Claude Opus 4.8 · Tunisia vs Netherlands

TunisiavsNetherlands
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionAway win84%Hit
BetBet portfolio$620Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-3
Net P&L-$120.5
PredictionConfidence: 84%
Away win

Netherlands are heavy favorites to beat Tunisia in Kansas City, with bookmakers pricing the Dutch near 1.10 for roughly an 86.6% implied win chance against Tunisia's 3.8%, and the form gap reinforces it as Tunisia have lost four consecutive matches conceding 15 goals while Netherlands thumped Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2. The decisive tradeoff is that overwhelming market and form evidence point to a comfortable Netherlands win, though unconfirmed lineups and the absence of head-to-head and weather data keep this short of certainty. As a tentative hypothesis, Tunisia's leaky defense suggests the Dutch could extend a lead in the second half once they break through.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6203 bets
Net P&L-$120.5
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $450
    odds 1.11Settled: win+$49.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with portfolio balance. Match script: Netherlands are overwhelming favorites (model 85%, market ~88-89% implied) coming off a 5-1 win over Sweden and a draw vs Japan, while Tunisia has lost four straight by heavy scorelines (0-4, 1-5, 0-5, 0-1). Light rain adds only modest variance and should not change the result. The existing open position is a small $90 lottery ticket on side_a_win at 21.73; the dominant probability mass sits on the Dutch win, so I add the core co

    Payout: $499.5 · Balance after: $9,124.85

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Home win

    $90
    odds 21.73Settled: loss-$90

    Betting rationale：Posture: small contrarian/value satellite. The model itself flags the only positive executable edge on Tunisia home win (+0.024 at 21.73 pinnacle), while Netherlands at 1.10 carries a -0.079 edge and offers no payout for the risk. The match script clearly favors a controlled Dutch win given the brutal form gap (Tunisia lost four straight, conceded heavily), so I will not chase a no-value 1.10 favorite. Instead I take a tiny lottery ticket on the only priced value: a compact Tunisia, opening-matc

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,625.35

  • Correct score 0-2Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-2

    $80
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a satellite correct-score satellite. The script is clear: Netherlands are heavy favorites (model 84%, market ~87%) against a Tunisia side that has lost four straight conceding 15 goals. I already hold a side_b_win position at 1.110, so adding more juice on the 1x2 favorite offers poor value (negative edge -0.061). Instead I express the same script via correct score: the model's top scoreline is 0-2 (0.160) at 9.00 odds (implied ~0.111), a genuine value gap, and

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,124.85

Post-match result1-3
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 6%Draw 10%Away win 84%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #30-3

Analysis brief

  • - Tunisia arrive in dreadful form, having lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria) and conceding 15 goals across that run while scoring just once, which signals a defense unable to contain quality attacks. Netherlands by contrast thumped Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in World Cup play, scoring freely. The bookmaker consensus reinforces this, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia.
  • - The market prices Netherlands as overwhelming favorites at roughly 1.10 across bookmakers, implying about 86.6% win probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with a tight spread (side B 1.09-1.10) and minimal movement at the latest update. This aligns with form: Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2 in their opening World Cup matches, while Tunisia has lost four straight including 0-4 to Japan and 1-5 to Sweden, conceding heavily. The decisive tradeoff is that both
  • - Bookmaker consensus is overwhelmingly one-sided, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied versus 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with side B lines around 1.09-1.10 across 14 books. Recent form reinforces the gap: Tunisia have lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 to Japan, 1-5 to Sweden, 0-5 to Belgium, 0-1 to Austria), while Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in the same group. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 46.2%; draw 27.7%; Japan win 26.1%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Netherlands 2-1 Japan
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 46.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 26.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Netherlands 2-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.49. Probability distribution: Sweden win 49.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 23.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.04Log loss 0.17

Meta thinking

  • Recent form contrastCompare recent form of both sides: Tunisia lost their last four (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria), while Netherlands won 5-1 vs Sweden and drew 2-2 vs Japan in World Cup play. Examine goals conceded and scored trends.
  • Market odds signalExamine the 13 captured odds observations to see how the market prices this fixture, including implied probabilities for each outcome and any spread across bookmakers.
  • Lineup and availability data statusBoth sides report zero injuries and lineups returned no rows; assess whether squad availability is confirmed or simply uncaptured, treating absence of lineup data as a limit on confidence.

Tokens: 316

Perspectives

Recent form contrastAway winTunisia arrive in dreadful form, having lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria) and conceding 15 goals across that run while scoring just once, which signals a defense unable to contain quality attacks. Netherlands by contrast thumped Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in World Cup play, scoring freely. The bookmaker consensus reinforces this, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia.85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form contrast

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 19, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.8%, draw 9.6%, side B win 86.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T18:00:17Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.29pp, side B win -0.38pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 21 / draw 9.2 / side B 1.1 → side A 21 / draw 8.6 / side B 1.1; william_hill side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1 → side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.09 → side A 23 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 21, draw 8.6, side B 1.1; william_hill: side A 23, draw 10, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 23, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 26, draw 10, side B 1.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 7.5, 0-2 5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 26, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 6; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 9.5, 0-2 6.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Tunisia arrive in dreadful form, having lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 vs Japan, 1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria) and conceding 15 goals across that run while scoring just once, which signals a defense unable to contain quality attacks. Netherlands by contrast thumped Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in World Cup play, scoring freely. The bookmaker consensus reinforces this, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia.

Conclusion note

Netherlands are strongly favored to beat Tunisia in Kansas City, with bookmaker consensus giving the Dutch about 86.6% implied probability against just 3.8% for Tunisia, mirroring the form gap: Tunisia have lost four straight conceding 15 goals while scoring once, whereas Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2. No injuries or suspensions are recorded for either team, and with head-to-head and weather data uncaptured, the lean rests mainly on form and odds.

Market odds signalAway winThe market prices Netherlands as overwhelming favorites at roughly 1.10 across bookmakers, implying about 86.6% win probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with a tight spread (side B 1.09-1.10) and minimal movement at the latest update. This aligns with form: Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2 in their opening World Cup matches, while Tunisia has lost four straight including 0-4 to Japan and 1-5 to Sweden, conceding heavily. The decisive tradeoff is that both86%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 19, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.8%, draw 9.6%, side B win 86.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T18:00:17Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.29pp, side B win -0.38pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 21 / draw 9.2 / side B 1.1 → side A 21 / draw 8.6 / side B 1.1; william_hill side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1 → side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.09 → side A 23 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 21, draw 8.6, side B 1.1; william_hill: side A 23, draw 10, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 23, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 26, draw 10, side B 1.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 7.5, 0-2 5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 26, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 6; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 9.5, 0-2 6.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The market prices Netherlands as overwhelming favorites at roughly 1.10 across bookmakers, implying about 86.6% win probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with a tight spread (side B 1.09-1.10) and minimal movement at the latest update. This aligns with form: Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2 in their opening World Cup matches, while Tunisia has lost four straight including 0-4 to Japan and 1-5 to Sweden, conceding heavily. The decisive tradeoff is that both

Conclusion note

Netherlands are heavily favored over Tunisia, priced near 1.10 by bookmakers for an implied 86.6% win chance against Tunisia's 3.8%, and the form backs this with the Dutch winning 5-1 over Sweden and drawing Japan while Tunisia have lost four consecutive matches conceding heavily. With lineups, head-to-head and weather not captured, confidence is tempered slightly but the evidence still strongly favors a Netherlands win.

Lineup and availability data statusAway winBookmaker consensus is overwhelmingly one-sided, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied versus 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with side B lines around 1.09-1.10 across 14 books. Recent form reinforces the gap: Tunisia have lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 to Japan, 1-5 to Sweden, 0-5 to Belgium, 0-1 to Austria), while Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in the same group. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Lineup and availability data status

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Netherlands. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, altitude 265 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 19, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 3.8%, draw 9.6%, side B win 86.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T18:00:17Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.29pp, side B win -0.38pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 21 / draw 9.2 / side B 1.1 → side A 21 / draw 8.6 / side B 1.1; william_hill side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1 → side A 23 / draw 10 / side B 1.1; bet365 side A 26 / draw 9.5 / side B 1.09 → side A 23 / draw 9 / side B 1.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 21, draw 8.6, side B 1.1; william_hill: side A 23, draw 10, side B 1.1; bet365: side A 23, draw 9, side B 1.1; marathonbet: side A 26, draw 10, side B 1.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 7.5, 0-2 5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 26, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 6; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 9.5, 0-2 6.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Bookmaker consensus is overwhelmingly one-sided, pricing Netherlands at roughly 86.6% implied versus 3.8% for Tunisia and 9.6% for the draw, with side B lines around 1.09-1.10 across 14 books. Recent form reinforces the gap: Tunisia have lost their last four matches by heavy margins (0-4 to Japan, 1-5 to Sweden, 0-5 to Belgium, 0-1 to Austria), while Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 and drew 2-2 with Japan in the same group. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no

Conclusion note

Netherlands are strong favorites at Kansas City Stadium, with bookmakers implying about an 86.6% win chance against Tunisia's 3.8%, and recent results back this up as Tunisia have shipped heavy defeats (0-4, 1-5, 0-5) while the Dutch thrashed Sweden 5-1. With no injuries or suspensions listed for either side but lineups uncaptured and no head-to-head on record, the squad picture is unconfirmed, so confidence is trimmed even though the lean toward Netherlands is clear.

Synthesis

Netherlands are heavy favorites to beat Tunisia in Kansas City, with bookmakers pricing the Dutch near 1.10 for roughly an 86.6% implied win chance against Tunisia's 3.8%, and the form gap reinforces it as Tunisia have lost four consecutive matches conceding 15 goals while Netherlands thumped Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2. The decisive tradeoff is that overwhelming market and form evidence point to a comfortable Netherlands win, though unconfirmed lineups and the absence of head-to-head and weather data keep this short of certainty. As a tentative hypothesis, Tunisia's leaky defense suggests the Dutch could extend a lead in the second half once they break through.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives align on a Netherlands win, citing bookmaker consensus near 86.6% implied probability versus only 3.8% for Tunisia, plus a stark form contrast as Tunisia have lost four straight conceding 15 goals while the Dutch beat Sweden 5-1 and drew Japan 2-2. No injuries or suspensions are recorded, but uncaptured lineups, head-to-head and weather data trim confidence slightly below the raw market figure.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 46.2%; draw 27.7%; Japan win 26.1%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Netherlands 2-1 Japanrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.46. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 46.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 26.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Netherlands 2-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.49. Probability distribution: Sweden win 49.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 23.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50