ERNIE 5.1 · Türkiye vs USA

TürkiyevsUSA
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionAway win53%Miss
BetAway win$1,500Aligned
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$1,500
PredictionConfidence: 53%
Away win

USA are strong favorites to beat Türkiye at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, with all three analytical perspectives agreeing on a USA win at confidences between 62% and 68%. The evidence is compelling: USA have won both their World Cup matches convincingly (2-0 vs Australia, 4-1 vs Paraguay) scoring six goals while conceding just one, whereas Türkiye have lost both matches without scoring (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia). The only head-to-head meeting was a June 2025 friendly where Türkiye won 2-1, but that result predates USA's dominant tournament form and is outweighed by the WC record. The odds consensus of roughly 51% for USA versus 25% for Türkiye with a 24% draw already prices in the venue advantage and form gap. A plausible scenario is USA controlling possession from the start and breaking through in the first half, with Türkiye struggling to create chances as they did in their two defeats.

Bet
Away win$1,5002 bets
Net P&L-$1,500
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $800
    odds 1.87Settled: loss-$800

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction add-on. USA are 2-0 in the World Cup with 6 goals scored and 1 conceded; Türkiye are 0-2 with 0 goals scored and 3 conceded. The model gives USA 60% probability with a +0.065 edge at Pinnacle's 1.870. I already have $700 on USA at 1.940; adding $800 more at the sharper 1.870 price increases total USA exposure to $1,500 (~14% of bankroll) — a strong-conviction portfolio bet on the clear form gap, not a reckless gamble. The script is clean: USA control possession, convert chanc

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,322.8

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $700
    odds 1.94Settled: loss-$700

    Betting rationale：Cold value posture. USA arrive at SoFi Stadium with tournament momentum (6 goals scored, 1 conceded, two dominant wins) facing an eliminated Türkiye side that hasn't scored a single goal in the World Cup. The model prices USA at 58% win probability while pinnacle's execution odds of 1.940 imply only 51.5% — a clear +6.5% edge. The venue in LA adds to USA's home-field comfort despite the neutral listing. Türkiye's 0-point elimination removes any urgency, making the draw a trap but the USA win the

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,322.8

Post-match result3-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 23%Draw 24%Away win 53%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus of 51% for USA versus 25% for Türkiye accurately prices in the recent form gap: USA arrive on a two-match World Cup winning streak with 3 wins in 5, while Türkiye have lost 2 straight World Cup games and won only 2 of 5 overall. Although Türkiye won the most recent head-to-head friendly, that result predates USA's dominant World Cup performances, and no injuries or suspensions affect either squad. The venue in Inglewood is effectively neutral despite Türkiye's home listing, so
  • - Across 12 captured odds, the consensus firmly favors USA at roughly 51% implied probability, with Türkiye at 25% and a draw at 24%. USA's World Cup form (2 wins, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded) strongly justifies the favorite pricing, while Türkiye's World Cup record (0 wins, 2 losses, 0 goals scored, 3 conceded) supports the underdog odds. The head-to-head shows Türkiye won the last meeting 2-1 in a friendly, which introduces some uncertainty, but the tournament-specific form divergence i
  • - The bookmaker consensus gives USA a 51.2% win probability versus 25.1% for Türkiye, a gap that already captures the venue advantage of playing in USA territory at SoFi Stadium. Tournament form reinforces this: USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 in WC 2026 while Türkiye lost to Paraguay 0-1 and Australia 0-2 with zero goals scored. The single head-to-head friendly from June 2025 saw Türkiye win 2-1 in USA, but that is outweighed by the dominant WC form and the clear odds pricing. No injury o

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türki
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 22.0%; draw 23.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiye
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.93Log loss 1.47

Meta thinking

  • Recent form trajectoryCompare the 5-match records: Türkiye has 3 consecutive World Cup losses (vs Paraguay 0-1, vs Australia 0-2, plus earlier loss) with only 2 wins in the last 5, while USA has 2 consecutive World Cup wins (vs Australia 2-0, vs Paraguay 4-1) with 3 wins in the last 5. Investigate whether the momentum gap is reflected in the captured odds.
  • Market odds positioningWith 12 odds captured for this fixture, analyze the spread and implied probabilities to understand what the market prices for Türkiye vs USA, and whether the odds align with or diverge from the recent form evidence.
  • Schedule-home vs venue locationTürkiye is listed as the home side but the match is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, USA territory. Examine whether the captured odds and form data show any de facto advantage for the USA from playing in a familiar location despite the home label belonging to Türkiye.

Tokens: 3831

Perspectives

Recent form trajectoryAway winThe odds consensus of 51% for USA versus 25% for Türkiye accurately prices in the recent form gap: USA arrive on a two-match World Cup winning streak with 3 wins in 5, while Türkiye have lost 2 straight World Cup games and won only 2 of 5 overall. Although Türkiye won the most recent head-to-head friendly, that result predates USA's dominant World Cup performances, and no injuries or suspensions affect either squad. The venue in Inglewood is effectively neutral despite Türkiye's home listing, so65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. The odds consensus of 51% for USA versus 25% for Türkiye accurately prices in the recent form gap: USA arrive on a two-match World Cup winning streak with 3 wins in 5, while Türkiye have lost 2 straight World Cup games and won only 2 of 5 overall. Although Türkiye won the most recent head-to-head friendly, that result predates USA's dominant World Cup performances, and no injuries or suspensions affect either squad. The venue in Inglewood is effectively neutral despite Türkiye's home listing, so

Conclusion note

USA are strong favorites at 51% implied probability against Türkiye's 25%, a gap that mirrors the form trajectory: USA have won 3 of their last 5 matches including two consecutive World Cup victories (2-0 vs Australia, 4-1 vs Paraguay), while Türkiye have won only 2 of their last 5 with two consecutive World Cup defeats (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia). The only head-to-head meeting in the data shows Türkiye won 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly, but USA's subsequent World Cup form is markedly stronger.

Market odds positioningAway winAcross 12 captured odds, the consensus firmly favors USA at roughly 51% implied probability, with Türkiye at 25% and a draw at 24%. USA's World Cup form (2 wins, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded) strongly justifies the favorite pricing, while Türkiye's World Cup record (0 wins, 2 losses, 0 goals scored, 3 conceded) supports the underdog odds. The head-to-head shows Türkiye won the last meeting 2-1 in a friendly, which introduces some uncertainty, but the tournament-specific form divergence i62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds positioning

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Across 12 captured odds, the consensus firmly favors USA at roughly 51% implied probability, with Türkiye at 25% and a draw at 24%. USA's World Cup form (2 wins, 0 losses, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded) strongly justifies the favorite pricing, while Türkiye's World Cup record (0 wins, 2 losses, 0 goals scored, 3 conceded) supports the underdog odds. The head-to-head shows Türkiye won the last meeting 2-1 in a friendly, which introduces some uncertainty, but the tournament-specific form divergence i

Conclusion note

The market prices USA as clear favorites with a 51.2% implied probability (odds around 1.75–1.90) against Türkiye's 25.1% (odds around 3.45–3.84), and this aligns with USA's perfect 2-0 World Cup record versus Türkiye's 0-2, though Türkiye did beat USA 2-1 in their most recent head-to-head friendly in June 2025.

Schedule-home vs venue locationAway winThe bookmaker consensus gives USA a 51.2% win probability versus 25.1% for Türkiye, a gap that already captures the venue advantage of playing in USA territory at SoFi Stadium. Tournament form reinforces this: USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 in WC 2026 while Türkiye lost to Paraguay 0-1 and Australia 0-2 with zero goals scored. The single head-to-head friendly from June 2025 saw Türkiye win 2-1 in USA, but that is outweighed by the dominant WC form and the clear odds pricing. No injury o68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Schedule-home vs venue location

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Türkiye: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Türkiye: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-06-07, TUR vs United States, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'East Hartford', 'name': 'Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field'}. (full detail via reference hist-d98f103a35)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Türkiye:

    • 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-11T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-16T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Wales, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Iceland, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Montenegro, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: TUR vs United States. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #10

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 25.1%, draw 23.7%, side B win 51.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.95 / side B 1.9; william_hill side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.75; bet365 side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85 → side A 3.8 / draw 4 / side B 1.85. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.95, side B 1.9; william_hill: side A 3.75, draw 3.9, side B 1.75; bet365: side A 3.8, draw 4, side B 1.85; marathonbet: side A 3.84, draw 4.15, side B 1.84. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.6.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The bookmaker consensus gives USA a 51.2% win probability versus 25.1% for Türkiye, a gap that already captures the venue advantage of playing in USA territory at SoFi Stadium. Tournament form reinforces this: USA beat Australia 2-0 and Paraguay 4-1 in WC 2026 while Türkiye lost to Paraguay 0-1 and Australia 0-2 with zero goals scored. The single head-to-head friendly from June 2025 saw Türkiye win 2-1 in USA, but that is outweighed by the dominant WC form and the clear odds pricing. No injury o

Conclusion note

USA are strong favorites at 51% implied probability against Türkiye's 25%, with form showing USA dominated WC 2026 with two wins and six goals scored while Türkiye lost both matches without scoring, and the venue at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood is USA home territory with odds already fully pricing in that de facto advantage.

Synthesis

USA are strong favorites to beat Türkiye at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, with all three analytical perspectives agreeing on a USA win at confidences between 62% and 68%. The evidence is compelling: USA have won both their World Cup matches convincingly (2-0 vs Australia, 4-1 vs Paraguay) scoring six goals while conceding just one, whereas Türkiye have lost both matches without scoring (0-1 vs Paraguay, 0-2 vs Australia). The only head-to-head meeting was a June 2025 friendly where Türkiye won 2-1, but that result predates USA's dominant tournament form and is outweighed by the WC record. The odds consensus of roughly 51% for USA versus 25% for Türkiye with a 24% draw already prices in the venue advantage and form gap. A plausible scenario is USA controlling possession from the start and breaking through in the first half, with Türkiye struggling to create chances as they did in their two defeats.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives independently pick a USA victory with confidences ranging from 0.62 to 0.68, supported by USA's 2-0 World Cup record with six goals scored versus Türkiye's 0-2 record with zero goals. The recalled memory confirms Türkiye underperformed expectations in both World Cup matches, losing to Paraguay and Australia despite earlier predictions favoring them. The June 2025 friendly where Türkiye beat USA 2-1 introduces minor uncertainty but is clearly superseded by tournament-specif

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Türkiye vs Paraguay Late editionRecall anchors: tur par group_d_round_2. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: Türkiye win 48.0%; draw 27.0%; Paraguay win 25.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Türkiye 1-0 Paraguay, Türkiye 2-1 Paraguay, Türkirelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Australia win 22.0%; draw 23.0%; Türkiye win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 0-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50