Qwen3.7 Max · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win75%Hit
BetAway win$150Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$150
PredictionConfidence: 75%
Home win

Senegal enters this match as the heavy favorite, supported by overwhelming bookmaker consensus that prices them at roughly 77 percent implied win probability. Despite suffering three consecutive defeats, those losses came on the road against elite or highly physical opponents like France, Norway, and the USA. In contrast, Senegal's home form remains exceptionally strong, with four wins and a draw in their last five home fixtures, featuring dominant shutout victories. Iraq possesses a fully fit squad and showed resilience in a draw against Spain, but their heavy defeat to Norway and inconsistent away record suggest they will struggle to bridge the significant quality gap. The minor concern over Senegal's goalkeeper availability is unlikely to disrupt their overall tactical superiority, making a comfortable home victory the most probable outcome.

Bet
Away win$1503 bets
Net P&L-$150
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 12.26Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Football posture: chaos/upset satellite shot. Match script: Senegal arrives desperate after three straight losses (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA) with a leaky defense conceding 9 goals in those 3 games. Iraq showed genuine defensive resilience by drawing Spain 1-1 and has full squad availability while Senegal faces Mendy uncertainty. At 12.260 execution odds, the payout asymmetry is enormous — a $50 stake (0.5% of bankroll) risks little but captures the small positive model edge (+0.0

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 12.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Contrarian satellite add-on. The model prices Iraq at 10% versus the market's 8.3% implied, giving a thin but positive +1.7% edge at 12.00 execution odds — the best value across all three outcomes. Senegal at 1.25 is overpriced (model 75% vs market 80%) and the draw edge is negligible (+0.7%). Football script: Senegal has leaked 8 goals in their last 3 defeats, suggesting defensive fragility, while Iraq demonstrated resilience by drawing 1-1 with Spain. I already hold a $50 lottery ticket on Ira

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 13.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Contrarian value add to existing upset position. Senegal on a three-game losing streak with serious defensive vulnerabilities (conceded 9 goals in last 3 matches). Iraq showed genuine quality drawing 1-1 with Spain. Market prices Senegal at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%), but model gives them only 72% - negative edge on the favorite. Iraq at 13.00 offers positive edge of +4.3% (model 12% vs market 7.7%). I already hold $100 on Iraq at 12.00-12.26; adding at 13.00 improves average odds and increases expos

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 75%Draw 15%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Senegal's excellent home form (4W, 1D in last five home games) against Iraq's inconsistent away results (2W, 1D, 2L), with the schedule-listed home designation in Toronto aligning with Senegal's stronger historical performance at home. Senegal's three consecutive losses were all away matches against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA), while their home performances show defensive solidity and attacking output. Iraq's 1-4 home loss to Norway in the Wor
  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Senegal's poor recent run (three straight defeats) and the overwhelming bookmaker consensus still pricing them as heavy favorites at 77.2% implied win probability, which has even firmed slightly (+0.57pp) in the latest update. The market apparently attributes Senegal's losses to the quality of opposition (France, Norway, USA, Brazil) while respecting their dominant wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya, and treats Iraq's Spain draw as a low-
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage reflected in overwhelming odds support versus the minor availability edge Iraq holds through a completely fit squad. Senegal's questionable goalkeeper is a single data point that backup depth should absorb, while Iraq's full availability provides tactical flexibility but cannot bridge the substantial gap in implied probability. Senegal's three-match losing streak is noted but came against Norway, France, and USA, so form context

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.29

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and home-away splitsExamine recent match records to compare Senegal's home wins and away defeats with Iraq's mixed results, assessing how the schedule-listed home designation in Toronto might align with Senegal's historical home performance.
  • Market odds evaluationAnalyze the 13 captured odds records to understand market expectations and implied probabilities, assessing how bookmakers weigh Senegal's recent losing streak against Iraq's competitive draw with Spain and heavy loss to Norway.
  • Squad availability and injury contextReview the captured injury data, noting Senegal's single reported injury compared to Iraq's fully available squad, to evaluate any potential impact on team selection, squad depth, and tactical flexibility for both sides.

Tokens: 3241

Perspectives

Recent form and home-away splitsHome winThe decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Senegal's excellent home form (4W, 1D in last five home games) against Iraq's inconsistent away results (2W, 1D, 2L), with the schedule-listed home designation in Toronto aligning with Senegal's stronger historical performance at home. Senegal's three consecutive losses were all away matches against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA), while their home performances show defensive solidity and attacking output. Iraq's 1-4 home loss to Norway in the Wor78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and home-away splits

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Senegal's excellent home form (4W, 1D in last five home games) against Iraq's inconsistent away results (2W, 1D, 2L), with the schedule-listed home designation in Toronto aligning with Senegal's stronger historical performance at home. Senegal's three consecutive losses were all away matches against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA), while their home performances show defensive solidity and attacking output. Iraq's 1-4 home loss to Norway in the Wor

Conclusion note

Senegal, the schedule-listed home side, has won four and drawn one of their last five home matches including dominant victories over Peru (2-0), Botswana (3-0) and Kenya (8-0), while Iraq's away record is mixed with losses to Jordan and Algeria alongside a notable draw against Spain. Bookmaker consensus strongly favors Senegal at 77.2% implied probability with odds around 1.22-1.25, consistent with Senegal's historical home strength even though their three most recent results were all away defeats.

Market odds evaluationHome winThe decisive evidence tradeoff is between Senegal's poor recent run (three straight defeats) and the overwhelming bookmaker consensus still pricing them as heavy favorites at 77.2% implied win probability, which has even firmed slightly (+0.57pp) in the latest update. The market apparently attributes Senegal's losses to the quality of opposition (France, Norway, USA, Brazil) while respecting their dominant wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya, and treats Iraq's Spain draw as a low-72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Senegal's poor recent run (three straight defeats) and the overwhelming bookmaker consensus still pricing them as heavy favorites at 77.2% implied win probability, which has even firmed slightly (+0.57pp) in the latest update. The market apparently attributes Senegal's losses to the quality of opposition (France, Norway, USA, Brazil) while respecting their dominant wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya, and treats Iraq's Spain draw as a low-

Conclusion note

Bookmakers across 14 samples price Senegal at roughly 1.22-1.25 (77.2% implied probability), with odds slightly shortening toward kickoff, indicating the market views Senegal's three-match losing streak—all away against France, Norway, and the USA—as understandable results against elite or physical opponents rather than a structural decline. Iraq's encouraging 1-1 friendly draw with Spain is heavily discounted by bookmakers, who appear to weigh Iraq's 1-4 home World Cup loss to Norway as more indicative of their tournament level.

Squad availability and injury contextHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage reflected in overwhelming odds support versus the minor availability edge Iraq holds through a completely fit squad. Senegal's questionable goalkeeper is a single data point that backup depth should absorb, while Iraq's full availability provides tactical flexibility but cannot bridge the substantial gap in implied probability. Senegal's three-match losing streak is noted but came against Norway, France, and USA, so form context68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability and injury context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage reflected in overwhelming odds support versus the minor availability edge Iraq holds through a completely fit squad. Senegal's questionable goalkeeper is a single data point that backup depth should absorb, while Iraq's full availability provides tactical flexibility but cannot bridge the substantial gap in implied probability. Senegal's three-match losing streak is noted but came against Norway, France, and USA, so form context

Conclusion note

Senegal enters as heavy favorites with 77.2% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, and while goalkeeper É. Mendy is listed as questionable, a single injury concern is unlikely to materially disrupt squad depth or tactical plans given typical backup coverage. Iraq benefits from a fully available squad with no reported injuries or suspensions, offering full selection flexibility, but the odds and overall quality differential still point decisively toward Senegal despite their recent consecutive losses to strong opponents.

Synthesis

Senegal enters this match as the heavy favorite, supported by overwhelming bookmaker consensus that prices them at roughly 77 percent implied win probability. Despite suffering three consecutive defeats, those losses came on the road against elite or highly physical opponents like France, Norway, and the USA. In contrast, Senegal's home form remains exceptionally strong, with four wins and a draw in their last five home fixtures, featuring dominant shutout victories. Iraq possesses a fully fit squad and showed resilience in a draw against Spain, but their heavy defeat to Norway and inconsistent away record suggest they will struggle to bridge the significant quality gap. The minor concern over Senegal's goalkeeper availability is unlikely to disrupt their overall tactical superiority, making a comfortable home victory the most probable outcome.

Reasoning summary: All analytical perspectives align in forecasting a victory for Senegal, weighing their formidable home record heavily against Iraq's mixed away performances. The market odds firmly back the home side, treating recent away losses as context-specific rather than indicative of a broader decline. While Iraq benefits from full squad availability and has demonstrated occasional defensive resilience, the overarching quality differential and Senegal's historical dominance at home dictate a high-probabil

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50