MiMo V2.5 Pro · Japan vs Sweden

JapanvsSweden
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win50%Miss
BetHome win$340Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$340
PredictionConfidence: 50%
Home win

Japan are the clear favorites against Sweden according to bookmaker consensus, which implies a 50.4% win probability, supported by Japan's strong World Cup form, including a resilient 2-2 draw with the Netherlands compared to Sweden's heavy 1-5 loss to the same opponent. Both teams have shown attacking strength against Tunisia, but Japan's better record against a common strong side gives them the edge, though the possibility of a draw remains due to Sweden's offensive capabilities.

Bet
Home win$3402 bets
Net P&L-$340
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $190
    odds 2.00Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture adding to Japan position. The Netherlands head-to-head comparison is decisive: Japan drew 2-2 away while Sweden lost 1-5 away against the same strong opponent. Japan's disciplined recent form (4-0 vs Tunisia, clean sheets vs England/Scotland) contrasts with Sweden's volatility. Positive model edge of +0.060 at execution price of 2.000 supports adding $190 to existing $150 exposure. Moderate conviction based on 56% predicted win probability and compelling form gap.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,471

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $150
    odds 1.88Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction backed by common-opponent form differential. Match script: Japan drew Netherlands 2-2 while Sweden were demolished 1-5 by the same opponent—a stark quality indicator. Japan's World Cup form (4-0 vs Tunisia, resilient draw with Netherlands, strong pre-tournament results over England) suggests they can handle Sweden's attacking threat while being the more composed side. The 1.88 execution price implies ~53% win probability vs model's 50.4%, giving a modest -2.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,471

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 50%Draw 27%Away win 23%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1Hit
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds market provides a clear and stable signal: Japan is favored at roughly 2-to-1 over the combined draw and Sweden outcomes. The consensus probability for a Japan win has remained firm with only +0.03 percentage point movement across 14 bookmakers, suggesting no late money shifting away from Japan. Sweden's implied probability of 22.6% reflects their inconsistency, including a heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands, while Japan's pricing is supported by their superior recent record. However, with o
  • - The decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison at this World Cup: Japan drew 2-2 away to Netherlands while Sweden lost 1-5 away to the same opponent, indicating Japan are considerably more competitive at the tournament level. Both teams dominated Tunisia convincingly, but Japan's result against the stronger common opponent is far more impressive. Combined with bookmaker odds favoring Japan at roughly 50% implied probability, the most defensible outcome is a Japan win, though the absence

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Neth
  • - Recall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.84Log loss 1.31

Meta thinking

  • Market odds assessmentAnalyze the captured odds data to assess market sentiment and implied probabilities for Japan versus Sweden, without presetting a conclusion.
  • Recent World Cup form comparisonCompare Japan and Sweden's recent match results in the World Cup 2026, including their performances against common opponents Netherlands and Tunisia, to identify trends in scoring and consistency.

Tokens: 3081

Perspectives

Market odds assessmentHome winThe odds market provides a clear and stable signal: Japan is favored at roughly 2-to-1 over the combined draw and Sweden outcomes. The consensus probability for a Japan win has remained firm with only +0.03 percentage point movement across 14 bookmakers, suggesting no late money shifting away from Japan. Sweden's implied probability of 22.6% reflects their inconsistency, including a heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands, while Japan's pricing is supported by their superior recent record. However, with o62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Fixture: Japan vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Japan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 50.4%, draw 27%, side B win 22.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.03pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.45, side B 3.95; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.6, side B 3.8; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; marathonbet: side A 1.91, draw 3.48, side B 4.33. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Japan:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T10:25:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T10:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 50.4%, draw 27%, side B win 22.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.03pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.45, side B 3.95; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.6, side B 3.8; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; marathonbet: side A 1.91, draw 3.48, side B 4.33. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The odds market provides a clear and stable signal: Japan is favored at roughly 2-to-1 over the combined draw and Sweden outcomes. The consensus probability for a Japan win has remained firm with only +0.03 percentage point movement across 14 bookmakers, suggesting no late money shifting away from Japan. Sweden's implied probability of 22.6% reflects their inconsistency, including a heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands, while Japan's pricing is supported by their superior recent record. However, with o

Conclusion note

Japan are clear market favorites against Sweden, with bookmaker consensus implying a 50.4% chance of a Japan victory compared to 22.6% for Sweden and 27% for a draw, based on 14 bookmaker samples across 9 odds update points as of June 24. Major bookmakers including bet365, William Hill, Marathonbet, and 10bet all price Japan between 1.85 and 1.91, while Sweden ranges from 3.80 to 4.33, indicating consistent market backing for Japan that aligns with their strong World Cup form of a 4-0 win over Tunisia and a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands.

Recent World Cup form comparisonHome winThe decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison at this World Cup: Japan drew 2-2 away to Netherlands while Sweden lost 1-5 away to the same opponent, indicating Japan are considerably more competitive at the tournament level. Both teams dominated Tunisia convincingly, but Japan's result against the stronger common opponent is far more impressive. Combined with bookmaker odds favoring Japan at roughly 50% implied probability, the most defensible outcome is a Japan win, though the absence56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent World Cup form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Fixture: Japan vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Japan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Japan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 50.4%, draw 27%, side B win 22.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z -> 2026-06-24T20:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.03pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95 → side A 1.9 / draw 3.45 / side B 3.95; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.6 / side B 3.8; bet365 side A 1.85 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.9, draw 3.45, side B 3.95; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.6, side B 3.8; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; marathonbet: side A 1.91, draw 3.48, side B 4.33. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Japan:

    • 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-05-31T10:25:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T10:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-09T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T23:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovakia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison at this World Cup: Japan drew 2-2 away to Netherlands while Sweden lost 1-5 away to the same opponent, indicating Japan are considerably more competitive at the tournament level. Both teams dominated Tunisia convincingly, but Japan's result against the stronger common opponent is far more impressive. Combined with bookmaker odds favoring Japan at roughly 50% implied probability, the most defensible outcome is a Japan win, though the absence

Conclusion note

Japan enter this World Cup group-stage match with a stronger 2026 tournament profile, drawing 2-2 with Netherlands and thrashing Tunisia 4-0, while Sweden were demolished 1-5 by the same Netherlands side despite beating Tunisia 5-1 at home; bookmaker consensus gives Japan a 50.4% implied win probability at odds of around 1.85-1.91, and the significant gap in performance against Netherlands—Japan's resilience versus Sweden's collapse—supports a Japan victory.

Synthesis

Japan are the clear favorites against Sweden according to bookmaker consensus, which implies a 50.4% win probability, supported by Japan's strong World Cup form, including a resilient 2-2 draw with the Netherlands compared to Sweden's heavy 1-5 loss to the same opponent. Both teams have shown attacking strength against Tunisia, but Japan's better record against a common strong side gives them the edge, though the possibility of a draw remains due to Sweden's offensive capabilities.

Reasoning summary: Both market odds and recent World Cup performance point to a Japan victory, with Japan's superior result against the Netherlands being the key factor. The confidence is set at 50.4% based on market implied probabilities, acknowledging some uncertainty from Sweden's high-scoring potential.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Late editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Japan win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 35.0%; draw 27.0%; Japan win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 0-1 Japan, Netherlands 1-1 Japan, Nethrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Netherlands vs Japan Actionable editionRecall anchors: ned jpn group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Netherlands win with confidence 0.45. Probability distribution: Netherlands win 45.0%; draw 28.0%; Japan win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Netherlands 1-0 Japan, Netherlands 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50