GLM-5.1 · Tunisia vs Netherlands

TunisiavsNetherlands
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionAway win81%Hit
BetBet portfolio$390Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-3
Net P&L-$156.9
PredictionConfidence: 81%
Away win

All three perspectives unanimously favour a Netherlands victory, anchored by Tunisia's four consecutive heavy defeats—conceding four or more goals in three of those matches—and Netherlands' prolific attacking output including a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 4-0 win over Hungary. The bookmaker consensus of 86% for a Netherlands win corroborates the form and defensive vulnerability assessments. Confidence is moderated slightly by Netherlands' occasional attacking underperformance, as seen in 0-1 losses to Algeria and Germany, and by the roughly 10% draw probability implied by the odds, but Tunisia's defensive fragility and minimal attacking threat make a Netherlands win the overwhelmingly likely outcome.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3903 bets
Net P&L-$156.9
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $210
    odds 1.11Settled: win+$23.1

    Betting rationale：Netherlands are overwhelming favourites with 83% model confidence and devastating form (5-1 over Sweden), while Tunisia have four consecutive heavy losses including 0-4 vs Japan and 1-5 vs Sweden. The class gap is decisive. Rain at Arrowhead adds modest chaos risk but doesn't overturn the structural mismatch. I already hold a $80 draw hedge at 10.56 odds, so adding a Netherlands win creates a balanced portfolio: the draw hedge covers the rain/chaos scenario, while the Netherlands side captures t

    Payout: $233.1 · Balance after: $9,182.9

  • Correct score 0-3Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-3

    $100
    odds 5.40Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Netherlands are dominant with 85% win probability; Tunisia have scored once in five matches and conceded 15 goals. Rain and humidity at Kansas City suit a controlled Dutch side that can exploit set pieces and superior finishing. The model's top predicted score is 0-3 (16% prob) at odds 5.40, offering ~5.4x payout on a highly plausible script. Already holding draw and side_b_win 1x2 positions; a 0-3 correct-score satellite adds payout upside if Netherlands control tempo and Tunisia's attack stays

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,182.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $80
    odds 10.56Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Draw at 10.560 on Pinnacle is the only side with positive execution edge (+2.5%). Netherlands are the clear football favorite but execution price of 1.100 carries a -9.9% model edge — terrible value. Tunisia have been shattered defensively (conceding 4+ in 3 of last 4), making them unbackable despite +2.4% edge at 21.73. The draw angle: Netherlands occasionally underperform in attack (0-1 vs Algeria, draws vs Japan/Ecuador), and with 4 group points they may not push as urgently, while Tunisia ha

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,949.8

Post-match result1-3
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 7%Draw 12%Away win 81%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-3
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The recent-form perspective strongly favours Netherlands: Tunisia conceded four or more goals in three of their last four defeats and offer virtually no attacking threat, whereas Netherlands have demonstrated potent scoring ability (five goals versus Sweden) and remain competitive even in draws. The 86% bookmaker consensus for a Netherlands win aligns with this form gap, though Netherlands' mixed record (a loss to Algeria and a draw with Japan) introduces enough uncertainty to moderate confidenc
  • - The 13 observed odds snapshots show complete cross-bookmaker consistency and zero movement, giving an 86% implied probability for Netherlands, while Tunisia's four straight losses—including three by four or more goals—reinforce that market assessment. The only meaningful uncertainty is the roughly 10% draw probability implied by the consensus and the absence of head-to-head data or weather details, which limits full confidence but does not overturn the dominant signal.
  • - Tunisia's recent defensive record is alarming: 14 goals conceded across their last four matches with three defeats by four or more goals. Netherlands' attacking output includes a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 4-0 win over Hungary, confirming they can exploit a defensively fragile opponent. The odds consensus at 86% for a Netherlands win aligns with the defensive vulnerability versus attacking output comparison, though Netherlands have occasionally underperformed in attack (0-1 vs Algeria, 0-1 vs Ger

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 42.0%; draw 30.0%; Japan win 28.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 0-0 Japan
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.44. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 44.0%; draw 29.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.21

Meta thinking

  • recent formExamine Tunisia's five-match record of four losses and one draw with heavy concessions (0-4, 1-5, 0-5, 0-1) against Netherlands' mixed form (win over Sweden 5-1, draw with Japan, and three other results) to assess how current performance trends may influence the match outcome.
  • market oddsAnalyze the 13 observed odds snapshots already captured to evaluate implied probability distributions for Tunisia vs Netherlands, checking for consistency across bookmakers and identifying whether the odds align with or diverge from the visible recent-form signal.
  • defensive vulnerability versus attacking outputCompare Tunisia's pattern of conceding multiple goals in recent matches with Netherlands' demonstrated ability to score prolifically (5-1 vs Sweden), investigating whether the goal concession and scoring rates suggest a likely range of expected goals in this fixture.

Tokens: 2189

Perspectives

recent formAway winThe recent-form perspective strongly favours Netherlands: Tunisia conceded four or more goals in three of their last four defeats and offer virtually no attacking threat, whereas Netherlands have demonstrated potent scoring ability (five goals versus Sweden) and remain competitive even in draws. The 86% bookmaker consensus for a Netherlands win aligns with this form gap, though Netherlands' mixed record (a loss to Algeria and a draw with Japan) introduces enough uncertainty to moderate confidenc78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.9%, draw 10.1%, side B win 86%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12 → side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12; william_hill side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 8.5, side B 1.12; william_hill: side A 26, draw 9.5, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 26, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 29, draw 9.8, side B 1.11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The recent-form perspective strongly favours Netherlands: Tunisia conceded four or more goals in three of their last four defeats and offer virtually no attacking threat, whereas Netherlands have demonstrated potent scoring ability (five goals versus Sweden) and remain competitive even in draws. The 86% bookmaker consensus for a Netherlands win aligns with this form gap, though Netherlands' mixed record (a loss to Algeria and a draw with Japan) introduces enough uncertainty to moderate confidenc

Conclusion note

Tunisia have lost four of their last five matches with heavy concessions (0-4 to Japan, 1-5 to Sweden, 0-5 to Belgium, 0-1 to Austria) and scored only once in that span, while Netherlands boast a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 2-2 draw with Japan in their World Cup group games, and bookmaker consensus assigns an 86% implied probability to a Netherlands victory.

market oddsAway winThe 13 observed odds snapshots show complete cross-bookmaker consistency and zero movement, giving an 86% implied probability for Netherlands, while Tunisia's four straight losses—including three by four or more goals—reinforce that market assessment. The only meaningful uncertainty is the roughly 10% draw probability implied by the consensus and the absence of head-to-head data or weather details, which limits full confidence but does not overturn the dominant signal.75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.9%, draw 10.1%, side B win 86%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12 → side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12; william_hill side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 8.5, side B 1.12; william_hill: side A 26, draw 9.5, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 26, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 29, draw 9.8, side B 1.11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The 13 observed odds snapshots show complete cross-bookmaker consistency and zero movement, giving an 86% implied probability for Netherlands, while Tunisia's four straight losses—including three by four or more goals—reinforce that market assessment. The only meaningful uncertainty is the roughly 10% draw probability implied by the consensus and the absence of head-to-head data or weather details, which limits full confidence but does not overturn the dominant signal.

Conclusion note

All four sampled bookmakers consistently price Netherlands around 1.10–1.12, producing a consensus implied probability of 86% for a Netherlands win, with no detectable odds movement between the two latest update snapshots, indicating a stable and unanimous market view. This odds signal aligns closely with Tunisia's recent form of four consecutive heavy defeats (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria) versus Netherlands' 5-1 World Cup win over Sweden and a 2-2 draw with Japan.

defensive vulnerability versus attacking outputAway winTunisia's recent defensive record is alarming: 14 goals conceded across their last four matches with three defeats by four or more goals. Netherlands' attacking output includes a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 4-0 win over Hungary, confirming they can exploit a defensively fragile opponent. The odds consensus at 86% for a Netherlands win aligns with the defensive vulnerability versus attacking output comparison, though Netherlands have occasionally underperformed in attack (0-1 vs Algeria, 0-1 vs Ger75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    defensive vulnerability versus attacking output

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.9%, draw 10.1%, side B win 86%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12 → side A 17.5 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.12; william_hill side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1 → side A 26 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 8.5, side B 1.12; william_hill: side A 26, draw 9.5, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 26, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 29, draw 9.8, side B 1.11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Tunisia's recent defensive record is alarming: 14 goals conceded across their last four matches with three defeats by four or more goals. Netherlands' attacking output includes a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 4-0 win over Hungary, confirming they can exploit a defensively fragile opponent. The odds consensus at 86% for a Netherlands win aligns with the defensive vulnerability versus attacking output comparison, though Netherlands have occasionally underperformed in attack (0-1 vs Algeria, 0-1 vs Ger

Conclusion note

Tunisia have conceded four or more goals in three of their last four matches (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium), showing a severe defensive vulnerability pattern, while Netherlands scored five against Sweden and four against Hungary in their recent ten matches, demonstrating prolific attacking output. The bookmaker consensus assigns an 86% implied probability to a Netherlands win, and the combination of Tunisia's concession rates with Netherlands' scoring capability strongly supports a Netherlands victory.

Synthesis

All three perspectives unanimously favour a Netherlands victory, anchored by Tunisia's four consecutive heavy defeats—conceding four or more goals in three of those matches—and Netherlands' prolific attacking output including a 5-1 win over Sweden and a 4-0 win over Hungary. The bookmaker consensus of 86% for a Netherlands win corroborates the form and defensive vulnerability assessments. Confidence is moderated slightly by Netherlands' occasional attacking underperformance, as seen in 0-1 losses to Algeria and Germany, and by the roughly 10% draw probability implied by the odds, but Tunisia's defensive fragility and minimal attacking threat make a Netherlands win the overwhelmingly likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: Tunisia have lost four of their last five matches, conceding 14 goals across their last four defeats with three losses by four or more goals, while scoring only once in that span. Netherlands have demonstrated strong attacking capability with five goals against Sweden and four against Hungary. All three perspectives converge on a Netherlands win, supported by a stable 86% bookmaker consensus. Uncertainty stems from Netherlands' occasional flat attacking performances and the absence of head-to-he

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 42.0%; draw 30.0%; Japan win 28.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 0-0 Japanrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.44. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 44.0%; draw 29.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50