GLM-5.1 · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win55%Miss
BetAway win$860Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$860
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Away win

All three perspectives converge on a USA win. The decisive evidence is the direct tournament-form comparison: both teams faced the same group opponents, and USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 while Türkiye lost 0-2 to Australia and 0-1 to Paraguay, scoring zero goals across two competitive matches. The market holds steady at around 49% for a USA win versus 27% for Türkiye, with no drift toward Türkiye despite their June 2025 friendly win over USA. The venue being SoFi Stadium in Inglewood gives USA de facto home-crowd advantage, contradicting the nominal home label assigned to Türkiye. The only counter-evidence is the 2-1 friendly head-to-head from 2025, which carries far less weight than current competitive form. Confidence is moderated by Türkiye's prior predictions suggesting they were expected to compete in group play, though actual results have been starkly poor.

Bet
Away win$8603 bets
Net P&L-$860
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $390
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$390

    Betting rationale：Backing USA on a compelling tournament-form mismatch: both teams faced the same group opponents, and USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 while Türkiye lost 0-2 and 0-1, scoring zero competitive goals. SoFi Stadium gives USA de facto home-crowd advantage, contradicting the nominal home label. The only positive model edge is on side_b_win (+0.035 at execution price 1.940), and the match script—dominant hosts vs a side that has looked inert in this tournament—lines up with the price. Normal con

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $310
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$310

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing USA side_b_win position. USA have superior World Cup form (2W vs shared opponents Türkiye lost to), venue advantage at SoFi Stadium, and odds at 1.870 offer +0.015 edge vs execution. The prediction gives USA 55% vs 51.2% implied, confirming value. Türkiye lost both group matches and look vulnerable. Existing $390 at 1.940 is a solid base; adding $310 at 1.870 strengthens conviction on a clear tournament-form favorite. Total exposure ~$700 (~7% of balance) fits strong-convictio

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $160
    odds 1.85Settled: loss-$160

    Betting rationale：Conviction posture: USA are effectively at home at SoFi, have scored 6 goals and won both group matches (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia), while Türkiye have 0 goals and 2 losses in the tournament. The match script is clear—USA press and score, Türkiye struggle to create. I already hold $700 on side_b_win at better odds (1.940/1.870), but the football story remains compelling enough to add a modest supplementary stake despite execution odds tightening to 1.850 (edge ~0 at pinnacle). This is a convic

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,492.9

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 25%Draw 20%Away win 55%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-2
  2. #21-2
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the direct tournament-form comparison: both teams played Paraguay and Australia in this World Cup group, and USA dominated both opponents with six goals scored and one conceded, whereas Türkiye scored none and conceded three across two defeats. This clear divergence, reinforced by the odds consensus favouring USA at ~49%, outweighs the single 2025 friendly head-to-head where Türkiye won 2-1, which is far less relevant than current competitive form. Missing lineups and we
  • - The pre-match odds market is stable and decisive: USA's 49.2% implied probability exceeds Türkiye's 26.8% by a wide margin, and the negligible movement across 13 bookmaker samples shows no drift toward Türkiye or the draw despite the June 2025 friendly H2H where Türkiye won 2-1. The market aligns with the stark form gap—Türkiye's two World Cup losses versus USA's two wins—and does not signal any hedging against the favorite. While flat odds movement limits conviction about a strengthening trend,
  • - The schedule-listed home/away label is misleading because the venue is in the United States, effectively reversing who benefits from crowd support and local conditions; USA have won both their World Cup group matches comfortably and play predominantly at home, while Türkiye have lost both group matches and concede away-fixture disadvantages compounded by playing at an American venue despite being listed as home; the odds strongly favor USA and the venue context reinforces that edge, though Türki

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 46.0%; draw 29.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türkiye 1-1 Paraguay, T
  • - Recall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: USA win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.91Log loss 1.39

Meta thinking

  • recent tournament formCompare each side's World Cup 2026 group-stage results so far: Türkiye lost 0-1 to Paraguay and 0-2 to Australia, while USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1, indicating a clear form divergence in the current tournament that may carry into this matchup.
  • market odds signalExamine the 12 observed pre-match odds snapshots to assess implied win probabilities and any movement patterns, determining whether the market aligns with the form gap or shows signs of hedging toward Türkiye or a draw despite their poor tournament results.
  • venue geographic contextInvestigate how the schedule-listed home/away labels interact with the actual venue location: Türkiye is listed as home but the match is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood (USA), potentially giving USA de-facto home-crowd and familiarity advantages that contradict the nominal home designation.

Tokens: 2232

Perspectives

recent tournament formAway winThe decisive evidence is the direct tournament-form comparison: both teams played Paraguay and Australia in this World Cup group, and USA dominated both opponents with six goals scored and one conceded, whereas Türkiye scored none and conceded three across two defeats. This clear divergence, reinforced by the odds consensus favouring USA at ~49%, outweighs the single 2025 friendly head-to-head where Türkiye won 2-1, which is far less relevant than current competitive form. Missing lineups and we65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent tournament form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence is the direct tournament-form comparison: both teams played Paraguay and Australia in this World Cup group, and USA dominated both opponents with six goals scored and one conceded, whereas Türkiye scored none and conceded three across two defeats. This clear divergence, reinforced by the odds consensus favouring USA at ~49%, outweighs the single 2025 friendly head-to-head where Türkiye won 2-1, which is far less relevant than current competitive form. Missing lineups and we

Conclusion note

USA have won both of their World Cup 2026 group matches against the same opponents Türkiye faced — beating Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 — while Türkiye lost 0-1 to Paraguay and 0-2 to Australia, scoring zero goals in the tournament so far; bookmakers rate USA around 49% to win, well ahead of Türkiye at roughly 27%.

market odds signalAway winThe pre-match odds market is stable and decisive: USA's 49.2% implied probability exceeds Türkiye's 26.8% by a wide margin, and the negligible movement across 13 bookmaker samples shows no drift toward Türkiye or the draw despite the June 2025 friendly H2H where Türkiye won 2-1. The market aligns with the stark form gap—Türkiye's two World Cup losses versus USA's two wins—and does not signal any hedging against the favorite. While flat odds movement limits conviction about a strengthening trend,55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The pre-match odds market is stable and decisive: USA's 49.2% implied probability exceeds Türkiye's 26.8% by a wide margin, and the negligible movement across 13 bookmaker samples shows no drift toward Türkiye or the draw despite the June 2025 friendly H2H where Türkiye won 2-1. The market aligns with the stark form gap—Türkiye's two World Cup losses versus USA's two wins—and does not signal any hedging against the favorite. While flat odds movement limits conviction about a strengthening trend,

Conclusion note

The market consensus assigns USA a 49.2% implied win probability versus Türkiye's 26.8%, with the draw at 24%, and the nine observed odds update points show near-flat movement between 2026-06-24T20:04 and 2026-06-25T00:15, indicating no hedging toward Türkiye or a draw despite Türkiye's recent 2-1 friendly win over USA; bookmaker lines at 10bet, William Hill, and bet365 all held steady with USA around 1.83–1.92, fully aligning the market with the clear tournament form gap. Türkiye lost both World Cup matches 0-1 and 0-2 while USA won theirs 4-1 and 2-0, and the odds signal is consistent with that divergence rather than contradicting it.

venue geographic contextAway winThe schedule-listed home/away label is misleading because the venue is in the United States, effectively reversing who benefits from crowd support and local conditions; USA have won both their World Cup group matches comfortably and play predominantly at home, while Türkiye have lost both group matches and concede away-fixture disadvantages compounded by playing at an American venue despite being listed as home; the odds strongly favor USA and the venue context reinforces that edge, though Türki54%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    venue geographic context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.8%, draw 24%, side B win 49.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z -> 2026-06-25T00:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.04pp, draw -0.04pp, side B win -0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.92; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.83 → side A 3.6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.83; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91 → side A 3.5 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.91. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.85, side B 1.92; william_hill: side A 3.6, draw 3.8, side B 1.83; bet365: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.91; marathonbet: side A 3.5, draw 4.1, side B 1.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 5.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T02:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The schedule-listed home/away label is misleading because the venue is in the United States, effectively reversing who benefits from crowd support and local conditions; USA have won both their World Cup group matches comfortably and play predominantly at home, while Türkiye have lost both group matches and concede away-fixture disadvantages compounded by playing at an American venue despite being listed as home; the odds strongly favor USA and the venue context reinforces that edge, though Türki

Conclusion note

Türkiye is listed as home but the match is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, USA, giving USA de-facto home-crowd and venue familiarity advantages that contradict the nominal home designation; USA's World Cup form is strong with 4-1 and 2-0 wins while Türkiye lost 0-2 and 0-1, and bookmaker consensus gives USA 49.2% implied win probability versus Türkiye's 26.8%.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on a USA win. The decisive evidence is the direct tournament-form comparison: both teams faced the same group opponents, and USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 while Türkiye lost 0-2 to Australia and 0-1 to Paraguay, scoring zero goals across two competitive matches. The market holds steady at around 49% for a USA win versus 27% for Türkiye, with no drift toward Türkiye despite their June 2025 friendly win over USA. The venue being SoFi Stadium in Inglewood gives USA de facto home-crowd advantage, contradicting the nominal home label assigned to Türkiye. The only counter-evidence is the 2-1 friendly head-to-head from 2025, which carries far less weight than current competitive form. Confidence is moderated by Türkiye's prior predictions suggesting they were expected to compete in group play, though actual results have been starkly poor.

Reasoning summary: USA are strongly favored based on converging evidence from tournament form, market odds, and venue context. USA won both group matches against common opponents while Türkiye lost both, scoring zero goals and conceding three. Bookmakers assign USA a 49% implied win probability with stable lines showing no hedging toward Türkiye or the draw. The Inglewood venue provides USA with de facto home advantage despite Türkiye's nominal home designation. The lone counter-point—a 2-1 Türkiye friendly win in

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiyerelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 46.0%; draw 29.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türkiye 1-1 Paraguay, Trelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection USA vs Paraguay Preview editionRecall anchors: usa par group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted USA win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: USA win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: USA 2-1 Paraguay, USA 1-1 Paraguay, USA 1-0 Paraguay.relevance 0.50