GLM-5.1 · Netherlands vs Sweden

NetherlandsvsSweden
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win55%Hit
BetBet portfolio$860Bet portfolio
Post-match result5-1
Net P&L+$178
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Home win

All three perspectives converge on Netherlands as the favorite, anchored by a stable 55.6% implied win probability across fourteen bookmaker samples with odds consistently around 1.70 and negligible market movement. Sweden's 3W-1D-1L recent record looks superficially strong, including a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia, but those victories came against substantially weaker opponents such as Azerbaijan, Estonia and Luxembourg, while Netherlands' three draws in their 1W-3D-1L run were against higher-caliber sides like Germany and Japan. Sweden's higher raw scoring volume of 14 goals in five games is partly inflated by that weaker opposition and accompanied by 9 goals conceded, suggesting their attacking output may not reliably translate against a stronger Netherlands defense. Netherlands' own neutral goal difference of 6 scored and 6 conceded over five matches points to a tightly contested game, which keeps the draw probability meaningful at around 25%. The decisive tradeoff is opposition quality: Sweden's form signal is weakened by the caliber of their opponents, while Netherlands' seemingly indifferent results carry more weight because they were achieved against tougher competition. The most likely scoreline is a narrow Netherlands 1-0 win, followed by a 1-1 draw.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8603 bets
Net P&L+$178
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $350
    odds 1.73Settled: win+$255.5

    Betting rationale：Portfolio-balance posture adding Netherlands win alongside existing draw position ($260 at 3.98). Netherlands' draw-heavy recent record (1W-3D-1L) came against stronger opposition than Sweden's inflated 3W-1D-1L, making opposition quality the decisive edge. Thunderstorms in Houston add chaos potential, reinforcing draw coverage, but the 55% NL win probability is the single most likely outcome — without NL coverage I'd lose on 55% of scenarios. $350 on NL at 1.73 nearly flattens net result on an

    Payout: $605.5 · Balance after: $7,666.4

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $260
    odds 3.98Settled: loss-$260

    Betting rationale：Draw protection play with positive model edge. Netherlands have a pronounced draw pattern — drew their WC opener 2-2 vs Japan and 4 draws in recent 10 — while Sweden arrive with momentum from a 5-1 win over weaker Tunisia. The execution draw price at 3.980 (Pinnacle) offers +0.029 model edge, the only outcome with positive edge vs execution. Netherlands' quality keeps Sweden from winning outright, but their inability to convert advantages into victories makes a draw the most value-aligned outcom

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,060.9

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 1.73Settled: win+$182.5

    Betting rationale：Adjustment slice: portfolio rebalance. Existing positions (side_a_win $350 at 1.730, draw $260 at 3.980) leave the Netherlands-win scenario nearly flat—only ~$5 profit on the most probable outcome (54%). Adding $250 to side_a_win at execution 1.730 makes both the favorite and draw scenarios profitable: Netherlands win yields ~+178 net, draw yields ~+175 net, while Sweden win remains a -860 risk at 22% probability. Match script supports this: Netherlands drew 2-2 vs Japan and face group-stage urg

    Payout: $432.5 · Balance after: $8,098.9

Post-match result5-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 55%Draw 25%Away win 20%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - From the market-odds perspective, 14 bookmaker samples uniformly price Netherlands as a clear favorite at ~55.6% implied probability versus Sweden at ~20.5%, with negligible movement of only +0.35pp toward Netherlands between the two latest update points, signaling a stable and decisive consensus rather than a balanced contest. The lack of head-to-head data, lineups, and weather forecasts limits contextual refinement, but the consistent 1.70-side A pricing across multiple bookmakers leaves no am
  • - The perspective question asks whether Sweden's better recent results carry a stronger predictive signal than Netherlands' weaker results. Sweden's 3W-1D-1L including a 5-1 WC win looks impressive, but most victories came against substantially weaker opponents; Netherlands' five recent matches produced only one win and three draws, yet those draws included competitive fixtures against Germany and a WC draw against Japan, which are stronger opponents than Tunisia. The opposition-quality differenti
  • - The odds consensus strongly favors Netherlands at roughly 56%, but the scoring efficiency perspective reveals Netherlands' recent five-game net goal difference of zero, with three draws, suggesting a tight contest. Sweden's higher raw scoring volume of 14 goals in five games is partly inflated by weaker opposition and comes alongside conceding 9 goals, including a 1-3 loss to Norway, indicating their attacking output may not reliably translate against a stronger Netherlands side. The lack of hea

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 42.0%; draw 30.0%; Japan win 28.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 0-0 Japan
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.44. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 44.0%; draw 29.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.30Log loss 0.60

Meta thinking

  • market oddsAnalyze the 14 captured odds observations to assess implied probability distributions and determine whether the market perceives a clear favorite or expects a balanced contest between Netherlands and Sweden.
  • recent competitive formCompare Netherlands' 1W-3D-1L recent run including their 2-2 World Cup draw versus Sweden's 3W-1D-1L form highlighted by a 5-1 WC win over Tunisia, weighing which trend pattern carries stronger predictive signal.
  • scoring efficiencyInvestigate both teams' goal production and concession rates across recent matches: Netherlands scored 6 and conceded 6 in 5 games while Sweden scored 14 and conceded 9, examining whether high-volume scoring correlates with match outcomes in this fixture.

Tokens: 2941

Perspectives

market oddsHome winFrom the market-odds perspective, 14 bookmaker samples uniformly price Netherlands as a clear favorite at ~55.6% implied probability versus Sweden at ~20.5%, with negligible movement of only +0.35pp toward Netherlands between the two latest update points, signaling a stable and decisive consensus rather than a balanced contest. The lack of head-to-head data, lineups, and weather forecasts limits contextual refinement, but the consistent 1.70-side A pricing across multiple bookmakers leaves no am55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Fixture: Netherlands vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z. Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T17:04:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 55.6%, draw 24%, side B win 20.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T06:00:27Z -> 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.35pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.18pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.71 / draw 3.9 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.95 / side B 4.33; william_hill side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.7, draw 3.95, side B 4.33; william_hill: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.7, draw 4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.74, draw 4.15, side B 4.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.15.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 5-2, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. From the market-odds perspective, 14 bookmaker samples uniformly price Netherlands as a clear favorite at ~55.6% implied probability versus Sweden at ~20.5%, with negligible movement of only +0.35pp toward Netherlands between the two latest update points, signaling a stable and decisive consensus rather than a balanced contest. The lack of head-to-head data, lineups, and weather forecasts limits contextual refinement, but the consistent 1.70-side A pricing across multiple bookmakers leaves no am

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds observations show a clear market favorite: Netherlands carries approximately 55.6% implied win probability, roughly 35 percentage points above Sweden's 20.5%, with the draw at 24%, and odds lines remain stable around 1.70 for Netherlands across major bookmakers including 10bet, William Hill, and Bet365. Sweden's recent form includes a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia, but the market still prices Netherlands substantially higher, indicating perceived quality advantage despite Netherlands' mixed recent results.

recent competitive formHome winThe perspective question asks whether Sweden's better recent results carry a stronger predictive signal than Netherlands' weaker results. Sweden's 3W-1D-1L including a 5-1 WC win looks impressive, but most victories came against substantially weaker opponents; Netherlands' five recent matches produced only one win and three draws, yet those draws included competitive fixtures against Germany and a WC draw against Japan, which are stronger opponents than Tunisia. The opposition-quality differenti56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Fixture: Netherlands vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z. Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T17:04:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 55.6%, draw 24%, side B win 20.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T06:00:27Z -> 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.35pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.18pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.71 / draw 3.9 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.95 / side B 4.33; william_hill side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.7, draw 3.95, side B 4.33; william_hill: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.7, draw 4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.74, draw 4.15, side B 4.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.15.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 5-2, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The perspective question asks whether Sweden's better recent results carry a stronger predictive signal than Netherlands' weaker results. Sweden's 3W-1D-1L including a 5-1 WC win looks impressive, but most victories came against substantially weaker opponents; Netherlands' five recent matches produced only one win and three draws, yet those draws included competitive fixtures against Germany and a WC draw against Japan, which are stronger opponents than Tunisia. The opposition-quality differenti

Conclusion note

Sweden's recent 3W-1D-1L form with a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia appears stronger than Netherlands' 1W-3D-1L run including a 2-2 WC draw with Japan, but Netherlands' draws came against higher-quality opposition like Germany and Japan while Sweden's wins largely featured lower-tier opponents such as Azerbaijan, Estonia and Luxembourg, so the opposition-quality gap weakens Sweden's form signal. The odds consensus implies a 55.6% Netherlands win probability and the slight market movement has edged further toward Netherlands, supporting a Netherlands victory despite their indifferent recent results.

scoring efficiencyHome winThe odds consensus strongly favors Netherlands at roughly 56%, but the scoring efficiency perspective reveals Netherlands' recent five-game net goal difference of zero, with three draws, suggesting a tight contest. Sweden's higher raw scoring volume of 14 goals in five games is partly inflated by weaker opposition and comes alongside conceding 9 goals, including a 1-3 loss to Norway, indicating their attacking output may not reliably translate against a stronger Netherlands side. The lack of hea56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    scoring efficiency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Fixture: Netherlands vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z. Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T17:04:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Netherlands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Netherlands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 55.6%, draw 24%, side B win 20.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T06:00:27Z -> 2026-06-20T08:07:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.35pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.18pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.71 / draw 3.9 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.95 / side B 4.33; william_hill side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 3.8 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.7 / draw 4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.7, draw 3.95, side B 4.33; william_hill: side A 1.7, draw 3.8, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.7, draw 4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.74, draw 4.15, side B 4.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.09 / under 6.15.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Netherlands:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 5-2, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Estonia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus strongly favors Netherlands at roughly 56%, but the scoring efficiency perspective reveals Netherlands' recent five-game net goal difference of zero, with three draws, suggesting a tight contest. Sweden's higher raw scoring volume of 14 goals in five games is partly inflated by weaker opposition and comes alongside conceding 9 goals, including a 1-3 loss to Norway, indicating their attacking output may not reliably translate against a stronger Netherlands side. The lack of hea

Conclusion note

Netherlands is favored at 55.6% implied probability by bookmakers, though their recent five matches show a perfectly balanced scoring record of 6 goals scored and 6 conceded with three draws, while Sweden's last five matches produced 14 goals scored and 9 conceded but against mixed-quality opposition including a 5-1 win over Tunisia and a 4-3 win over Algeria. No head-to-head records, lineups, or weather data are available.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on Netherlands as the favorite, anchored by a stable 55.6% implied win probability across fourteen bookmaker samples with odds consistently around 1.70 and negligible market movement. Sweden's 3W-1D-1L recent record looks superficially strong, including a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia, but those victories came against substantially weaker opponents such as Azerbaijan, Estonia and Luxembourg, while Netherlands' three draws in their 1W-3D-1L run were against higher-caliber sides like Germany and Japan. Sweden's higher raw scoring volume of 14 goals in five games is partly inflated by that weaker opposition and accompanied by 9 goals conceded, suggesting their attacking output may not reliably translate against a stronger Netherlands defense. Netherlands' own neutral goal difference of 6 scored and 6 conceded over five matches points to a tightly contested game, which keeps the draw probability meaningful at around 25%. The decisive tradeoff is opposition quality: Sweden's form signal is weakened by the caliber of their opponents, while Netherlands' seemingly indifferent results carry more weight because they were achieved against tougher competition. The most likely scoreline is a narrow Netherlands 1-0 win, followed by a 1-1 draw.

Reasoning summary: The market-odds, recent-form and scoring-efficiency perspectives all select Netherlands at roughly 56% confidence, with stable bookmaker pricing and consistent direction across fourteen samples. Sweden's better recent win rate is discounted because their victories were against lower-tier opposition, whereas Netherlands' draws came against Germany and Japan, stronger sides than Tunisia. Sweden's higher goal volume is likewise inflated by weaker opponents and paired with a leaky defensive record o

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 42.0%; draw 30.0%; Japan win 28.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 0-0 Japanrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.44. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 44.0%; draw 29.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50