Qwen3.7 Max · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win75%Hit
BetAway win$150Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$150
PredictionConfidence: 75%
Home win

Senegal enters this match as heavy favorites against Iraq, a view strongly supported by both bookmaker consensus and common-opponent analysis. The betting market prices Senegal at roughly 77.5 percent implied win probability with stable odds around 1.22, indicating sustained confidence in their squad quality despite recent tournament losses to Norway, France, and the USA. The common-opponent signal is particularly telling: Senegal pushed Norway to a narrow 2-3 away defeat, whereas Iraq suffered a heavy 1-4 home loss to the same side. While Iraq enjoys full squad availability and Senegal faces uncertainty regarding goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, this minor availability edge is not enough to offset Senegal's superior attacking quality and strong home form. The most likely scenario involves Senegal controlling the game and securing a multi-goal victory, though a narrow win remains possible if Iraq defends deep.

Bet
Away win$1503 bets
Net P&L-$150
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 12.26Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Football posture: chaos/upset satellite shot. Match script: Senegal arrives desperate after three straight losses (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA) with a leaky defense conceding 9 goals in those 3 games. Iraq showed genuine defensive resilience by drawing Spain 1-1 and has full squad availability while Senegal faces Mendy uncertainty. At 12.260 execution odds, the payout asymmetry is enormous — a $50 stake (0.5% of bankroll) risks little but captures the small positive model edge (+0.0

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 12.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Contrarian satellite add-on. The model prices Iraq at 10% versus the market's 8.3% implied, giving a thin but positive +1.7% edge at 12.00 execution odds — the best value across all three outcomes. Senegal at 1.25 is overpriced (model 75% vs market 80%) and the draw edge is negligible (+0.7%). Football script: Senegal has leaked 8 goals in their last 3 defeats, suggesting defensive fragility, while Iraq demonstrated resilience by drawing 1-1 with Spain. I already hold a $50 lottery ticket on Ira

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $50
    odds 13.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Contrarian value add to existing upset position. Senegal on a three-game losing streak with serious defensive vulnerabilities (conceded 9 goals in last 3 matches). Iraq showed genuine quality drawing 1-1 with Spain. Market prices Senegal at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%), but model gives them only 72% - negative edge on the favorite. Iraq at 13.00 offers positive edge of +4.3% (model 12% vs market 7.7%). I already hold $100 on Iraq at 12.00-12.26; adding at 13.00 improves average odds and increases expos

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,422.48

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 75%Draw 15%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 1.22 and the common-opponent signal from Norway, where Senegal's narrower away defeat contrasts sharply with Iraq's heavy home loss. Senegal's overall recent form shows resilience with wins over solid opposition at home, while Iraq's wins have largely come against weaker sides and their draw with Spain is offset by the Norway collapse. The only notable uncertainty is Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status
  • - The decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5% win probability with stable odds across 14 bookmaker samples, suggesting that Senegal's squad quality significantly exceeds Iraq's despite both teams struggling in this tournament. The minimal odds movement between the 12:04 and 16:15 update times shows no meaningful market reassessment, and while Senegal's goalkeeper Mendy is listed as questionable, this has not materially shifted pricing. Iraq's respect
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's single questionable goalkeeper and Iraq's complete squad availability versus the overwhelming market and quality signal favoring Senegal. Iraq's fully fit squad provides tactical flexibility and depth, but this advantage is not sufficient to overcome the gap indicated by odds consensus and Senegal's demonstrated attacking capability in prior victories over Gambia, Peru, Benin, and Botswana. The Mendy injury concern is real but limited in scope—being que

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.29

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Common OpponentCompare Senegal and Iraq through their recent matches against Norway, where Senegal lost 2-3 away and Iraq lost 1-4 at home, while also reviewing their overall recent form trends in competitive and friendly fixtures.
  • Market OddsExamine the 13 captured pre-match odds records to understand market expectations, implied probabilities, and any pricing distributions for this group stage encounter between Senegal and Iraq.
  • Squad Risk and InjuriesAssess the impact of Senegal's single recorded injury compared to Iraq's fully fit squad status, considering how squad availability might influence tactical options and depth ahead of the match.

Tokens: 3164

Perspectives

Recent Form and Common OpponentHome winThe decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 1.22 and the common-opponent signal from Norway, where Senegal's narrower away defeat contrasts sharply with Iraq's heavy home loss. Senegal's overall recent form shows resilience with wins over solid opposition at home, while Iraq's wins have largely come against weaker sides and their draw with Spain is offset by the Norway collapse. The only notable uncertainty is Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Common Opponent

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence is the bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 1.22 and the common-opponent signal from Norway, where Senegal's narrower away defeat contrasts sharply with Iraq's heavy home loss. Senegal's overall recent form shows resilience with wins over solid opposition at home, while Iraq's wins have largely come against weaker sides and their draw with Spain is offset by the Norway collapse. The only notable uncertainty is Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy favorites at consensus odds of roughly 1.22-1.24 (about 77.5% implied probability), and the common-opponent comparison supports this: Senegal lost 2-3 away to Norway while Iraq lost 1-4 at home to the same opponent, suggesting Senegal competed far more effectively. Senegal's home record in recent fixtures is strong (five wins and one draw), while Iraq's heaviest recent defeat came in their World Cup opener against Norway.

Market OddsHome winThe decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5% win probability with stable odds across 14 bookmaker samples, suggesting that Senegal's squad quality significantly exceeds Iraq's despite both teams struggling in this tournament. The minimal odds movement between the 12:04 and 16:15 update times shows no meaningful market reassessment, and while Senegal's goalkeeper Mendy is listed as questionable, this has not materially shifted pricing. Iraq's respect74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5% win probability with stable odds across 14 bookmaker samples, suggesting that Senegal's squad quality significantly exceeds Iraq's despite both teams struggling in this tournament. The minimal odds movement between the 12:04 and 16:15 update times shows no meaningful market reassessment, and while Senegal's goalkeeper Mendy is listed as questionable, this has not materially shifted pricing. Iraq's respect

Conclusion note

The betting market prices Senegal as heavy favorites at 77.5% implied probability across 13 captured odds records, with bookmaker lines consistently between 1.22 and 1.24 for a Senegal win, while Iraq sits at 11 to 13.75. Despite Senegal entering on three consecutive losses including World Cup defeats to Norway and France, the market has barely adjusted its pricing with only marginal draw probability increases of 0.09 percentage points, indicating sustained confidence in Senegal's quality over Iraq, who also suffered a 4-1 loss to Norway in their opening group match.

Squad Risk and InjuriesHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's single questionable goalkeeper and Iraq's complete squad availability versus the overwhelming market and quality signal favoring Senegal. Iraq's fully fit squad provides tactical flexibility and depth, but this advantage is not sufficient to overcome the gap indicated by odds consensus and Senegal's demonstrated attacking capability in prior victories over Gambia, Peru, Benin, and Botswana. The Mendy injury concern is real but limited in scope—being que72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad Risk and Injuries

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's single questionable goalkeeper and Iraq's complete squad availability versus the overwhelming market and quality signal favoring Senegal. Iraq's fully fit squad provides tactical flexibility and depth, but this advantage is not sufficient to overcome the gap indicated by odds consensus and Senegal's demonstrated attacking capability in prior victories over Gambia, Peru, Benin, and Botswana. The Mendy injury concern is real but limited in scope—being que

Conclusion note

Senegal enters this group-stage match at Toronto Stadium with goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, their only recorded injury, while Iraq has a fully fit squad with no visible injury concerns. Despite this squad-risk differential slightly favoring Iraq in terms of availability, the bookmaker consensus strongly backs Senegal at 77.5% implied win probability (odds around 1.22-1.24), reflecting Senegal's overall quality edge and sufficient squad depth to absorb one uncertain selection, even though Senegal's recent form shows three consecutive losses to Norway, France, and USA.

Synthesis

Senegal enters this match as heavy favorites against Iraq, a view strongly supported by both bookmaker consensus and common-opponent analysis. The betting market prices Senegal at roughly 77.5 percent implied win probability with stable odds around 1.22, indicating sustained confidence in their squad quality despite recent tournament losses to Norway, France, and the USA. The common-opponent signal is particularly telling: Senegal pushed Norway to a narrow 2-3 away defeat, whereas Iraq suffered a heavy 1-4 home loss to the same side. While Iraq enjoys full squad availability and Senegal faces uncertainty regarding goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, this minor availability edge is not enough to offset Senegal's superior attacking quality and strong home form. The most likely scenario involves Senegal controlling the game and securing a multi-goal victory, though a narrow win remains possible if Iraq defends deep.

Reasoning summary: All analytical perspectives converge on a Senegal victory, driven by overwhelming market consensus and a clear quality gap highlighted by their respective performances against Norway. Senegal's narrower defeat to Norway compared to Iraq's heavy loss underscores a significant competitive advantage for the home side. Although Iraq has a fully fit squad and Senegal's starting goalkeeper is questionable, the depth and overall tactical superiority of Senegal neutralize this minor availability differe

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50