GLM-5.1 · USA vs Paraguay

USAvsParaguay
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win50%Hit
BetHome win$270Aligned
Post-match result4-1
Net P&L+$310.5
PredictionConfidence: 50%
Home win

All three perspectives converge on a USA win. Bookmaker consensus places USA at ~45.7% implied win probability with a ~21pp margin over Paraguay (~24.8%), and no odds divergence across 14 bookmakers signals a stable market view. Opposition-quality adjustment strengthens the case: USA's four losses all came against elite European sides (Germany, Portugal, Belgium), while their wins include a 5-1 victory over Uruguay, meaning their raw 5W-1D-4L understates true form. Paraguay's 3W-1D-6L record overstates their level, as wins came against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) and losses include moderate sides (Costa Rica, South Korea). The November 2025 H2H friendly (USA 2-1 Paraguay) is a thin sample but directionally consistent. USA's host-nation venue advantage at SoFi Stadium is present at a moderate premium, not outsized. Key uncertainty: the elevated draw probability (~29.5%) reflects USA's mixed conversion of home advantage, and all recent data comes from friendlies rather than competitive fixtures, limiting confidence. A likely scenario is USA controlling possession and generating chances but needing a second goal to secure the result, with Paraguay capable of equalizing if USA's finishing is inconsistent — hence 2-1 as the most probable scoreline, mirroring the H2H pattern.

Bet
Home win$270
Net P&L+$310.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $270
    odds 2.15Settled: win+$310.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: cold value with moderate conviction. Match script: USA as host nation at SoFi Stadium faces Paraguay, whose recent wins came against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) while their losses include moderate sides. USA's losses all came against elite European sides (Germany, Portugal, Belgium), so their underlying quality is better than raw form suggests. The prediction converges on USA controlling possession and likely needing a second goal to secure it — the 2-1 pattern fits. Only positi

    Payout: $580.5 · Balance after: $8,669.5

Post-match result4-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 50%Draw 27%Away win 23%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - Market consensus firmly favors USA (~45.7%) over Paraguay (~24.8%) with a ~21pp margin and no bookmaker divergence. Host-nation premium is present but moderate, not outsized. Paraguay's recent friendly wins are discounted by the market, consistent with their poor competitive record. Draw probability at 29.5% is notably high, reflecting uncertainty about USA converting home advantage given mixed form. Slight odds movement is negligible and does not change the picture. USA win is the most defensib
  • - Adjusting recent results for opponent quality, USA's losses are all against elite European sides so their raw 4-loss record understates true form; Paraguay's wins are against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) so their raw 3-win record overstates true form, and their losses include moderate sides (Costa Rica, South Korea). Combined with USA's H2H win (2-1 in Nov 2025) and home-nation venue advantage, the adjusted form comparison favors USA. Confidence is moderated by the fact that all recent da
  • - Single H2H result (USA 2-1 Paraguay, Nov 2025 friendly) is too limited a sample for strong tactical or psychological inference, but it directionally supports USA as favorite. Bookmaker odds (USA ~45.7%) show minimal movement, indicating H2H is not a major odds driver. Combined with host-nation venue advantage and Paraguay's weaker recent record, a slight lean toward USA win is justified, though confidence is tempered by the thin H2H sample and USA's inconsistent form.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson fo
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.38Log loss 0.69

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds AssessmentInvestigate the 14 observed odds to extract implied probabilities and market positioning. Check whether odds reflect a host-nation premium for USA and how the market weighs Paraguay's recent winning run. Identify the margin the market assigns between the sides and any consensus or divergence across bookmakers.
  • Recent Form and Opposition QualityCompare each team's recent results while adjusting for opponent strength. USA's losses came against top European sides (Germany, Portugal, Belgium), while wins were against Senegal and Uruguay. Paraguay beat Nicaragua, Greece, and Mexico but lost to Morocco. Assess whether raw win-loss records overstate or understate either side's true form level.
  • Recent Head-to-Head SignalExamine the captured November 2025 result where USA beat Paraguay 2-1. Evaluate whether this single recent meeting provides a meaningful tactical or psychological signal, or whether the sample is too limited to draw conclusions. Cross-reference with odds data to see if bookmakers have incorporated this history.

Tokens: 2734

Perspectives

Market Odds AssessmentHome winMarket consensus firmly favors USA (~45.7%) over Paraguay (~24.8%) with a ~21pp margin and no bookmaker divergence. Host-nation premium is present but moderate, not outsized. Paraguay's recent friendly wins are discounted by the market, consistent with their poor competitive record. Draw probability at 29.5% is notably high, reflecting uncertainty about USA converting home advantage given mixed form. Slight odds movement is negligible and does not change the picture. USA win is the most defensib55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs PAR. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T18:00:00-07:00. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-06T21:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Paraguay:

    • 2026-06-05T22:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-06-29T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Brazil, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2024-06-24T22:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Market consensus firmly favors USA (~45.7%) over Paraguay (~24.8%) with a ~21pp margin and no bookmaker divergence. Host-nation premium is present but moderate, not outsized. Paraguay's recent friendly wins are discounted by the market, consistent with their poor competitive record. Draw probability at 29.5% is notably high, reflecting uncertainty about USA converting home advantage given mixed form. Slight odds movement is negligible and does not change the picture. USA win is the most defensib

Conclusion note

The 14-bookmaker odds consensus positions USA as a clear but moderate favorite at 45.7% implied probability, with a ~21 percentage-point margin over Paraguay at 24.8%. The draw sits at 29.5%, which is relatively elevated. Bookmaker lines are tightly clustered (USA odds 2.00–2.13, draw 3.20–3.32, Paraguay 3.70–3.92) with no significant divergence, indicating a stable and unified market view. The slight movement between the two visible update points (USA +0.21pp, draw –0.34pp, Paraguay +0.14pp) is marginal and does not alter the overall positioning. USA's host-nation status appears baked into the 45.7% level at a modest premium rather than an excessive one, consistent with their mixed recent form (5W-1D-4L, including losses to Germany, Portugal, Belgium). Paraguay's recent friendly wins (Nicaragua, Greece, Mexico) have not shifted the market's assessment meaningfully — the 24.8% implied probability reflects continued skepticism about their competitive-level quality, given poor Copa America results and a loss to USA in the only recorded head-to-head meeting (2-1 in November 2025). The elevated draw probability and USA's inconsistent form limit confidence in the favorite.

Recent Form and Opposition QualityHome winAdjusting recent results for opponent quality, USA's losses are all against elite European sides so their raw 4-loss record understates true form; Paraguay's wins are against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) so their raw 3-win record overstates true form, and their losses include moderate sides (Costa Rica, South Korea). Combined with USA's H2H win (2-1 in Nov 2025) and home-nation venue advantage, the adjusted form comparison favors USA. Confidence is moderated by the fact that all recent da58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Opposition Quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs PAR. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T18:00:00-07:00. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-06T21:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Paraguay:

    • 2026-06-05T22:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-06-29T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Brazil, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2024-06-24T22:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Adjusting recent results for opponent quality, USA's losses are all against elite European sides so their raw 4-loss record understates true form; Paraguay's wins are against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) so their raw 3-win record overstates true form, and their losses include moderate sides (Costa Rica, South Korea). Combined with USA's H2H win (2-1 in Nov 2025) and home-nation venue advantage, the adjusted form comparison favors USA. Confidence is moderated by the fact that all recent da

Conclusion note

USA's recent record of 5W-1D-4L looks middling in raw terms, but all four losses came against top-tier European opposition (Germany 1-2, Portugal 0-2, Belgium 2-5) or a respectable South Korea side. Their wins include a convincing 5-1 victory over strong Uruguay and a 3-2 win over decent Senegal, suggesting their true form level is higher than the raw win rate implies. Paraguay's 3W-1D-6L record appears weak outright, and opposition-quality adjustment makes it look worse: their wins are over Nicaragua (very weak), Greece (moderate), and Mexico (decent), while they lost to moderate sides like Costa Rica and South Korea alongside stronger foes Brazil and Colombia. Paraguay's wins overstate their true level. USA also beat Paraguay 2-1 in their November 2025 head-to-head friendly and enjoys home-nation advantage at SoFi Stadium. No injuries or suspensions affect either side. The bookmaker consensus assigns USA ~45.7% implied win probability. After adjusting for opposition strength, USA's form is clearly superior to Paraguay's, supporting a USA win, though moderate uncertainty remains given all recent data comes from friendlies rather than competitive fixtures.

Recent Head-to-Head SignalHome winSingle H2H result (USA 2-1 Paraguay, Nov 2025 friendly) is too limited a sample for strong tactical or psychological inference, but it directionally supports USA as favorite. Bookmaker odds (USA ~45.7%) show minimal movement, indicating H2H is not a major odds driver. Combined with host-nation venue advantage and Paraguay's weaker recent record, a slight lean toward USA win is justified, though confidence is tempered by the thin H2H sample and USA's inconsistent form.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Head-to-Head Signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs PAR. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T18:00:00-07:00. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Paraguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-06T21:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Paraguay:

    • 2026-06-05T22:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-06-29T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Brazil, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2024-06-24T22:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Single H2H result (USA 2-1 Paraguay, Nov 2025 friendly) is too limited a sample for strong tactical or psychological inference, but it directionally supports USA as favorite. Bookmaker odds (USA ~45.7%) show minimal movement, indicating H2H is not a major odds driver. Combined with host-nation venue advantage and Paraguay's weaker recent record, a slight lean toward USA win is justified, though confidence is tempered by the thin H2H sample and USA's inconsistent form.

Conclusion note

The only captured head-to-head meeting is the November 2025 friendly where USA beat Paraguay 2-1 at Subaru Park. A single match is too limited to yield meaningful tactical or psychological conclusions — it is one friendly result, not a sustained pattern. However, it directionally aligns with other available evidence: USA is the host nation playing at SoFi Stadium, and bookmaker consensus gives USA approximately 45.7% implied win probability versus Paraguay's 24.8%. Odds movement across the two captured update times is minimal (USA +0.21pp), suggesting bookmakers are not strongly reweighting on this H2H alone. USA's recent form is mixed (5W-1D-4L in 10 friendlies) and Paraguay's is similarly uneven (4W-1D-5L), so neither team has a convincing form edge. The H2H signal is weak but consistent with USA's slight overall advantage as host, making a USA win the most defensible pick despite limited confidence.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on a USA win. Bookmaker consensus places USA at ~45.7% implied win probability with a ~21pp margin over Paraguay (~24.8%), and no odds divergence across 14 bookmakers signals a stable market view. Opposition-quality adjustment strengthens the case: USA's four losses all came against elite European sides (Germany, Portugal, Belgium), while their wins include a 5-1 victory over Uruguay, meaning their raw 5W-1D-4L understates true form. Paraguay's 3W-1D-6L record overstates their level, as wins came against weak opposition (Nicaragua, Greece) and losses include moderate sides (Costa Rica, South Korea). The November 2025 H2H friendly (USA 2-1 Paraguay) is a thin sample but directionally consistent. USA's host-nation venue advantage at SoFi Stadium is present at a moderate premium, not outsized. Key uncertainty: the elevated draw probability (~29.5%) reflects USA's mixed conversion of home advantage, and all recent data comes from friendlies rather than competitive fixtures, limiting confidence. A likely scenario is USA controlling possession and generating chances but needing a second goal to secure the result, with Paraguay capable of equalizing if USA's finishing is inconsistent — hence 2-1 as the most probable scoreline, mirroring the H2H pattern.

Reasoning summary: Unified directional signal across all perspectives for USA win. Market consensus (~45.7% USA) is stable with no bookmaker divergence. Form adjustment clearly favors USA: losses vs elite opposition deflate raw record, while Paraguay's wins vs weak opposition inflate theirs. H2H friendly result (USA 2-1) is thin but consistent. Home advantage is real but moderate. Draw risk is elevated (~29.5%) due to USA's inconsistency and friendlies-only evidence, keeping confidence moderate rather than high.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forelevance 0.00