2-0 wins versus Türkiye's losses of 0-1 and 0-2 to the same opponents Paraguay and Australia.

Recent World Cup performance comparisonAway winAgainst the two common World Cup group-stage opponents, USA accumulated a 6-1 goal difference with two wins, whereas Türkiye managed a 0-3 goal difference with two losses, showing a clear current-form gulf. USA lead Group D on six points with qualification secured, while Türkiye sit bottom on zero points. The market consensus reinforces this gap. A prior friendly H2H win for Türkiye (2-1 in June 2025) provides some counterweight but is over a year old and outside competitive tournament context,64%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent World Cup performance comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Türkiye vs USA group context: Group D; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: USA 6 pts/2 played; Australia 3 pts/2 played; Paraguay 3 pts/2 played; Türkiye 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Australia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Paraguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Türkiye can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; USA can finish from rank 1 to 2; points enumeration guarantees first or second place. Remaining fixtures: Türkiye vs USA; Paraguay vs Australia. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Against the two common World Cup group-stage opponents, USA accumulated a 6-1 goal difference with two wins, whereas Türkiye managed a 0-3 goal difference with two losses, showing a clear current-form gulf. USA lead Group D on six points with qualification secured, while Türkiye sit bottom on zero points. The market consensus reinforces this gap. A prior friendly H2H win for Türkiye (2-1 in June 2025) provides some counterweight but is over a year old and outside competitive tournament context,

Conclusion note

USA have been dominant in the World Cup 2026 group stage, beating Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 for six goals scored and one conceded, while Türkiye lost to the same opponents 0-2 and 0-1 with zero goals scored and three conceded — a stark contrast that aligns with bookmaker odds giving USA roughly 49% implied win probability versus 27% for Türkiye.

Synthesis

The USA are favored to win based on consistent bookmaker odds and their strong World Cup performance, having secured 6 goals with only 1 conceded against common opponents Australia and Paraguay, while Türkiye lost to both without scoring. Although Türkiye won a friendly in 2025, the competitive tournament evidence clearly supports a USA victory.

Reasoning summary: Market odds and recent World Cup form both indicate a USA win, with stable implied probabilities around 50% and a superior goal difference against shared opponents. Türkiye's losses in the group stage, as reflected in recalled predictions, further diminish their chances, making a USA win the most defensible outcome.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Actionable editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay,relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 10.0%; draw 35.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection USA vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.47. Probability distribution: USA win 47.0%; draw 28.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.relevance 0.50