MiMo V2.5 Pro · Qatar vs Switzerland

QatarvsSwitzerland
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win60%Miss
BetAway win$440Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$440
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Away win

Both recent match form and odds market sentiment strongly favor Switzerland. Qatar have failed to win any of their last 10 matches and score very few goals, while Switzerland have shown consistent attacking output against quality opponents. The bookmaker consensus gives Switzerland a 55.4% implied win probability. The primary uncertainty is whether Qatar can use home advantage to defy their poor form, but the evidence points to a Swiss victory.

Bet
Away win$4402 bets
Net P&L-$440
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $350
    odds 1.74Settled: loss-$350

    Betting rationale：Switzerland win with normal conviction. Qatar are in abysmal form (no wins in 10 matches, minimal goals) while Switzerland have shown consistent attacking quality against strong opponents. Neutral Vancouver venue removes any Qatar advantage. Model gives 60% Swiss win probability with +2.5% edge at Pinnacle 1.740. Fair price on the clearly superior team in a World Cup group opener.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,191.1

  • Correct score 0-1Correct scoreSource prediction: Actionable

    Correct score 0-1

    $90
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$90

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction with correct-score satellite. Qatar's abysmal attacking form (1 goal in 5 matches, no wins) suggests they won't score. Switzerland's quality edge is clear but they tend toward controlled professional wins rather than blowouts. The 1x2 market offers zero edge (model and market both at 82%), so a 0-1 correct score at 7.00 odds captures the match script with genuine asymmetry. Modest satellite stake reflecting the lottery-ticket nature of correct score bets.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,191.1

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 25%Away win 60%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-1
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - Qatar's recent form is deeply concerning — winless in their last 5 (and indeed last 10 visible matches), with just 1 goal scored. Switzerland show consistent attacking output (12 goals in 5), competitive results against strong teams, and a 36-place FIFA ranking advantage. The form gap is among the widest observable in this fixture's context. Some uncertainty remains because tournament openers can be unpredictable and friendlies imperfectly reflect competitive readiness, which moderates confidenc
  • - Market strongly favors Switzerland at 55.4% implied probability, consistent with the massive form gap: Qatar has zero wins in 10 matches with minimal goal output, while Switzerland has won 4 of 10 with prolific scoring against quality opposition. Despite significant odds movement suggesting some confidence in Qatar (likely host-nation factor or market correction), both market sentiment and recent results point to a Swiss victory.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 196.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.95Log loss 1.39

Meta thinking

  • Recent Match Form AnalysisInvestigate the last 5 match results for Qatar and Switzerland, focusing on outcomes, scorelines, and competition types to assess current performance trends and consistency.
  • Odds Market Sentiment AnalysisExamine the captured odds data to understand the market's implied probabilities for match outcomes and identify any potential contrasts or alignments with recent team form indicators.

Tokens: 3381

Perspectives

Recent Match Form AnalysisAway winQatar's recent form is deeply concerning — winless in their last 5 (and indeed last 10 visible matches), with just 1 goal scored. Switzerland show consistent attacking output (12 goals in 5), competitive results against strong teams, and a 36-place FIFA ranking advantage. The form gap is among the widest observable in this fixture's context. Some uncertainty remains because tournament openers can be unpredictable and friendlies imperfectly reflect competitive readiness, which moderates confidenc60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Match Form Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Qatar vs Switzerland. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T12:00:00-07:00. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Switzerland: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Switzerland: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 19.1%, draw 25.5%, side B win 55.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T08:15:34Z -> 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +12.24pp, draw +10.45pp, side B win -22.69pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 14 / draw 6 / side B 1.22 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.7; william_hill side A 13 / draw 6 / side B 1.2 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.67; bet365 side A 12 / draw 6.5 / side B 1.22 → side A 5 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.8, draw 3.65, side B 1.7; william_hill: side A 4.8, draw 3.6, side B 1.67; bet365: side A 5, draw 3.75, side B 1.7; marathonbet: side A 5.15, draw 3.8, side B 1.71. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-27T14:30:00Z, competition Gulf Cup of Nations, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Switzerland:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Jordan, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 3-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-11T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-21T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Spain, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Qatar's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 55. points 1454.96; previous rank 56; previous points 1454.96; rated matches 69; confederation AFC.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Switzerland's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 19. points 1649.4; previous rank 18; previous points 1654.69; rated matches 54; confederation UEFA.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Qatar's recent form is deeply concerning — winless in their last 5 (and indeed last 10 visible matches), with just 1 goal scored. Switzerland show consistent attacking output (12 goals in 5), competitive results against strong teams, and a 36-place FIFA ranking advantage. The form gap is among the widest observable in this fixture's context. Some uncertainty remains because tournament openers can be unpredictable and friendlies imperfectly reflect competitive readiness, which moderates confidenc

Conclusion note

Qatar's last 5 matches show alarming form: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, scoring only 1 goal while conceding 6 — including a home loss to Palestine (0-1) and a 0-3 home defeat to Tunisia in the Arab Cup. Switzerland's last 5 tell a very different story: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their only defeat was a narrow 3-4 against Germany, and they posted convincing wins over the USA (4-0 away) and Jordan (4-1 home). Qatar are ranked 55th by FIFA versus Switzerland's 19th, a 36-place gap that aligns with the form disparity. Qatar's chronic inability to score against modest opposition contrasts sharply with Switzerland's prolific attack, even against higher-quality opponents. Bookmaker consensus gives Switzerland an implied 55.4% win probability.

Odds Market Sentiment AnalysisAway winMarket strongly favors Switzerland at 55.4% implied probability, consistent with the massive form gap: Qatar has zero wins in 10 matches with minimal goal output, while Switzerland has won 4 of 10 with prolific scoring against quality opposition. Despite significant odds movement suggesting some confidence in Qatar (likely host-nation factor or market correction), both market sentiment and recent results point to a Swiss victory.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Odds Market Sentiment Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Qatar vs Switzerland. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T12:00:00-07:00. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Switzerland: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Switzerland: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 19.1%, draw 25.5%, side B win 55.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T08:15:34Z -> 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +12.24pp, draw +10.45pp, side B win -22.69pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 14 / draw 6 / side B 1.22 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.7; william_hill side A 13 / draw 6 / side B 1.2 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.67; bet365 side A 12 / draw 6.5 / side B 1.22 → side A 5 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.8, draw 3.65, side B 1.7; william_hill: side A 4.8, draw 3.6, side B 1.67; bet365: side A 5, draw 3.75, side B 1.7; marathonbet: side A 5.15, draw 3.8, side B 1.71. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-27T14:30:00Z, competition Gulf Cup of Nations, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Switzerland:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Jordan, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 3-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-11T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-21T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Spain, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 19.1%, draw 25.5%, side B win 55.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T08:15:34Z -> 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +12.24pp, draw +10.45pp, side B win -22.69pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 14 / draw 6 / side B 1.22 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.7; william_hill side A 13 / draw 6 / side B 1.2 → side A 4.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.67; bet365 side A 12 / draw 6.5 / side B 1.22 → side A 5 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.8, draw 3.65, side B 1.7; william_hill: side A 4.8, draw 3.6, side B 1.67; bet365: side A 5, draw 3.75, side B 1.7; marathonbet: side A 5.15, draw 3.8, side B 1.71. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Market strongly favors Switzerland at 55.4% implied probability, consistent with the massive form gap: Qatar has zero wins in 10 matches with minimal goal output, while Switzerland has won 4 of 10 with prolific scoring against quality opposition. Despite significant odds movement suggesting some confidence in Qatar (likely host-nation factor or market correction), both market sentiment and recent results point to a Swiss victory.

Conclusion note

The odds market assigns Switzerland a 55.4% implied win probability across 14 bookmakers, with lines at 1.67-1.71. Despite notable line movement narrowing the gap (Qatar's implied probability rose from ~7% to 19.1%), Switzerland remains the clear market favorite. This sentiment aligns with Qatar's poor recent form: 0 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses in their last 10 matches with just 5 goals scored. Switzerland's form is substantially stronger at 4-4-2 with 21 goals scored, including convincing wins over USA (4-0), Mexico (4-2), and Jordan (4-1).

Synthesis

Both recent match form and odds market sentiment strongly favor Switzerland. Qatar have failed to win any of their last 10 matches and score very few goals, while Switzerland have shown consistent attacking output against quality opponents. The bookmaker consensus gives Switzerland a 55.4% implied win probability. The primary uncertainty is whether Qatar can use home advantage to defy their poor form, but the evidence points to a Swiss victory.

Reasoning summary: Switzerland's superior form (12 goals in 5 matches vs Qatar's 1) and market support (55.4% implied probability) align to indicate a Swiss win. Qatar's chronic scoring struggles make a draw or win unlikely.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 196.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.relevance 0.00