MiMo V2.5 Pro · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win78%Hit
BetBet portfolio$375Bet portfolio
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$67.5
PredictionConfidence: 78%
Home win

Senegal are clear favorites against Iraq based on consistent bookmaker consensus showing a 77.5% win probability. Senegal's recent form includes scoring 10 goals in 5 matches against strong teams like France and Norway, while Iraq conceded heavily in a 1-4 home loss to Norway. The only uncertainty is Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's availability, but it does not significantly alter the quality gap between the sides.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3753 bets
Net P&L-$67.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 1.23Settled: win+$57.5

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction on Senegal (77.5% model probability). Match script: Senegal have scored 10 goals in 5 matches against strong teams including France and Norway, while Iraq were demolished 1-4 at home by Norway. Quality gap is significant. Execution odds at Pinnacle (1.230) imply ~81.3%, slightly compressed vs model's 77.5%, but the football narrative strongly supports a comfortable Senegal victory. Moderate conviction stake at ~4% bankroll on the clearly superior side.

    Payout: $307.5 · Balance after: $6,483.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $75
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$75

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw/trap protection hedge. Senegal heavily favored but have lost 3 straight, conceding 3 goals each time, with GK Mendy questionable. Iraq showed defensive resolve vs Spain (1-1) and could frustrate Senegal in a cagey World Cup group stage match. Model gives draw +0.007 edge at 7.00 execution odds. Small $75 satellite hedge (~1.2% bankroll) against existing $250 Senegal position, protecting against their recent non-winning pattern.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,483.5

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $50
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with satellite score bet. Match script: Senegal control possession and territory against an Iraq side that conceded 4 to Norway, but given Senegal's own defensive concerns and recent struggles (3 straight losses to quality sides), a professional 1-0 grind feels more likely than a blowout. The model gives 1-0 a 20% probability vs. market implied 12.5% at odds of 8.000, creating meaningful edge on a modest satellite stake. Existing 1x2 positions ($250 Senegal,

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,483.5

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 78%Draw 15%Away win 8%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 13 observed betting odds across 14 bookmaker samples present an extremely consistent and stable market view favoring Senegal with approximately 77.5% implied win probability, with only minimal consensus movement over the visible update window (side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp). Iraq's recent 1-4 home loss to Norway and Senegal's competitive performances despite narrow defeats to top teams like France and Norway support the market's heavy Senegal favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensi
  • - Senegal's last 5 matches show 2 wins and 3 losses but all defeats came away to quality sides (Norway, France, USA), while they beat weaker opponents at home. Iraq's last 5 show 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a much lower goal output, including a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway at home. The key comparison point is Norway: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, suggesting Senegal are substantially stronger. Combined with bookmaker consensus heavily favoring Senegal at 77.5%, the form data
  • - Senegal's single injury concern (Mendy questionable) is the only availability issue for either team, but the bookmaker consensus still strongly favors Senegal at roughly 1.22-1.24 odds. Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposes defensive weaknesses that Senegal can exploit, and while Mendy's potential absence introduces some uncertainty in goal, it does not fundamentally alter the quality gap between these sides. Confidence is moderate-high rather than high due to the goalkeeper uncertainty and b

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.08Log loss 0.25

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisAnalyze the 13 observed betting odds to gauge market expectations and implied probabilities for the Senegal vs Iraq match.
  • Recent form comparisonReview the last five matches of Senegal and Iraq to identify patterns in results, goal-scoring, and competitive performance trends.
  • Injury status evaluationAssess the potential impact of Senegal's one reported injury on their team selection and tactical approach against Iraq.

Tokens: 3205

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winThe 13 observed betting odds across 14 bookmaker samples present an extremely consistent and stable market view favoring Senegal with approximately 77.5% implied win probability, with only minimal consensus movement over the visible update window (side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp). Iraq's recent 1-4 home loss to Norway and Senegal's competitive performances despite narrow defeats to top teams like France and Norway support the market's heavy Senegal favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensi76%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The 13 observed betting odds across 14 bookmaker samples present an extremely consistent and stable market view favoring Senegal with approximately 77.5% implied win probability, with only minimal consensus movement over the visible update window (side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp). Iraq's recent 1-4 home loss to Norway and Senegal's competitive performances despite narrow defeats to top teams like France and Norway support the market's heavy Senegal favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensi

Conclusion note

The betting market identifies Senegal as clear favorites with a consensus implied win probability of 77.5% derived from 14 bookmaker samples, with best odds of 1.22-1.24 across major operators including bet365, William Hill, 10bet, and Marathonbet; Iraq's implied win probability stands at just 7.6% with odds ranging from 11.5 to 13.75, while the draw market sits at 14.9% with odds of 5.7-6.6, confirming a strong market expectation of a Senegal victory.

Recent form comparisonHome winSenegal's last 5 matches show 2 wins and 3 losses but all defeats came away to quality sides (Norway, France, USA), while they beat weaker opponents at home. Iraq's last 5 show 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a much lower goal output, including a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway at home. The key comparison point is Norway: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, suggesting Senegal are substantially stronger. Combined with bookmaker consensus heavily favoring Senegal at 77.5%, the form data72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Senegal's last 5 matches show 2 wins and 3 losses but all defeats came away to quality sides (Norway, France, USA), while they beat weaker opponents at home. Iraq's last 5 show 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a much lower goal output, including a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway at home. The key comparison point is Norway: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, suggesting Senegal are substantially stronger. Combined with bookmaker consensus heavily favoring Senegal at 77.5%, the form data

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavily favored by bookmakers with 77.5% implied win probability (odds 1.22-1.24), and their recent form shows consistent goal-scoring with 10 goals across their last 5 matches, including against strong opposition like France and Norway, while Iraq scored only 5 goals in their last 5 and were demolished 1-4 at home by Norway. Both teams share a vulnerability shown by losses to Norway, but Senegal's attacking quality is significantly higher and Iraq's recent results include a narrow 1-0 win over Andorra and a 0-1 loss to Jordan.

Injury status evaluationHome winSenegal's single injury concern (Mendy questionable) is the only availability issue for either team, but the bookmaker consensus still strongly favors Senegal at roughly 1.22-1.24 odds. Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposes defensive weaknesses that Senegal can exploit, and while Mendy's potential absence introduces some uncertainty in goal, it does not fundamentally alter the quality gap between these sides. Confidence is moderate-high rather than high due to the goalkeeper uncertainty and b74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury status evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check availability facts

    #9

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  15. Check tournament context

    #14

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  16. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  17. Senegal's single injury concern (Mendy questionable) is the only availability issue for either team, but the bookmaker consensus still strongly favors Senegal at roughly 1.22-1.24 odds. Iraq's 1-4 home defeat to Norway exposes defensive weaknesses that Senegal can exploit, and while Mendy's potential absence introduces some uncertainty in goal, it does not fundamentally alter the quality gap between these sides. Confidence is moderate-high rather than high due to the goalkeeper uncertainty and b

Conclusion note

Senegal are strong favorites at 77.5% implied probability despite the question mark over goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's availability, and Iraq showed significant defensive frailty in their 1-4 World Cup loss to Norway, suggesting Senegal's attacking quality should prevail even if they need to deploy a backup goalkeeper.

Synthesis

Senegal are clear favorites against Iraq based on consistent bookmaker consensus showing a 77.5% win probability. Senegal's recent form includes scoring 10 goals in 5 matches against strong teams like France and Norway, while Iraq conceded heavily in a 1-4 home loss to Norway. The only uncertainty is Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's availability, but it does not significantly alter the quality gap between the sides.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on a Senegal victory. Market odds analysis provides the strongest evidence with a 77.5% implied win probability from 14 bookmakers. Recent form comparison highlights Senegal's superior goal-scoring output and Iraq's defensive frailty, while injury status evaluation confirms no major absences for either team, with only a minor concern for Senegal's goalkeeper.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50