MiMo V2.5 Pro · Netherlands vs Sweden

NetherlandsvsSweden
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win50%Hit
BetBet portfolio$500Reverse
Post-match result5-1
Net P&L-$500
PredictionConfidence: 50%
Home win

The Netherlands are favored by bookmakers with a 55.5% implied win probability, but Sweden's strong recent form, including a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia, and Netherlands' pattern of draws in their last five matches create uncertainty. While market consensus points to a Dutch victory, the attacking threat from Sweden and Netherlands' inconsistency make this a competitive match.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5003 bets
Net P&L-$500
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $200
    odds 4.54Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Football posture: contrarian upset/chaos shot. Match script: Sweden arrive with extraordinary attacking momentum (14 goals in last 5 games, 5-1 World Cup opener vs Tunisia) while Netherlands' recent form is mixed with draws against Japan and only one win in five. World Cup group stages reward confidence and momentum—Sweden's attack is clicking and they'll play with belief. Netherlands' 50% model probability vs 54.5% market implied leaves modest +3.0% edge on Sweden at Pinnacle execution price of

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,157.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 4.11Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Draw trap match script: Netherlands have drawn 3 of last 5 and show inconsistency. Model shows +5.7% edge on draw at execution (30% model prob vs ~24% market). Humid Houston conditions may slow tempo. Adding to existing draw position for a ~$500 total match exposure (~7.7% of bankroll), reflecting moderate-to-strong conviction supported by edge, form pattern, and environmental factors.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,157.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 4.11Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Football hedge strategy: Netherlands have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, showing a persistent inability to close out games. Sweden enter in excellent form after a 5-1 demolition of Tunisia. Existing $200 Sweden position captures the upset chaos; this $100 draw hedge covers Netherlands' well-documented stalemate tendency. Thunderstorm conditions in Houston could further disrupt the favorites. Thin edge (+0.7%) but strong match script justifies a small satellite hedge to create a "Netherlands fa

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,157.5

Post-match result5-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 50%Draw 30%Away win 20%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Netherlands as moderate favorites at 55.5% implied probability versus Sweden's 20.5%, with consistent odds across all 14 samples showing minimal recent movement. Sweden's strong 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia and Netherlands' mixed recent results (including a draw with Japan and loss to Algeria) create some tension with the market view, which warrants slightly reduced confidence from a pure odds-based assessment. The draw probability of 24
  • - Netherlands' recent form is poor with only one win in five and three draws, scoring just 1.2 goals per game, while Sweden have won three of five averaging 2.8 goals per game including a dominant World Cup opening win over Tunisia. The form gap is significant and favors Sweden, but the draw aligns with Netherlands' frequent stalemates and the competitive balance at a neutral venue in Houston, though bookmaker consensus still favors Netherlands which reduces conviction.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Neth
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.38Log loss 0.69

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsAnalyze the 14 captured odds to determine implied win probabilities and market sentiment for the match.
  • Recent formExamine the last five match results for Netherlands and Sweden to assess consistency, scoring trends, and momentum.

Tokens: 3127

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winThe decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Netherlands as moderate favorites at 55.5% implied probability versus Sweden's 20.5%, with consistent odds across all 14 samples showing minimal recent movement. Sweden's strong 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia and Netherlands' mixed recent results (including a draw with Japan and loss to Algeria) create some tension with the market view, which warrants slightly reduced confidence from a pure odds-based assessment. The draw probability of 2460%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Netherlands vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z. Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 55.5%, draw 24%, side B win 20.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z -> 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.7 / draw 3.95 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.7, draw 4, side B 4.6; marathonbet: side A 1.74, draw 4.15, side B 4.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 13, 0-2 23; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 15, 0-2 26; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 17, 0-2 26.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 5-2, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Netherlands as moderate favorites at 55.5% implied probability versus Sweden's 20.5%, with consistent odds across all 14 samples showing minimal recent movement. Sweden's strong 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia and Netherlands' mixed recent results (including a draw with Japan and loss to Algeria) create some tension with the market view, which warrants slightly reduced confidence from a pure odds-based assessment. The draw probability of 24

Conclusion note

Netherlands are the clear market favorite against Sweden with consensus implied win probability of 55.5% across 14 captured bookmakers, where all major firms price them around 1.70, while Sweden's implied win probability stands at just 20.5%. The market has shown minimal drift in the latest update window, with Netherlands' probability dipping only 0.08 percentage points, indicating stable bookmaker confidence in the Dutch side despite their recent inconsistent form of one win, three draws and two losses in their last six matches.

Recent formDrawNetherlands' recent form is poor with only one win in five and three draws, scoring just 1.2 goals per game, while Sweden have won three of five averaging 2.8 goals per game including a dominant World Cup opening win over Tunisia. The form gap is significant and favors Sweden, but the draw aligns with Netherlands' frequent stalemates and the competitive balance at a neutral venue in Houston, though bookmaker consensus still favors Netherlands which reduces conviction.38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Netherlands vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z. Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 55.5%, draw 24%, side B win 20.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z -> 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.7 / draw 3.95 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.7, draw 4, side B 4.6; marathonbet: side A 1.74, draw 4.15, side B 4.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 13, 0-2 23; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 15, 0-2 26; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 17, 0-2 26.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 5-2, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T15:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Netherlands' recent form is poor with only one win in five and three draws, scoring just 1.2 goals per game, while Sweden have won three of five averaging 2.8 goals per game including a dominant World Cup opening win over Tunisia. The form gap is significant and favors Sweden, but the draw aligns with Netherlands' frequent stalemates and the competitive balance at a neutral venue in Houston, though bookmaker consensus still favors Netherlands which reduces conviction.

Conclusion note

Netherlands have drawn three of their last five matches including a 2-2 draw with Japan in their World Cup opener, while Sweden are in strong attacking form with 14 goals across their last five and a 5-1 demolition of Tunisia, making a draw a plausible outcome despite bookmakers pricing Netherlands at 55.5% implied win probability.

Synthesis

The Netherlands are favored by bookmakers with a 55.5% implied win probability, but Sweden's strong recent form, including a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia, and Netherlands' pattern of draws in their last five matches create uncertainty. While market consensus points to a Dutch victory, the attacking threat from Sweden and Netherlands' inconsistency make this a competitive match.

Reasoning summary: Market odds indicate Netherlands as clear favorites, but recent form shows Sweden's strong attacking performance and Netherlands' frequent draws, leading to a prediction where Netherlands are most likely to win, though with reduced confidence due to the form evidence.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Nethrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50