MiMo V2.5 Pro · Tunisia vs Japan

TunisiavsJapan
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionAway win61%Hit
BetAway win$450Aligned
Post-match result0-4
Net P&L+$254.6
PredictionConfidence: 61%
Away win

Japan are favored to defeat Tunisia due to their exceptional recent form, which includes an unbeaten streak with victories over England and a draw against the Netherlands, while only conceding two goals in five matches. In contrast, Tunisia have struggled, losing three of their last five games by heavy margins, including two 5-0 defeats. The bookmaker consensus assigns Japan a 61% implied win probability, consistent with this form gap, though the neutral venue and tournament variability add slight uncertainty.

Bet
Away win$4502 bets
Net P&L+$254.6
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $230
    odds 1.60Settled: win+$138

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction, adding to existing Japan position. Match script: Tunisia's recent away form is catastrophic (1-11 combined across three losses to Sweden, Belgium, Austria), while Japan enters on an eight-match unbeaten run including wins over England and Scotland and a credible 2-2 draw with Netherlands. Japan's organized defense should comfortably contain Tunisia's fragile attack in neutral Monterrey conditions. Model gives Japan 65% win probability with a small +0.025 ed

    Payout: $368 · Balance after: $6,356.3

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $220
    odds 1.53Settled: win+$116.6

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction. Japan are in exceptional form—unbeaten in five, conceding only twice, with quality results against England and Netherlands. Tunisia's recent record is catastrophic (two 5-0 defeats). The 61% predicted win probability aligns with this massive form gap. Execution price at 1.530 is near fair value; while edge is slightly negative at execution, the match script is compelling enough for a moderate stake backing Japan to win comfortably against a demoralized Tuni

    Payout: $336.6 · Balance after: $5,988.3

Post-match result0-4
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 24%Away win 61%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-1
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - Japan's recent form is dramatically superior: four wins and one draw in their last five, with quality results against England and the Netherlands and a strong defensive record of only 2 goals conceded. Tunisia have been in crisis, losing three of five including two five-goal defeats, with a -9 goal difference. The odds consensus (61% Japan, 14.9% Tunisia) aligns with this form gap. While the neutral venue in Monterrey removes any true home advantage for Tunisia, the form differential strongly fa
  • - Market odds signals overwhelmingly favor Japan with a consistent 61% implied win probability across 14 bookmaker samples and only marginal drift in the final update window. The stable consensus combined with Japan's superior recent form—quality wins over England and a World Cup draw with Netherlands contrasted against Tunisia's poor run including two five-goal defeats—makes a Japan victory the most defensible outcome, though World Cup uncertainty and the away-team factor moderate confidence some

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Neth
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.23Log loss 0.49

Meta thinking

  • Recent form trendsCompare the win-loss records, goal differences, and opponents faced in the last five matches for both teams to evaluate current performance levels.
  • Market odds signalsAnalyze the 14 captured odds snapshots to detect shifts in implied probabilities or consensus expectations for this group stage match.

Tokens: 3117

Perspectives

Recent form trendsAway winJapan's recent form is dramatically superior: four wins and one draw in their last five, with quality results against England and the Netherlands and a strong defensive record of only 2 goals conceded. Tunisia have been in crisis, losing three of five including two five-goal defeats, with a -9 goal difference. The odds consensus (61% Japan, 14.9% Tunisia) aligns with this form gap. While the neutral venue in Monterrey removes any true home advantage for Tunisia, the form differential strongly fa62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Japan. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 14.9%, draw 24.1%, side B win 61%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T00:15:21Z -> 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.25pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win -0.35pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.8 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.51 → side A 6.2 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.56; william_hill side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53 → side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53; bet365 side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53 → side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.2, draw 3.75, side B 1.56; william_hill: side A 6, draw 3.8, side B 1.53; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4, side B 1.53; marathonbet: side A 6.7, draw 4.1, side B 1.54. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8.5; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.02 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2023-10-17, TUN vs Japan, score 0-2, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Kobe', 'name': 'NOEVIR Stadium Kobe'}. (full detail via reference hist-d8b6ad3d17)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Japan:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T10:25:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T10:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Japan's recent form is dramatically superior: four wins and one draw in their last five, with quality results against England and the Netherlands and a strong defensive record of only 2 goals conceded. Tunisia have been in crisis, losing three of five including two five-goal defeats, with a -9 goal difference. The odds consensus (61% Japan, 14.9% Tunisia) aligns with this form gap. While the neutral venue in Monterrey removes any true home advantage for Tunisia, the form differential strongly fa

Conclusion note

Tunisia have lost three of their last five matches by heavy scorelines (1-5 vs Sweden, 0-5 vs Belgium, 0-1 vs Austria), conceding 11 goals in that span, while Japan are unbeaten in their last five with four wins including a 1-0 away victory over England and a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, conceding only 2 goals across those fixtures. Bookmaker consensus assigns Japan an implied 61% win probability versus just 14.9% for Tunisia, consistent with the stark form disparity and Japan's prior 2-0 head-to-head win in 2023.

Market odds signalsAway winMarket odds signals overwhelmingly favor Japan with a consistent 61% implied win probability across 14 bookmaker samples and only marginal drift in the final update window. The stable consensus combined with Japan's superior recent form—quality wins over England and a World Cup draw with Netherlands contrasted against Tunisia's poor run including two five-goal defeats—makes a Japan victory the most defensible outcome, though World Cup uncertainty and the away-team factor moderate confidence some75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds signals

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Fixture: TUN vs Japan. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z. Venue: Monterrey Stadium, Monterrey, altitude 540 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Tunisia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Tunisia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 14.9%, draw 24.1%, side B win 61%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T00:15:21Z -> 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.25pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win -0.35pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.8 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.51 → side A 6.2 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.56; william_hill side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53 → side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53; bet365 side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53 → side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.2, draw 3.75, side B 1.56; william_hill: side A 6, draw 3.8, side B 1.53; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4, side B 1.53; marathonbet: side A 6.7, draw 4.1, side B 1.54. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8.5; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.02 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2023-10-17, TUN vs Japan, score 0-2, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Kobe', 'name': 'NOEVIR Stadium Kobe'}. (full detail via reference hist-d8b6ad3d17)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Tunisia:

    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Sweden, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-27T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-23T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Uganda, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Qatar, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-04T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Japan:

    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T10:25:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T10:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T04:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 14.9%, draw 24.1%, side B win 61%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T00:15:21Z -> 2026-06-20T02:11:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.25pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win -0.35pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.8 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.51 → side A 6.2 / draw 3.75 / side B 1.56; william_hill side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53 → side A 6 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.53; bet365 side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53 → side A 6.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.53. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.2, draw 3.75, side B 1.56; william_hill: side A 6, draw 3.8, side B 1.53; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4, side B 1.53; marathonbet: side A 6.7, draw 4.1, side B 1.54. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8.5; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.02 / under 8.4.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Market odds signals overwhelmingly favor Japan with a consistent 61% implied win probability across 14 bookmaker samples and only marginal drift in the final update window. The stable consensus combined with Japan's superior recent form—quality wins over England and a World Cup draw with Netherlands contrasted against Tunisia's poor run including two five-goal defeats—makes a Japan victory the most defensible outcome, though World Cup uncertainty and the away-team factor moderate confidence some

Conclusion note

The 14-bookmaker market consensus assigns Japan a commanding 61% implied probability of victory versus Tunisia's 14.9%, with major operators including bet365, William Hill, 10bet and Marathonbet all pricing Japan between 1.51 and 1.56, while odds movement over the observed window is negligible (Japan -0.35pp) indicating stable market conviction in a Japan win. Japan's recent form includes a World Cup draw against Netherlands and victories over England, Scotland and Iceland, while Tunisia have suffered heavy defeats of 1-5 to Sweden and 0-5 to Belgium in their most recent competitive outings.

Synthesis

Japan are favored to defeat Tunisia due to their exceptional recent form, which includes an unbeaten streak with victories over England and a draw against the Netherlands, while only conceding two goals in five matches. In contrast, Tunisia have struggled, losing three of their last five games by heavy margins, including two 5-0 defeats. The bookmaker consensus assigns Japan a 61% implied win probability, consistent with this form gap, though the neutral venue and tournament variability add slight uncertainty.

Reasoning summary: Both analysis perspectives support a Japan victory, emphasizing Japan's strong form with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, a solid defensive record, and quality results against top teams. Tunisia's poor recent performance, marked by heavy losses, aligns with the market odds that give Japan a 61% win probability, making a Japan win the most defensible outcome.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Nethrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50