ERNIE 5.1 · Sweden vs Tunisia

SwedenvsTunisia
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win58%Hit
BetHome win$550Aligned
Post-match result5-1
Net P&L+$544.5
PredictionConfidence: 58%
Home win

Sweden are the clear favourites heading into the match at Monterrey Stadium, backed by a strong recent record of seven wins in ten games compared with Tunisia’s three wins, and by bookmaker odds that still place Sweden at roughly a 49 % chance of victory. However, the market has drifted slightly against Sweden over the last two days and the draw probability has risen, reflecting cautious money on the underdog. With no injury or suspension concerns for either side, the form advantage and odds point to a Sweden win, but the neutral venue and the modest odds shift keep the confidence moderate. A plausible scenario is Sweden applying early pressure and securing a narrow 1‑0 lead, though a tight contest cannot be ruled out.

Bet
Home win$550
Net P&L+$544.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $550
    odds 1.99Settled: win+$544.5

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction with model edge. Sweden's 7 wins in 10 contrasts sharply with Tunisia's collapse (0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria). Model gives Sweden 58% vs Pinnacle's implied ~50% — a clean 7.7% edge at 1.990. The 1-0 script (22% top prediction) fits Sweden grinding out narrow wins against a battered Tunisia side. Neutral Monterrey venue doesn't erase the form chasm. Staking ~7% of bankroll ($550) on a clear favorite with genuine value — not a lottery ticket, a calculated conviction play.

    Payout: $1,094.5 · Balance after: $8,247.5

Post-match result5-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 58%Draw 24%Away win 18%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus and recent form both point toward a Sweden victory, with Sweden winning 7 of their last 10 matches versus Tunisia's 3 wins in 10. However, the implied probability has slipped from about 50% to 48.7% and the draw probability has risen, indicating some market caution despite the form gap. With no availability issues for either side and no head-to-head history to reference, the form differential and odds favor Sweden, but the neutral venue and slight odds drift keep confidence mo
  • - The bookmaker consensus strongly favors a Sweden win with implied probability near 49%, and Sweden's superior recent record (6-2-2 in last 10 versus Tunisia's 3-3-4) supports the market line; however, the visible odds movement shows Sweden's price rising from ~1.82–1.85 to ~1.90–1.99 and Tunisia's shortening from ~4.2–4.33 to ~4.0–4.3, indicating some late money on the underdog and creating modest uncertainty despite Sweden remaining the clear favorite.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.27Log loss 0.54

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe odds consensus and recent form both point toward a Sweden victory, with Sweden winning 7 of their last 10 matches versus Tunisia's 3 wins in 10. However, the implied probability has slipped from about 50% to 48.7% and the draw probability has risen, indicating some market caution despite the form gap. With no availability issues for either side and no head-to-head history to reference, the form differential and odds favor Sweden, but the neutral venue and slight odds drift keep confidence mo62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: SWE vs TUN. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 48.7%, draw 28.1%, side B win 23.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.62pp, draw +0.53pp, side B win +1.09pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.35 / side B 4; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.91 / draw 3.3 / side B 4; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.95 / draw 3.4 / side B 4. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.35, side B 4; william_hill: side A 1.91, draw 3.3, side B 4; bet365: side A 1.95, draw 3.4, side B 4; marathonbet: side A 1.99, draw 3.44, side B 4.3. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T13:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The odds consensus and recent form both point toward a Sweden victory, with Sweden winning 7 of their last 10 matches versus Tunisia's 3 wins in 10. However, the implied probability has slipped from about 50% to 48.7% and the draw probability has risen, indicating some market caution despite the form gap. With no availability issues for either side and no head-to-head history to reference, the form differential and odds favor Sweden, but the neutral venue and slight odds drift keep confidence mo

Conclusion note

Sweden are clear favorites at roughly 49% implied probability with odds around 1.90–1.95, while Tunisia sit at about 23% with odds near 4.0, but the market has drifted slightly against Sweden over the past two days. Sweden's recent form is strong with 7 wins in their last 10 matches compared to Tunisia's 3 wins and 5 losses in the same span, and both teams have no injury or suspension concerns ahead of the match at Monterrey Stadium.

marketHome winThe bookmaker consensus strongly favors a Sweden win with implied probability near 49%, and Sweden's superior recent record (6-2-2 in last 10 versus Tunisia's 3-3-4) supports the market line; however, the visible odds movement shows Sweden's price rising from ~1.82–1.85 to ~1.90–1.99 and Tunisia's shortening from ~4.2–4.33 to ~4.0–4.3, indicating some late money on the underdog and creating modest uncertainty despite Sweden remaining the clear favorite.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: SWE vs TUN. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 48.7%, draw 28.1%, side B win 23.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.62pp, draw +0.53pp, side B win +1.09pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.35 / side B 4; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.2 → side A 1.91 / draw 3.3 / side B 4; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.95 / draw 3.4 / side B 4. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.35, side B 4; william_hill: side A 1.91, draw 3.3, side B 4; bet365: side A 1.95, draw 3.4, side B 4; marathonbet: side A 1.99, draw 3.44, side B 4.3. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T13:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus strongly favors a Sweden win with implied probability near 49%, and Sweden's superior recent record (6-2-2 in last 10 versus Tunisia's 3-3-4) supports the market line; however, the visible odds movement shows Sweden's price rising from ~1.82–1.85 to ~1.90–1.99 and Tunisia's shortening from ~4.2–4.33 to ~4.0–4.3, indicating some late money on the underdog and creating modest uncertainty despite Sweden remaining the clear favorite.

Conclusion note

Sweden are clear bookmaker favorites at around 49% implied probability (odds ~1.90–1.99 across major books), while Tunisia sit at roughly 23% (odds ~4.0–4.3); Sweden's recent form is markedly stronger with 6 wins in their last 10 matches compared to Tunisia's 3 wins, though the market has drifted slightly against Sweden over the past two days, tempering confidence.

Synthesis

Sweden are the clear favourites heading into the match at Monterrey Stadium, backed by a strong recent record of seven wins in ten games compared with Tunisia’s three wins, and by bookmaker odds that still place Sweden at roughly a 49 % chance of victory. However, the market has drifted slightly against Sweden over the last two days and the draw probability has risen, reflecting cautious money on the underdog. With no injury or suspension concerns for either side, the form advantage and odds point to a Sweden win, but the neutral venue and the modest odds shift keep the confidence moderate. A plausible scenario is Sweden applying early pressure and securing a narrow 1‑0 lead, though a tight contest cannot be ruled out.

Reasoning summary: Both supplied perspectives select Sweden to win, with confidences of 0.62 (rational) and 0.55 (market). Combining these yields an overall win probability of about 0.58, while the draw and Tunisia win each receive roughly 0.24 and 0.18 respectively, reflecting the noted odds drift and market caution. The most likely exact scores are Sweden 1‑0 Tunisia, Sweden 2‑1 Tunisia, and a goalless draw, with the first two outcomes accounting for the bulk of the win probability.