MiMo V2.5 Pro · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win78%Hit
BetBet portfolio$375Bet portfolio
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$67.5
PredictionConfidence: 78%
Home win

Senegal are heavily favoured by bookmakers with an implied win probability of 78% across 14 samples, reflecting their quality advantage despite recent World Cup losses to Norway and France. Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway underscores their defensive weaknesses, but Senegal's questionable goalkeeper É. Mendy status introduces uncertainty into their backline stability, though market odds remain firm.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3753 bets
Net P&L-$67.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 1.23Settled: win+$57.5

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction on Senegal (77.5% model probability). Match script: Senegal have scored 10 goals in 5 matches against strong teams including France and Norway, while Iraq were demolished 1-4 at home by Norway. Quality gap is significant. Execution odds at Pinnacle (1.230) imply ~81.3%, slightly compressed vs model's 77.5%, but the football narrative strongly supports a comfortable Senegal victory. Moderate conviction stake at ~4% bankroll on the clearly superior side.

    Payout: $307.5 · Balance after: $6,483.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $75
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$75

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw/trap protection hedge. Senegal heavily favored but have lost 3 straight, conceding 3 goals each time, with GK Mendy questionable. Iraq showed defensive resolve vs Spain (1-1) and could frustrate Senegal in a cagey World Cup group stage match. Model gives draw +0.007 edge at 7.00 execution odds. Small $75 satellite hedge (~1.2% bankroll) against existing $250 Senegal position, protecting against their recent non-winning pattern.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,483.5

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $50
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with satellite score bet. Match script: Senegal control possession and territory against an Iraq side that conceded 4 to Norway, but given Senegal's own defensive concerns and recent struggles (3 straight losses to quality sides), a professional 1-0 grind feels more likely than a blowout. The model gives 1-0 a 20% probability vs. market implied 12.5% at odds of 8.000, creating meaningful edge on a modest satellite stake. Existing 1x2 positions ($250 Senegal,

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,483.5

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 78%Draw 14%Away win 8%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds capture provides the single strongest piece of evidence: 14 bookmakers consistently price Senegal at 1.20-1.25 and Iraq at 9.4-14.75, yielding a 77.7% implied probability for a Senegal win with no drift over the observation period. This deep favourite pricing is partially offset by Senegal losing both their World Cup matches so far and by the Mendy availability concern, but Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway in the same competition and their generally weaker recent record against top-leve
  • - Comparing the last five results: Senegal have two home friendly wins (Gambia 3-1, Peru 2-0) but three straight competitive away losses, raising concerns about their ability to perform at neutral venues; Iraq's record includes a credible draw with Spain away and two competitive wins (Bolivia, Andorra), but also a 1-4 home collapse against Norway, the same opponent Senegal faced. The decisive tradeoff is that while Senegal's away form in World Cup matches is poor, the bookmaker odds strongly favor
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage—supported by stable, heavily-favoured odds across 14 bookmakers—and the uncertainty created by Mendy's questionable injury status and missing lineup data for both teams. Senegal's recent losses to France and Norway occurred against elite opponents, while Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposed significant defensive fragility. The market has not moved despite the goalkeeper concern, suggesting either Senegal have adequate backup

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.07Log loss 0.25

Meta thinking

  • Market odds captureAnalyze the 13 captured odds entries to infer market sentiment and implied probabilities for Senegal versus Iraq.
  • Recent match performanceCompare the last five results for Senegal and Iraq, noting the competition type and home/away status from visible records.
  • Injury and lineup uncertaintyEvaluate the observed injury for Senegal and the absence of lineup data to assess potential impacts on team composition.

Tokens: 3747

Perspectives

Market odds captureHome winThe odds capture provides the single strongest piece of evidence: 14 bookmakers consistently price Senegal at 1.20-1.25 and Iraq at 9.4-14.75, yielding a 77.7% implied probability for a Senegal win with no drift over the observation period. This deep favourite pricing is partially offset by Senegal losing both their World Cup matches so far and by the Mendy availability concern, but Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway in the same competition and their generally weaker recent record against top-leve72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds capture

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The odds capture provides the single strongest piece of evidence: 14 bookmakers consistently price Senegal at 1.20-1.25 and Iraq at 9.4-14.75, yielding a 77.7% implied probability for a Senegal win with no drift over the observation period. This deep favourite pricing is partially offset by Senegal losing both their World Cup matches so far and by the Mendy availability concern, but Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway in the same competition and their generally weaker recent record against top-leve

Conclusion note

Senegal are priced as heavy favourites by the market with a consensus implied win probability of 77.7% across 14 bookmaker samples, while Iraq's implied win chance sits at just 7.7%; the spread between the two sides is wide and stable, with zero probability movement across the visible update window, indicating firm market conviction. However, Senegal's recent World Cup form is a concern—they lost to Norway 2-3 and France 1-3 in their opening group matches—and goalkeeper É. Mendy's status is questionable, which tempers the certainty of the market signal.

Recent match performanceHome winComparing the last five results: Senegal have two home friendly wins (Gambia 3-1, Peru 2-0) but three straight competitive away losses, raising concerns about their ability to perform at neutral venues; Iraq's record includes a credible draw with Spain away and two competitive wins (Bolivia, Andorra), but also a 1-4 home collapse against Norway, the same opponent Senegal faced. The decisive tradeoff is that while Senegal's away form in World Cup matches is poor, the bookmaker odds strongly favor68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent match performance

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. Comparing the last five results: Senegal have two home friendly wins (Gambia 3-1, Peru 2-0) but three straight competitive away losses, raising concerns about their ability to perform at neutral venues; Iraq's record includes a credible draw with Spain away and two competitive wins (Bolivia, Andorra), but also a 1-4 home collapse against Norway, the same opponent Senegal faced. The decisive tradeoff is that while Senegal's away form in World Cup matches is poor, the bookmaker odds strongly favor

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy favourites per bookmaker consensus (77.7% implied probability) heading into this World Cup 2026 group-stage match against Iraq in Toronto, though their recent competitive form shows three consecutive away losses to Norway (2-3), France (1-3), and the USA (2-3). Iraq also suffered a heavy 1-4 home loss to Norway in the World Cup but showed resilience with a 1-1 away draw against Spain and a 2-1 World Cup qualifying win over Bolivia.

Injury and lineup uncertaintyHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage—supported by stable, heavily-favoured odds across 14 bookmakers—and the uncertainty created by Mendy's questionable injury status and missing lineup data for both teams. Senegal's recent losses to France and Norway occurred against elite opponents, while Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposed significant defensive fragility. The market has not moved despite the goalkeeper concern, suggesting either Senegal have adequate backup70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury and lineup uncertainty

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check availability facts

    #9

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The decisive tradeoff is between Senegal's clear quality advantage—supported by stable, heavily-favoured odds across 14 bookmakers—and the uncertainty created by Mendy's questionable injury status and missing lineup data for both teams. Senegal's recent losses to France and Norway occurred against elite opponents, while Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposed significant defensive fragility. The market has not moved despite the goalkeeper concern, suggesting either Senegal have adequate backup

Conclusion note

Senegal are overwhelming favourites against Iraq with bookmakers implying a 77.7% win probability, though the questionable status of goalkeeper É. Mendy and the complete absence of lineup data for either side introduces meaningful uncertainty about Senegal's defensive composition. Iraq were thrashed 1-4 by Norway at home in the World Cup, suggesting they are vulnerable against quality opposition, but the lack of confirmed lineups means we cannot fully assess whether Senegal will field their strongest XI or how Mendy's potential absence might affect their backline stability.

Synthesis

Senegal are heavily favoured by bookmakers with an implied win probability of 78% across 14 samples, reflecting their quality advantage despite recent World Cup losses to Norway and France. Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway underscores their defensive weaknesses, but Senegal's questionable goalkeeper É. Mendy status introduces uncertainty into their backline stability, though market odds remain firm.

Reasoning summary: All perspectives agree on a Senegal win, anchored by market odds showing a 78% implied probability with no drift. Recent match performance highlights Senegal's away losses but Iraq's poor record against top teams, while injury and lineup concerns add mild risk without altering the prediction, as Iraq's vulnerability against quality opposition is well-established.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50