GLM-5.1 · Norway vs Senegal

NorwayvsSenegal
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win44%Hit
BetBet portfolio$600Bet portfolio
Post-match result3-2
Net P&L-$30
PredictionConfidence: 44%
Home win

Norway enter this group-stage fixture with a clear momentum advantage after their 4-1 World Cup victory over Iraq, while Senegal opened with a 1-3 defeat against France. The bookmaker consensus firmly favors Norway at approximately 43.7% implied probability, and recent odds movement has strengthened that position. However, two factors moderate confidence: Senegal's loss came against notably stronger opposition in France, making a direct form comparison uneven, and the 88% humidity at sea-level East Rutherford poses a stamina challenge for a Norway side accustomed to cooler Scandinavian conditions, whereas Senegal's players are generally more accustomed to humid environments. With no head-to-head history or reported injuries, Norway remains the most defensible pick but at moderate rather than high confidence.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6003 bets
Net P&L-$30
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 2.28Settled: win+$320

    Betting rationale：Norway win — playable conviction stance. Match script: Norway's emphatic 4-1 WC win over Iraq shows attacking sharpness and tournament momentum, while Senegal conceded 3 goals in both their WC loss to France and a friendly loss to USA, revealing defensive fragility against stronger opposition. Model gives Norway +2.1% edge at execution price (2.280) and +3.4% at best market, the only outcome with positive edge. Confidence 46% is moderate; no H2H data and absent lineups temper certainty, so a 3%

    Payout: $570 · Balance after: $9,948.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 3.50Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Adjustment slice: I already hold $150 on draw at 3.600 (excellent price). The only positive execution edge is draw (+0.014 at Pinnacle 3.500). Match script supports it: 91% humidity at MetLife favors West African stamina over Northern European sides, Norway’s 4-1 win was against weak Iraq (inflated form), Senegal’s losses came against France and USA (quality opponents, not intrinsic decline). Adding $200 at 3.500 reinforces the draw conviction while maintaining portfolio balance with the existin

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,948.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 3.60Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Portfolio hedge alongside existing Norway position ($250 at 2.280). Execution draw price 3.600 offers the best model edge (+0.002) and strong payout asymmetry for a plausible scenario: 88% humidity at sea-level East Rutherford saps Norway's Scandinavian-conditioned stamina in the second half, while Senegal showed resilience against France (1-3 loss against top-tier opposition is not a disaster). Norway's 4-1 vs Iraq looks impressive but Iraq are weaker opposition. A draw at 3.600 pays $540 if it

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,948.2

Post-match result3-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 44%Draw 28%Away win 28%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - Fourteen bookmaker observations converge on Norway as the favorite at ~43.7% implied probability, and the trend between the two latest update points slightly strengthened Norway's position while Senegal drifted. No bookmaker divergence is large enough to challenge the direction of the consensus; marathonbet's marginally higher Senegal price (3.42) versus william_hill's lower one (3.20) signals only modest disagreement, not a value inversion. Combined with Norway's superior recent World Cup form
  • - Norway's 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq contrasts sharply with Senegal's 1-3 World Cup loss to France, suggesting a momentum advantage for Norway entering this group-stage fixture. The odds market concurs, with Norway at 43.7% implied probability versus Senegal at 28.6%, and recent movement slightly favoring Norway. However, the opposition quality gap between Iraq and France means the direct comparison is not fully apples-to-apples. Senegal's AFCON record (3-0 wins over Botswana and Benin) and thei
  • - The odds consensus gives Norway the strongest probability at 43.7%, with a small upward movement since the last update, and Norway's recent form includes a convincing 4-1 World Cup win and multiple other victories. However, the high humidity (88%) combined with moderate wind (16.9 km/h) at sea-level East Rutherford could challenge Norway's stamina relative to Senegal, whose players are generally more accustomed to humid environments. With no head-to-head data and no injury or suspension concerns

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.47Log loss 0.82

Meta thinking

  • market odds aggregationExamine the 14 captured odds observations to identify the consensus pricing for Norway vs Senegal and detect any divergence across bookmakers that may signal market disagreement or value angles.
  • recent form and tournament momentumCompare Norway's 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq with Senegal's 1-3 World Cup loss to France, alongside each team's friendly results, to assess whether early tournament form indicates momentum differences or whether friendly-level results temper that signal.
  • weather and venue impactInvestigate how the high humidity (88%), moderate wind (16.9 km/h), and low-altitude East Rutherford setting may influence playing conditions, potential fatigue, and tactical approaches for both sides.

Tokens: 2246

Perspectives

market odds aggregationHome winFourteen bookmaker observations converge on Norway as the favorite at ~43.7% implied probability, and the trend between the two latest update points slightly strengthened Norway's position while Senegal drifted. No bookmaker divergence is large enough to challenge the direction of the consensus; marathonbet's marginally higher Senegal price (3.42) versus william_hill's lower one (3.20) signals only modest disagreement, not a value inversion. Combined with Norway's superior recent World Cup form58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds aggregation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T00:16:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 43.7%, draw 27.7%, side B win 28.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T04:03:19Z -> 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.69pp, draw +0.3pp, side B win -0.99pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.18 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15 → side A 2.2 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15; william_hill side A 2.2 / draw 3.3 / side B 3 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.3 / side B 3.2; bet365 side A 2.15 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.2 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.5 / side B 3.3. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.2, draw 3.4, side B 3.15; william_hill: side A 2.15, draw 3.3, side B 3.2; bet365: side A 2.15, draw 3.5, side B 3.3; marathonbet: side A 2.21, draw 3.55, side B 3.42. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-22T12:11:44Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 21.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 16.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Fourteen bookmaker observations converge on Norway as the favorite at ~43.7% implied probability, and the trend between the two latest update points slightly strengthened Norway's position while Senegal drifted. No bookmaker divergence is large enough to challenge the direction of the consensus; marathonbet's marginally higher Senegal price (3.42) versus william_hill's lower one (3.20) signals only modest disagreement, not a value inversion. Combined with Norway's superior recent World Cup form

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds show a clear consensus favoring Norway at approximately 43.7% implied probability, with Senegal at 28.6% and the draw at 27.7%; the most recent movement further shifted toward Norway (+0.69pp) and away from Senegal (-0.99pp), as seen in william_hill shortening Norway from 2.20 to 2.15 and drifting Senegal from 3.0 to 3.2. Divergence across bookmakers is moderate rather than extreme, with no outlet pricing Senegal near parity with Norway, reinforcing a Norway-favored consensus that aligns with Norway's strong 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq versus Senegal's 1-3 opening loss to France.

recent form and tournament momentumHome winNorway's 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq contrasts sharply with Senegal's 1-3 World Cup loss to France, suggesting a momentum advantage for Norway entering this group-stage fixture. The odds market concurs, with Norway at 43.7% implied probability versus Senegal at 28.6%, and recent movement slightly favoring Norway. However, the opposition quality gap between Iraq and France means the direct comparison is not fully apples-to-apples. Senegal's AFCON record (3-0 wins over Botswana and Benin) and thei56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form and tournament momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T00:16:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 43.7%, draw 27.7%, side B win 28.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T04:03:19Z -> 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.69pp, draw +0.3pp, side B win -0.99pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.18 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15 → side A 2.2 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15; william_hill side A 2.2 / draw 3.3 / side B 3 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.3 / side B 3.2; bet365 side A 2.15 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.2 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.5 / side B 3.3. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.2, draw 3.4, side B 3.15; william_hill: side A 2.15, draw 3.3, side B 3.2; bet365: side A 2.15, draw 3.5, side B 3.3; marathonbet: side A 2.21, draw 3.55, side B 3.42. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-22T12:11:44Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 21.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 16.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Norway's 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq contrasts sharply with Senegal's 1-3 World Cup loss to France, suggesting a momentum advantage for Norway entering this group-stage fixture. The odds market concurs, with Norway at 43.7% implied probability versus Senegal at 28.6%, and recent movement slightly favoring Norway. However, the opposition quality gap between Iraq and France means the direct comparison is not fully apples-to-apples. Senegal's AFCON record (3-0 wins over Botswana and Benin) and thei

Conclusion note

Norway opened the World Cup with a convincing 4-1 victory over Iraq, while Senegal suffered a 1-3 defeat against France, giving Norway a clear early tournament momentum edge; however, Senegal's loss came against stronger opposition and their broader form includes strong AFCON results, which tempers the signal, so confidence remains moderate at 0.56.

weather and venue impactHome winThe odds consensus gives Norway the strongest probability at 43.7%, with a small upward movement since the last update, and Norway's recent form includes a convincing 4-1 World Cup win and multiple other victories. However, the high humidity (88%) combined with moderate wind (16.9 km/h) at sea-level East Rutherford could challenge Norway's stamina relative to Senegal, whose players are generally more accustomed to humid environments. With no head-to-head data and no injury or suspension concerns55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    weather and venue impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T00:16:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 43.7%, draw 27.7%, side B win 28.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T04:03:19Z -> 2026-06-22T08:15:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.69pp, draw +0.3pp, side B win -0.99pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.18 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15 → side A 2.2 / draw 3.4 / side B 3.15; william_hill side A 2.2 / draw 3.3 / side B 3 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.3 / side B 3.2; bet365 side A 2.15 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.2 → side A 2.15 / draw 3.5 / side B 3.3. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.2, draw 3.4, side B 3.15; william_hill: side A 2.15, draw 3.3, side B 3.2; bet365: side A 2.15, draw 3.5, side B 3.3; marathonbet: side A 2.21, draw 3.55, side B 3.42. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-22T12:11:44Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 21.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 16.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. The odds consensus gives Norway the strongest probability at 43.7%, with a small upward movement since the last update, and Norway's recent form includes a convincing 4-1 World Cup win and multiple other victories. However, the high humidity (88%) combined with moderate wind (16.9 km/h) at sea-level East Rutherford could challenge Norway's stamina relative to Senegal, whose players are generally more accustomed to humid environments. With no head-to-head data and no injury or suspension concerns

Conclusion note

Norway are favored by bookmakers at 43.7% implied probability and come off a strong 4-1 World Cup win over Iraq, but the 88% humidity at 21.7°C in East Rutherford poses a potential fatigue risk for a side typically accustomed to cooler Scandinavian conditions, which slightly moderates confidence in a Norway victory.

Synthesis

Norway enter this group-stage fixture with a clear momentum advantage after their 4-1 World Cup victory over Iraq, while Senegal opened with a 1-3 defeat against France. The bookmaker consensus firmly favors Norway at approximately 43.7% implied probability, and recent odds movement has strengthened that position. However, two factors moderate confidence: Senegal's loss came against notably stronger opposition in France, making a direct form comparison uneven, and the 88% humidity at sea-level East Rutherford poses a stamina challenge for a Norway side accustomed to cooler Scandinavian conditions, whereas Senegal's players are generally more accustomed to humid environments. With no head-to-head history or reported injuries, Norway remains the most defensible pick but at moderate rather than high confidence.

Reasoning summary: All three analysis perspectives converge on Norway as the favorite, supported by a 4-1 opening win versus Senegal's 1-3 loss and a consistent bookmaker consensus around 43.7% implied probability. The decisive tradeoff is between Norway's superior recent World Cup form and the environmental disadvantage of high humidity in East Rutherford, which could erode Norway's stamina edge against a Senegal side more accustomed to such conditions. Senegal's stronger opposition in their opening loss further

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50