DeepSeek V4 Pro · USA vs Paraguay

1. Analysis goal

   Recent Form & Head-to-Head

2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

3. Check match details

   #2

   Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs PAR. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T18:00:00-07:00. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

4. Check availability facts

   #3

   Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

   • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
   • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
   • Paraguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
   • Paraguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

5. Compare bookmaker consensus

   #4

   Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

6. Check detailed weather

   #5

   Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

7. Check head-to-head

   #6

   Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

   • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

8. Check recent form

   #7

   Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

   • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
   • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
   • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
   • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
   • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
   • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
   • 2025-09-06T21:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

9. Check recent form

   #8

   Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Paraguay:

   • 2026-06-05T22:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
   • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2026-03-27T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
   • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2025-10-14T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
   • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
   • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2024-06-29T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Brazil, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
   • 2024-06-24T22:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

10. Check head-to-head

    #9

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. USA recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 5. record 2W-0D-3L；goals for/against 11/12, per-match 2.2/2.4。 Stat averages: shots 11.6, shots on target 4.2, possession 47.2, corners 5.4, fouls 9.6, yellow cards 1.2, red cards 0, passes 367.8, pass accuracy 83.8. Event sample: scored first in 3, conceded first in 2, penalty events 0/2, 86 substitution events, average minute 62. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 5; formations recorded: 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1).

12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Paraguay recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 5. record 3W-0D-2L；goals for/against 9/5, per-match 1.8/1.0。 Stat averages: shots 10.67, shots on target 5.67, possession 36.67, corners 4.67, fouls 10.67, yellow cards 3, passes 320, pass accuracy 75.67. Event sample: scored first in 3, conceded first in 2, penalty events 1/1, 66 substitution events, average minute 65. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 5; formations recorded: 4-3-3 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. USA's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 16. points 1673.13; previous rank 15; previous points 1681.88; rated matches 73; confederation CONCACAF.

14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Paraguay's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 40. points 1503.5; previous rank 40; previous points 1501.5; rated matches 48; confederation CONMEBOL.

15. Check tournament context

    #14

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. USA vs Paraguay group context: Group D; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Australia 0 pts/0 played; Paraguay 0 pts/0 played; Türkiye 0 pts/0 played; USA 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Australia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Paraguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Türkiye can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; USA can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: USA vs Paraguay; Australia vs Türkiye; USA vs Australia; Türkiye vs Paraguay. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

16. Check history match detail

    #15

    History match detail: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Historical match detail for USA: 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, Friendlies, home, against Paraguay, score 2-1, result win.

    • Key events:
      • 4' goal for G. Reyna Normal Goal
      • 10' goal against A. Arce Normal Goal
      • 26' card for M. Robinson Yellow Card
      • 36' card for G. Reyna Yellow Card
      • 40' card against D. Gonzalez Yellow Card
      • 61' substitution D. Gonzalez Substitution 1
    • Team statistics: shots 8, shots on target 3, possession 55%, corners 5, yellow cards 2.
    • Player notes: Giovanni Reyna: rating 7.9, 1 goal(s), 1 shot(s), 1 on target, 1 yellow card(s)；Folarin Balogun: rating 7.2, 1 goal(s), 2 shot(s), 1 on target；Maximilian Arfsten: rating 7.3, 1 assist(s)。

17. Recent Form & Head-to-Head perspective analysis for USA vs Paraguay: USA last 5 matches (all home): 2W-0D-3L, GF 11, GA 12. Wins over Senegal (3-2) and Uruguay (5-1); losses to Germany (1-2), Portugal (0-2), Belgium (2-5). All three losses came against elite European sides; against CONMEBOL/African opponents of comparable or lower rank, USA won. Paraguay last 5 matches (mixed venues): 3W-0D-2L, GF 9, GA 5. Wins over Nicaragua (4-0 home), Greece (1-0 away), Mexico (2-1 away); losses to Morocco (1

18. USA last 5: 2W-3L (GF 11, GA 12) — losses only to elite European teams; wins vs Senegal, Uruguay. Paraguay last 5: 3W-2L (GF 9, GA 5) — wins vs Nicaragua, Greece, Mexico; losses vs Morocco, USA. H2H: USA 2-1 Paraguay (Nov 2025, home). Opposition quality explains USA's worse W-L record; against similar-tier sides USA consistently wins. Home advantage and higher FIFA ranking (16 vs 40) support USA. Paraguay's defensive solidity and away wins add uncertainty, capping confidence at moderate.

USA's recent defeats (Germany, Portugal, Belgium) all came against elite European sides; against opponents closer to Paraguay's level, USA beat Senegal, Uruguay and Paraguay itself. Paraguay's last five show wins over weaker or mid-tier teams (Nicaragua, Greece, Mexico) and losses to the two strongest opponents faced (Morocco, USA). The only recent head-to-head (November 2025) was a 2-1 USA home win. USA enjoy home advantage as host nation in Los Angeles, where all their recent fixtures have been played. Paraguay's away resilience is noted, but the overall form and opposition-quality gap, combined with the direct H2H result, point to a USA win.

1. Analysis goal

   Market Odds & Betting Sentiment

2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

3. Check match details

   #2

   Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs PAR. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T18:00:00-07:00. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

4. Check availability facts

   #3

   Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

   • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
   • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
   • Paraguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
   • Paraguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

5. Compare bookmaker consensus

   #4

   Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

6. Check detailed weather

   #5

   Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

7. Check head-to-head

   #6

   Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

   • 2025-11-15, United States vs PAR, score 2-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': None, 'name': 'Subaru Park'}. (full detail via reference hist-2fb2ba49eb)

8. Check recent form

   #7

   Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

   • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
   • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
   • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
   • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
   • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
   • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
   • 2025-09-06T21:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

9. Check recent form

   #8

   Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Paraguay:

   • 2026-06-05T22:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
   • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2026-03-27T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
   • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
   • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2025-10-14T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
   • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
   • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
   • 2024-06-29T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Brazil, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
   • 2024-06-24T22:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 45.7%, draw 29.5%, side B win 24.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.34pp, side B win +0.14pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.12 / draw 3.1 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.08 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7 → side A 2 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.7; bet365 side A 2.1 / draw 3.2 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.1 / draw 3.25 / side B 3.7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.08, draw 3.2, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2, draw 3.2, side B 3.7; bet365: side A 2.1, draw 3.25, side B 3.7; marathonbet: side A 2.13, draw 3.32, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 7; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.95.

11. Check tournament context

    #10

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. USA vs Paraguay group context: Group D; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Australia 0 pts/0 played; Paraguay 0 pts/0 played; Türkiye 0 pts/0 played; USA 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Australia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Paraguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Türkiye can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; USA can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: USA vs Paraguay; Australia vs Türkiye; USA vs Australia; Türkiye vs Paraguay. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. USA's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 16. points 1673.13; previous rank 15; previous points 1681.88; rated matches 73; confederation CONCACAF.

13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Paraguay's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 40. points 1503.5; previous rank 40; previous points 1501.5; rated matches 48; confederation CONMEBOL.

14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

15. 14-bookmaker consensus gives USA 45.7% implied win probability versus 29.5% draw and 24.8% Paraguay. Odds are stable with negligible recent movement and tight cross-bookmaker dispersion. No Asian handicap data available; over/under 0.5 is trivial. The market signals a moderate home-favorite edge but respects the draw. The consensus favours USA, and no value signal argues against it.

Across 14 bookmakers, the consensus implied probabilities are USA 45.7%, Draw 29.5%, Paraguay 24.8%. Odds are tightly clustered (USA 2.00–2.13, Draw 3.20–3.32, Paraguay 3.70–3.92) with minimal movement over the last update window, indicating a stable market. The market prices USA as a clear but not overwhelming favorite; no sharp moves or value dislocations are visible. In the absence of contradicting signals, the betting consensus points to a USA win as the single most likely outcome.