GLM-5.1 · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win54%Miss
BetAway win$860Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$860
PredictionConfidence: 54%
Away win

Both perspectives and the market consensus favor USA, who have won both World Cup group matches convincingly (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) while Türkiye have lost both group games without scoring (0-2 vs Australia, 0-1 vs Paraguay). The match is played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, effectively giving USA home-country crowd and travel advantage despite Türkiye being the scheduled home side. Bookmakers assign USA around a 51.2% implied win probability with stable odds, and Türkiye's sole friendly head-to-head win carries limited weight against current tournament form. The decisive tradeoff favors USA's superior form and venue advantage, though Türkiye's previous friendly win and single-match uncertainty keep confidence moderate.

Bet
Away win$8603 bets
Net P&L-$860
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $390
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$390

    Betting rationale：Backing USA on a compelling tournament-form mismatch: both teams faced the same group opponents, and USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 while Türkiye lost 0-2 and 0-1, scoring zero competitive goals. SoFi Stadium gives USA de facto home-crowd advantage, contradicting the nominal home label. The only positive model edge is on side_b_win (+0.035 at execution price 1.940), and the match script—dominant hosts vs a side that has looked inert in this tournament—lines up with the price. Normal con

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $310
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$310

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing USA side_b_win position. USA have superior World Cup form (2W vs shared opponents Türkiye lost to), venue advantage at SoFi Stadium, and odds at 1.870 offer +0.015 edge vs execution. The prediction gives USA 55% vs 51.2% implied, confirming value. Türkiye lost both group matches and look vulnerable. Existing $390 at 1.940 is a solid base; adding $310 at 1.870 strengthens conviction on a clear tournament-form favorite. Total exposure ~$700 (~7% of balance) fits strong-convictio

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $160
    odds 1.85Settled: loss-$160

    Betting rationale：Conviction posture: USA are effectively at home at SoFi, have scored 6 goals and won both group matches (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia), while Türkiye have 0 goals and 2 losses in the tournament. The match script is clear—USA press and score, Türkiye struggle to create. I already hold $700 on side_b_win at better odds (1.940/1.870), but the football story remains compelling enough to add a modest supplementary stake despite execution odds tightening to 1.850 (edge ~0 at pinnacle). This is a convic

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 22%Draw 24%Away win 54%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-2
  2. #21-2
  3. #30-3

Analysis brief

  • - Bookmakers consistently favor USA at around 1.75–1.9 across multiple firms, reflecting a clear market consensus for side B. USA's World Cup form is strong with two decisive wins, whereas Türkiye have zero points from two group games. The match is played in Inglewood, effectively giving USA home-country crowd and travel advantage despite Türkiye being listed as the schedule home side. The sole head-to-head record is one friendly win for Türkiye, which carries limited predictive weight against cur
  • - The market perspective strongly favors USA: consensus implied probability is 51.2% for a USA win versus 25.1% for Türkiye, and odds lines at major bookmakers (William Hill 1.75, bet365 1.85, 10bet 1.90) have remained stable with no detectable movement, reinforcing confident market sentiment. Recent World Cup form validates the odds—USA won both group matches convincingly while Türkiye lost both without scoring, and the venue in Inglewood effectively gives USA home-country advantage. The only cou

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 46.0%; draw 29.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türkiye 1-1 Paraguay, T
  • - Recall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: USA win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.96Log loss 1.51

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalAway winBookmakers consistently favor USA at around 1.75–1.9 across multiple firms, reflecting a clear market consensus for side B. USA's World Cup form is strong with two decisive wins, whereas Türkiye have zero points from two group games. The match is played in Inglewood, effectively giving USA home-country crowd and travel advantage despite Türkiye being listed as the schedule home side. The sole head-to-head record is one friendly win for Türkiye, which carries limited predictive weight against cur58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Bookmakers consistently favor USA at around 1.75–1.9 across multiple firms, reflecting a clear market consensus for side B. USA's World Cup form is strong with two decisive wins, whereas Türkiye have zero points from two group games. The match is played in Inglewood, effectively giving USA home-country crowd and travel advantage despite Türkiye being listed as the schedule home side. The sole head-to-head record is one friendly win for Türkiye, which carries limited predictive weight against cur

Conclusion note

The odds consensus gives USA a 51.2% implied win probability with no market movement, and USA have won both their World Cup group matches 4-1 and 2-0 while Türkiye lost 0-2 to Australia and 0-1 to Paraguay, so USA's form and home-country venue advantage at SoFi Stadium outweigh Türkiye's single 2-1 friendly win in last year's head-to-head.

marketAway winThe market perspective strongly favors USA: consensus implied probability is 51.2% for a USA win versus 25.1% for Türkiye, and odds lines at major bookmakers (William Hill 1.75, bet365 1.85, 10bet 1.90) have remained stable with no detectable movement, reinforcing confident market sentiment. Recent World Cup form validates the odds—USA won both group matches convincingly while Türkiye lost both without scoring, and the venue in Inglewood effectively gives USA home-country advantage. The only cou58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The market perspective strongly favors USA: consensus implied probability is 51.2% for a USA win versus 25.1% for Türkiye, and odds lines at major bookmakers (William Hill 1.75, bet365 1.85, 10bet 1.90) have remained stable with no detectable movement, reinforcing confident market sentiment. Recent World Cup form validates the odds—USA won both group matches convincingly while Türkiye lost both without scoring, and the venue in Inglewood effectively gives USA home-country advantage. The only cou

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus assigns USA a 51.2% implied win probability with stable odds around 1.75-1.90, while Türkiye sits at roughly 25.1%, and USA's two World Cup group wins (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) contrast sharply with Türkiye's two group losses (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia), supporting the market's preference for USA in a match played in Inglewood.

Synthesis

Both perspectives and the market consensus favor USA, who have won both World Cup group matches convincingly (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) while Türkiye have lost both group games without scoring (0-2 vs Australia, 0-1 vs Paraguay). The match is played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, effectively giving USA home-country crowd and travel advantage despite Türkiye being the scheduled home side. Bookmakers assign USA around a 51.2% implied win probability with stable odds, and Türkiye's sole friendly head-to-head win carries limited weight against current tournament form. The decisive tradeoff favors USA's superior form and venue advantage, though Türkiye's previous friendly win and single-match uncertainty keep confidence moderate.

Reasoning summary: The rational and market perspectives both agree on a USA win, supported by consistent bookmaker implied probability of 51.2%, USA's two decisive World Cup group victories, Türkiye's two group losses without scoring, and the Inglewood venue giving USA effective home-country advantage. The only counterweight is Türkiye's single friendly head-to-head win, which has limited predictive value against current tournament form. Confidence remains moderate because Türkiye could still perform above their g

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiyerelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 46.0%; draw 29.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türkiye 1-1 Paraguay, Trelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection USA vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: USA win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.relevance 0.50