GLM-5.1 · Sweden vs Tunisia

SwedenvsTunisia
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win55%Hit
BetHome win$300Aligned
Post-match result5-1
Net P&L+$297
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Home win

Sweden are clear favourites against Tunisia, supported by both bookmaker consensus at roughly 49% implied win probability and a strong recent form record of seven wins, two draws and one loss in their last ten matches, compared to Tunisia's two wins, two draws and six losses including a 0-5 defeat to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria. The slight odds drift away from Sweden over the past two days is modest and does not overturn their favourite status. However, the absence of head-to-head records, confirmed lineups and weather forecasts adds meaningful uncertainty, so confidence is moderate rather than high. A narrow Sweden win such as 1-0 or 2-0 is the most plausible scenario, with 1-1 as the leading draw alternative.

Bet
Home win$300
Net P&L+$297
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.99Settled: win+$297

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture: Sweden's form advantage (7W-2D-1L last 10) vs Tunisia's poor run (2W-2D-6L, including 0-5 vs Belgium) makes a Sweden win the most plausible script, likely narrow like 1-0 or 2-0. Execution price 1.990 offers a +4.7% model edge on side_a_win, which is the only positive-edge outcome across 1x2. The modest odds drift away from Sweden over the past two days is a mild caution but doesn't overturn favorite status. Missing lineups and H2H add uncertainty, keeping confidence

    Payout: $597 · Balance after: $11,067.4

Post-match result5-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 55%Draw 27%Away win 18%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive tradeoff is between Sweden's clear form and odds advantage and the missing contextual evidence layers: bookmakers give Sweden about a 49% win chance versus Tunisia's 23%, and Sweden's 7-2-1 recent record far exceeds Tunisia's 2-2-6, but the absence of head-to-head records, weather forecasts and confirmed lineups, plus a small odds drift away from Sweden, justify moderate rather than high confidence in a Sweden win.
  • - The market clearly favors Sweden at roughly 49% implied probability, and Tunisia's poor recent results — a 0-5 loss to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria — reinforce that pricing. The slight odds drift of -1.62pp for Sweden and +1.09pp for Tunisia is modest and does not overturn the favorite status. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather forecasts adds uncertainty, so confidence is kept moderate rather than matching the full implied probability.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.31Log loss 0.60

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between Sweden's clear form and odds advantage and the missing contextual evidence layers: bookmakers give Sweden about a 49% win chance versus Tunisia's 23%, and Sweden's 7-2-1 recent record far exceeds Tunisia's 2-2-6, but the absence of head-to-head records, weather forecasts and confirmed lineups, plus a small odds drift away from Sweden, justify moderate rather than high confidence in a Sweden win.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: SWE vs TUN. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 48.7%, draw 28.1%, side B win 23.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.62pp, draw +0.53pp, side B win +1.09pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.35 / side B 4; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.91 / draw 3.3 / side B 4; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.95 / draw 3.4 / side B 4. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.35, side B 4; william_hill: side A 1.91, draw 3.3, side B 4; bet365: side A 1.95, draw 3.4, side B 4; marathonbet: side A 1.99, draw 3.44, side B 4.3. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T13:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between Sweden's clear form and odds advantage and the missing contextual evidence layers: bookmakers give Sweden about a 49% win chance versus Tunisia's 23%, and Sweden's 7-2-1 recent record far exceeds Tunisia's 2-2-6, but the absence of head-to-head records, weather forecasts and confirmed lineups, plus a small odds drift away from Sweden, justify moderate rather than high confidence in a Sweden win.

Conclusion note

Sweden are favored by bookmaker consensus at roughly 49% implied win probability and carry notably stronger recent form with seven wins, two draws and one loss across their last ten matches, while Tunisia have won only twice in their last ten and suffered heavy defeats including a 0-5 loss to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria shortly before this tournament. No head-to-head, weather or lineup data are available, and odds drifted slightly away from Sweden over the last two days, adding uncertainty to a still-clear favourite.

marketHome winThe market clearly favors Sweden at roughly 49% implied probability, and Tunisia's poor recent results — a 0-5 loss to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria — reinforce that pricing. The slight odds drift of -1.62pp for Sweden and +1.09pp for Tunisia is modest and does not overturn the favorite status. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather forecasts adds uncertainty, so confidence is kept moderate rather than matching the full implied probability.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: SWE vs TUN. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 48.7%, draw 28.1%, side B win 23.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.62pp, draw +0.53pp, side B win +1.09pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.35 / side B 4; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.91 / draw 3.3 / side B 4; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.95 / draw 3.4 / side B 4. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.35, side B 4; william_hill: side A 1.91, draw 3.3, side B 4; bet365: side A 1.95, draw 3.4, side B 4; marathonbet: side A 1.99, draw 3.44, side B 4.3. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T13:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The market clearly favors Sweden at roughly 49% implied probability, and Tunisia's poor recent results — a 0-5 loss to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria — reinforce that pricing. The slight odds drift of -1.62pp for Sweden and +1.09pp for Tunisia is modest and does not overturn the favorite status. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather forecasts adds uncertainty, so confidence is kept moderate rather than matching the full implied probability.

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus assigns Sweden a 48.7% implied win probability against Tunisia's 23.2%, with the draw at 28.1%, and while odds have drifted slightly away from Sweden over the past two days, the margin remains small. Sweden's recent form includes five wins in ten matches, whereas Tunisia lost heavily to Belgium and Austria in their last two friendlies, which aligns with the market pricing.

Synthesis

Sweden are clear favourites against Tunisia, supported by both bookmaker consensus at roughly 49% implied win probability and a strong recent form record of seven wins, two draws and one loss in their last ten matches, compared to Tunisia's two wins, two draws and six losses including a 0-5 defeat to Belgium and a 0-1 loss to Austria. The slight odds drift away from Sweden over the past two days is modest and does not overturn their favourite status. However, the absence of head-to-head records, confirmed lineups and weather forecasts adds meaningful uncertainty, so confidence is moderate rather than high. A narrow Sweden win such as 1-0 or 2-0 is the most plausible scenario, with 1-1 as the leading draw alternative.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives converge on Sweden as the favourite, citing bookmaker implied win probability around 49% versus Tunisia's 23% and Sweden's markedly superior recent form. Tunisia's heavy friendly defeats reinforce the gap. The small odds drift away from Sweden and the lack of head-to-head, lineup and weather data temper confidence, keeping it at 0.55 rather than fully matching the implied market probability. The draw is assigned 0.27 and a Tunisia win 0.18, reflecting Tunisia's poor form and ma