Qwen3.7 Plus · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Qwen
Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win75%Hit
BetBet portfolio$370Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$370
PredictionConfidence: 75%
Home win

Senegal enters this match as the overwhelming market favorite despite a recent run of three consecutive defeats, with bookmakers pricing an implied win probability of over 77 percent. While Iraq has shown resilience, notably drawing against Spain and keeping the scoreline respectable in a 1-4 defeat to Norway, the underlying squad quality gap remains significant. Senegal's defensive vulnerabilities and the questionable status of goalkeeper Edouard Mendy introduce some risk, but their overall depth and the market's extreme consensus make a 90-minute victory for Senegal the most defensible outcome.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3703 bets
Net P&L-$370
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $190
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Reinforcing my existing draw position. Senegal's defensive fragility is stark — three straight losses conceding three goals each — yet their attacking quality should still produce goals. Iraq showed resilience drawing 1-1 away to Spain and are tough to break down. The market overprices Senegal at ~80% implied given their form, while the draw at 7.000 offers a +3.7% model edge. A 1-1 or 2-2 script where Iraq exploit Senegal's shaky backline but lack the cutting edge to win outright is footballing

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Senegal are heavy favorites at 1.23 but are in dreadful form with three consecutive defeats, while the market prices them at ~81% implied probability—above the model's 75%. Iraq showed genuine defensive resilience in a 1-1 draw against Spain and kept the scoreline respectable versus Norway. The executable draw at 6.81 carries a small positive model edge (+2.3%) and the football script supports it: a struggling favorite facing a compact, organized underdog that has already proven it can frustrate

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 13.00Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset shot on Iraq. Senegal have conceded exactly 3 goals in each of their last three matches — their defense is genuinely broken. Iraq held Spain to a 1-1 draw and showed they can organize against elite opposition. The model gives Iraq a 14% win chance but Pinnacle's 13.00 implies only 7.7%, a +6.3% positive edge — the best executable value on the board. I already carry $290 on the draw, so this side_b_win bet diversifies my non-favorite coverage: if Senegal's defensive collapse cont

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,164.7

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 75%Draw 17%Away win 8%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The primary evidence is the extreme market consensus across multiple bookmakers, which uniformly prices Senegal as heavy favorites and Iraq as massive underdogs at odds above 11.0. Although Senegal's recent form includes three straight losses and defensive vulnerabilities, the market's minimal adjustment toward the draw does not disrupt the overwhelming expectation of a Senegal win, making a home victory the most defensible outcome based on the available odds data.
  • - The perspective highlights Senegal's poor momentum with three straight defeats, contrasting with Iraq's varied run that includes a draw against Spain and wins over Bolivia and Andorra. However, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability, and a direct comparison of their recent matches against Norway shows Senegal's 2-3 loss was more competitive than Iraq's 1-4 defeat. This underlying quality gap makes a Senegal victory the most defensible outcome, though their curren
  • - While Iraq benefits from a fully fit squad and Senegal faces uncertainty with goalkeeper Édouard Mendy listed as questionable, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability. Senegal's squad depth is expected to mitigate the potential absence of their goalkeeper, making them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory despite their recent run of defeats.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: France win 66.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.80. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 10.0%; Norway win 80.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.29

Meta thinking

  • Market odds and implied probabilitiesExamine the 13 captured odds records to assess market-implied probabilities for Senegal, Iraq and a draw, identifying any consensus or divergence across bookmakers.
  • Recent match form and momentumCompare Senegal's three consecutive losses in World Cup and friendlies against Iraq's more varied run including a draw against Spain and wins over Bolivia and Andorra to evaluate current trajectory.
  • Squad availability and injury statusAssess the impact of Senegal's one observed injury against Iraq's clean injury record on expected squad strength and tactical options for this group-stage match.

Tokens: 2885

Perspectives

Market odds and implied probabilitiesHome winThe primary evidence is the extreme market consensus across multiple bookmakers, which uniformly prices Senegal as heavy favorites and Iraq as massive underdogs at odds above 11.0. Although Senegal's recent form includes three straight losses and defensive vulnerabilities, the market's minimal adjustment toward the draw does not disrupt the overwhelming expectation of a Senegal win, making a home victory the most defensible outcome based on the available odds data.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The primary evidence is the extreme market consensus across multiple bookmakers, which uniformly prices Senegal as heavy favorites and Iraq as massive underdogs at odds above 11.0. Although Senegal's recent form includes three straight losses and defensive vulnerabilities, the market's minimal adjustment toward the draw does not disrupt the overwhelming expectation of a Senegal win, making a home victory the most defensible outcome based on the available odds data.

Conclusion note

The betting market demonstrates overwhelming consensus for a Senegal victory, with implied probabilities of 77.5% and odds tightly clustered between 1.22 and 1.24 across major bookmakers. Despite Senegal's recent run of three consecutive defeats, the market continues to price Iraq as heavy underdogs at approximately 7.6% implied probability, reflecting strong confidence in Senegal's superior squad quality.

Recent match form and momentumHome winThe perspective highlights Senegal's poor momentum with three straight defeats, contrasting with Iraq's varied run that includes a draw against Spain and wins over Bolivia and Andorra. However, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability, and a direct comparison of their recent matches against Norway shows Senegal's 2-3 loss was more competitive than Iraq's 1-4 defeat. This underlying quality gap makes a Senegal victory the most defensible outcome, though their curren62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent match form and momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The perspective highlights Senegal's poor momentum with three straight defeats, contrasting with Iraq's varied run that includes a draw against Spain and wins over Bolivia and Andorra. However, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability, and a direct comparison of their recent matches against Norway shows Senegal's 2-3 loss was more competitive than Iraq's 1-4 defeat. This underlying quality gap makes a Senegal victory the most defensible outcome, though their curren

Conclusion note

Despite Senegal's three consecutive losses, the bookmaker consensus heavily favors them with a 77.5% implied win probability, reflecting a significant quality gap over Iraq. While Iraq's recent run includes a resilient draw against Spain, their heavier 1-4 defeat to Norway compared to Senegal's narrower 2-3 loss suggests Senegal remains the most likely winner, albeit with momentum concerns.

Squad availability and injury statusHome winWhile Iraq benefits from a fully fit squad and Senegal faces uncertainty with goalkeeper Édouard Mendy listed as questionable, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability. Senegal's squad depth is expected to mitigate the potential absence of their goalkeeper, making them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory despite their recent run of defeats.74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability and injury status

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. While Iraq benefits from a fully fit squad and Senegal faces uncertainty with goalkeeper Édouard Mendy listed as questionable, the market consensus heavily backs Senegal at 77.5% implied probability. Senegal's squad depth is expected to mitigate the potential absence of their goalkeeper, making them the most defensible choice for a 90-minute victory despite their recent run of defeats.

Conclusion note

Senegal enters as heavy favorites with bookmakers implying a 77.5% win probability, despite a questionable status for goalkeeper Édouard Mendy. Iraq arrives with a fully clean injury record, but the overall squad depth and market pricing still strongly favor Senegal to secure a victory in Toronto.

Synthesis

Senegal enters this match as the overwhelming market favorite despite a recent run of three consecutive defeats, with bookmakers pricing an implied win probability of over 77 percent. While Iraq has shown resilience, notably drawing against Spain and keeping the scoreline respectable in a 1-4 defeat to Norway, the underlying squad quality gap remains significant. Senegal's defensive vulnerabilities and the questionable status of goalkeeper Edouard Mendy introduce some risk, but their overall depth and the market's extreme consensus make a 90-minute victory for Senegal the most defensible outcome.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives align on a Senegal victory, driven primarily by extreme market consensus and a clear squad quality advantage over Iraq. Although Senegal's recent form is poor and Iraq has demonstrated competitive resilience against strong opposition, the betting market's minimal adjustment to the draw and Senegal's narrower defeat to Norway compared to Iraq's heavier loss support the selection of a home win.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: France win 66.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.80. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 10.0%; Norway win 80.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50