Qwen3.7 Plus · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Qwen
Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win70%Hit
BetBet portfolio$370Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$370
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

Senegal enter this match as overwhelming favorites with the betting market pricing them at approximately 77 percent implied win probability, a consensus that has held firm despite three consecutive defeats in which they conceded three goals per game. The decisive evidence tradeoff lies between Senegal's alarming recent defensive record and the market's clear judgment that those losses reflect the elite quality of opponents like France, the USA and Norway rather than a systemic collapse. Against the common opponent Norway, Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq suffered a heavier 1-4 home defeat, suggesting Senegal remain marginally more competitive at this level. Iraq have shown resilience with a 1-1 draw away to Spain, but their overall squad depth is insufficient to consistently exploit Senegal's vulnerabilities. The only notable squad concern is goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being listed as questionable, which is manageable given Senegal's depth. A plausible scenario is that Senegal impose early pressure and secure a narrow victory, though their defensive fragility means Iraq are likely to create at least one clear scoring opportunity.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3703 bets
Net P&L-$370
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $190
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Reinforcing my existing draw position. Senegal's defensive fragility is stark — three straight losses conceding three goals each — yet their attacking quality should still produce goals. Iraq showed resilience drawing 1-1 away to Spain and are tough to break down. The market overprices Senegal at ~80% implied given their form, while the draw at 7.000 offers a +3.7% model edge. A 1-1 or 2-2 script where Iraq exploit Senegal's shaky backline but lack the cutting edge to win outright is footballing

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Senegal are heavy favorites at 1.23 but are in dreadful form with three consecutive defeats, while the market prices them at ~81% implied probability—above the model's 75%. Iraq showed genuine defensive resilience in a 1-1 draw against Spain and kept the scoreline respectable versus Norway. The executable draw at 6.81 carries a small positive model edge (+2.3%) and the football script supports it: a struggling favorite facing a compact, organized underdog that has already proven it can frustrate

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 13.00Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset shot on Iraq. Senegal have conceded exactly 3 goals in each of their last three matches — their defense is genuinely broken. Iraq held Spain to a 1-1 draw and showed they can organize against elite opposition. The model gives Iraq a 14% win chance but Pinnacle's 13.00 implies only 7.7%, a +6.3% positive edge — the best executable value on the board. I already carry $290 on the draw, so this side_b_win bet diversifies my non-favorite coverage: if Senegal's defensive collapse cont

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 18%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-1
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The market strongly favors Senegal despite their poor recent defensive run, suggesting the three heavy losses are attributed to the quality of opposition (Norway, France, USA) rather than a systemic collapse. Against the common opponent Norway, Senegal conceded three away while Iraq conceded four at home, indicating Senegal's defense was marginally more competitive. Iraq's overall record includes a draw with Spain and wins over weaker sides, but they lack the depth to exploit Senegal's vulnerabi
  • - The market consensus heavily favors Senegal with an implied win probability of 77.2%, supported by odds ranging from 1.22 to 1.25 across major bookmakers. Although this pricing contradicts Senegal's recent form of three straight losses, the market appears to be weighting Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway more heavily than Senegal's 2-3 loss to the same opponent. Following the market odds perspective, the overwhelming consensus backing a Senegal victory is the decisive signal, though confidence i
  • - From a squad risk perspective, the single observed injury to Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a manageable concern given their depth, while Iraq arrives with a fully fit roster. Despite Senegal's recent run of defeats and the goalkeeper uncertainty, the overwhelming market consensus and Senegal's underlying squad quality make them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: France win 66.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.80. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 10.0%; Norway win 80.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.14Log loss 0.36

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and defensive trendsInvestigate the recent match records for both teams, focusing on goal concession rates, results against common opponents like Norway, and overall momentum heading into the group stage.
  • Market odds and implied probabilitiesAnalyze the captured pre-match odds records to determine market consensus, implied win probabilities, and whether the pricing aligns with or contradicts the recent form trajectories of both sides.
  • Squad risk and injury statusEvaluate the impact of the single observed injury on the Senegal squad compared to the fully fit Iraq roster, assessing potential lineup risks and depth constraints before official lineups are confirmed.

Tokens: 3736

Perspectives

Recent form and defensive trendsHome winThe market strongly favors Senegal despite their poor recent defensive run, suggesting the three heavy losses are attributed to the quality of opposition (Norway, France, USA) rather than a systemic collapse. Against the common opponent Norway, Senegal conceded three away while Iraq conceded four at home, indicating Senegal's defense was marginally more competitive. Iraq's overall record includes a draw with Spain and wins over weaker sides, but they lack the depth to exploit Senegal's vulnerabi68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and defensive trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market strongly favors Senegal despite their poor recent defensive run, suggesting the three heavy losses are attributed to the quality of opposition (Norway, France, USA) rather than a systemic collapse. Against the common opponent Norway, Senegal conceded three away while Iraq conceded four at home, indicating Senegal's defense was marginally more competitive. Iraq's overall record includes a draw with Spain and wins over weaker sides, but they lack the depth to exploit Senegal's vulnerabi

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy favorites at consensus implied probability of 77.2%, but their recent defensive form is alarming: three consecutive losses to Norway (2-3), France (1-3) and USA (2-3), conceding three goals in each match. Iraq also lost heavily to the common opponent Norway (1-4 at home) but have shown more resilience elsewhere, including a 1-1 draw away to Spain. É. Mendy is listed as questionable for Senegal, while Iraq have no visible injury concerns.

Market odds and implied probabilitiesHome winThe market consensus heavily favors Senegal with an implied win probability of 77.2%, supported by odds ranging from 1.22 to 1.25 across major bookmakers. Although this pricing contradicts Senegal's recent form of three straight losses, the market appears to be weighting Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway more heavily than Senegal's 2-3 loss to the same opponent. Following the market odds perspective, the overwhelming consensus backing a Senegal victory is the decisive signal, though confidence i72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market consensus heavily favors Senegal with an implied win probability of 77.2%, supported by odds ranging from 1.22 to 1.25 across major bookmakers. Although this pricing contradicts Senegal's recent form of three straight losses, the market appears to be weighting Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway more heavily than Senegal's 2-3 loss to the same opponent. Following the market odds perspective, the overwhelming consensus backing a Senegal victory is the decisive signal, though confidence i

Conclusion note

The betting market prices Senegal as overwhelming favorites with a 77.2% implied win probability and odds around 1.22, a consensus that has slightly strengthened ahead of kickoff. This heavy market backing persists despite Senegal's three consecutive defeats, indicating that bookmakers are prioritizing overall squad quality and Iraq's recent heavy losses over Senegal's current form trajectory.

Squad risk and injury statusHome winFrom a squad risk perspective, the single observed injury to Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a manageable concern given their depth, while Iraq arrives with a fully fit roster. Despite Senegal's recent run of defeats and the goalkeeper uncertainty, the overwhelming market consensus and Senegal's underlying squad quality make them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad risk and injury status

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. From a squad risk perspective, the single observed injury to Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a manageable concern given their depth, while Iraq arrives with a fully fit roster. Despite Senegal's recent run of defeats and the goalkeeper uncertainty, the overwhelming market consensus and Senegal's underlying squad quality make them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory.

Conclusion note

Senegal faces a minor squad risk with goalkeeper Édouard Mendy listed as questionable, but their overall depth remains sufficient to field a strong lineup against a fully fit Iraq side. The betting market continues to heavily favor Senegal at around 1.22, indicating that this single injury observation has not significantly undermined their status as clear favorites.

Synthesis

Senegal enter this match as overwhelming favorites with the betting market pricing them at approximately 77 percent implied win probability, a consensus that has held firm despite three consecutive defeats in which they conceded three goals per game. The decisive evidence tradeoff lies between Senegal's alarming recent defensive record and the market's clear judgment that those losses reflect the elite quality of opponents like France, the USA and Norway rather than a systemic collapse. Against the common opponent Norway, Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq suffered a heavier 1-4 home defeat, suggesting Senegal remain marginally more competitive at this level. Iraq have shown resilience with a 1-1 draw away to Spain, but their overall squad depth is insufficient to consistently exploit Senegal's vulnerabilities. The only notable squad concern is goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being listed as questionable, which is manageable given Senegal's depth. A plausible scenario is that Senegal impose early pressure and secure a narrow victory, though their defensive fragility means Iraq are likely to create at least one clear scoring opportunity.

Reasoning summary: All three analytical perspectives converge on a Senegal victory, with confidence estimates ranging from 0.68 to 0.72. The market odds perspective highlights the overwhelming 77.2 percent implied probability backing Senegal at odds around 1.22, indicating bookmakers prioritize overall squad quality over recent form. The form and defensive trends perspective acknowledges Senegal's three consecutive losses conceding three goals each, but notes that against common opponent Norway, Senegal performed

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: France win 66.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.80. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 10.0%; Norway win 80.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50