Kimi K2.6 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win76%Hit
BetHome win$660Aligned
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L+$158.4
PredictionConfidence: 76%
Home win

Senegal are firm favorites against Iraq, with market consensus and form analysis both pointing to a home victory. Bookmakers imply roughly a 77.5% win probability for Senegal, with stable pricing across multiple sources and minimal movement between updates. Senegal's three consecutive losses were all away from home, while their home record in the available sample includes convincing wins over Gambia, Peru and Kenya. Iraq arrive with a clean injury slate but suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Norway in their most recent outing and have shown vulnerability at this level. Senegal's only availability concern is goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being questionable, though squad depth in that position is typically manageable. The lack of head-to-head data and unconfirmed lineups introduce some uncertainty, but the evidence gap between the sides is substantial. A Senegal win by multiple goals appears the most probable outcome, though a narrow victory or draw cannot be fully ruled out given the absence of confirmed team news.

Bet
Home win$6603 bets
Net P&L+$158.4
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.24Settled: win+$72

    Betting rationale：Senegal are heavy favorites with model confidence at 0.740 and execution odds of 1.240 (implied ~80.6%). The match script is straightforward: Senegal's superior pedigree against a defensive Iraq side that shipped four to Norway. While Senegal have lost three straight, those were against France and Norway—elite opposition. Iraq's draw with Spain shows resilience, but their 1-4 loss to Norway and generally thin squad suggest they'll struggle to contain Senegal's pace. The existing open positions a

    Payout: $372 · Balance after: $7,682.4

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $180
    odds 1.23Settled: win+$41.4

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a cold-value overlay. Match script: Senegal are in a must-win group-stage spot after two away losses, returning to a home-venue feel in Toronto where they've previously looked cohesive. Iraq were thumped 1-4 by Norway and struggled to impose themselves against stronger sides. The model gives Senegal a 76% win probability, and while the execution price of 1.23 offers slight negative edge versus the model, the best-market edge is tighter and the real driver is tou

    Payout: $221.4 · Balance after: $7,085.4

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $180
    odds 1.25Settled: win+$45

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a modest top-up. Match script: Senegal are the clear class of this tie—athletic, organized, and facing an Iraq side that shipped four against Norway and has shown little against higher-tier opposition. Toronto's neutral turf won't bother Senegal's diaspora-friendly support. The model gives Senegal a 77% win probability, and while the execution price (1.250) is slightly below fair, the edge gap is tiny and the story is strong: Senegal's pressing and transition qu

    Payout: $225 · Balance after: $7,310.4

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 76%Draw 16%Away win 8%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus strongly supports a Senegal victory, with minimal movement between the two visible update times (12:04 and 16:15 UTC) suggesting stable market confidence rather than uncertainty. Senegal’s recent form includes two losses in the World Cup, but Iraq has also struggled, including a heavy home defeat to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the decisive factor is the clear and stable market pricing that makes Senegal the firm favorite.
  • - The market strongly favors Senegal despite their recent three-match losing streak, and the form split matters: Senegal's losses were all away, whereas their home results in the sample are convincing. Iraq showed resilience in drawing Spain away and winning a playoff, but the heavy defeat to Norway and generally lower-tier opposition raise questions. With no head-to-head data and only a questionable goalkeeper concern for Senegal, the safer read is a Senegal win, though confidence is tempered by
  • - The decisive factor is the large gap in implied win probability between Senegal and Iraq, with Senegal at 77.5% and Iraq at just 7.6%. Although Senegal have a questionable goalkeeper, Iraq's recent form in the tournament has been poor, including a 1-4 home loss to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the odds consensus and recent form point clearly to a Senegal victory, though confidence is slightly tempered by the single injury note and absence of confirmed lineups.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 11.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.09Log loss 0.27

Meta thinking

  • market odds and implied probabilitiesExamine the 13 captured odds sets to see how bookmakers weight Senegal's home-listing against Iraq's injury-free squad, and whether any odds movement hints at market confidence or uncertainty.
  • recent competitive form and tournament trajectoryCompare Senegal's three consecutive losses in World Cup and friendly away matches with Iraq's mixed results including a competitive draw against Spain and a World Cup playoff win, noting home/away performance splits.
  • squad availability and injury impactAssess the visible injury observation for Senegal (1 recorded) against Iraq's clean injury slate, considering how this asymmetry might affect lineup strength given that full lineups are not yet captured.

Tokens: 1792

Perspectives

market odds and implied probabilitiesHome winThe odds consensus strongly supports a Senegal victory, with minimal movement between the two visible update times (12:04 and 16:15 UTC) suggesting stable market confidence rather than uncertainty. Senegal’s recent form includes two losses in the World Cup, but Iraq has also struggled, including a heavy home defeat to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the decisive factor is the clear and stable market pricing that makes Senegal the firm favorite.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds and implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The odds consensus strongly supports a Senegal victory, with minimal movement between the two visible update times (12:04 and 16:15 UTC) suggesting stable market confidence rather than uncertainty. Senegal’s recent form includes two losses in the World Cup, but Iraq has also struggled, including a heavy home defeat to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the decisive factor is the clear and stable market pricing that makes Senegal the firm favorite.

Conclusion note

Bookmakers heavily favor Senegal with a consensus implied probability around 77.5% for a win, and the latest representative lines from 10bet, bet365, and marathonbet all price Senegal near 1.22–1.24 while offering long odds on Iraq at 11.5–13.75. Iraq is injury-free, but Senegal’s only availability concern is a questionable goalkeeper, É. Mendy, which does not appear to shift market confidence.

recent competitive form and tournament trajectoryHome winThe market strongly favors Senegal despite their recent three-match losing streak, and the form split matters: Senegal's losses were all away, whereas their home results in the sample are convincing. Iraq showed resilience in drawing Spain away and winning a playoff, but the heavy defeat to Norway and generally lower-tier opposition raise questions. With no head-to-head data and only a questionable goalkeeper concern for Senegal, the safer read is a Senegal win, though confidence is tempered by72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form and tournament trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market strongly favors Senegal despite their recent three-match losing streak, and the form split matters: Senegal's losses were all away, whereas their home results in the sample are convincing. Iraq showed resilience in drawing Spain away and winning a playoff, but the heavy defeat to Norway and generally lower-tier opposition raise questions. With no head-to-head data and only a questionable goalkeeper concern for Senegal, the safer read is a Senegal win, though confidence is tempered by

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy odds-on favorites with a consensus implied win probability near 77.5%, while Iraq are priced at around 12.0. Senegal enter on three straight defeats, but those were all away from home; their home record in the sample is strong with wins over Gambia, Peru and Kenya. Iraq have mixed results including a creditable away draw with Spain and a World Cup playoff victory, yet they were beaten 1-4 at home by Norway in their most recent outing.

squad availability and injury impactHome winThe decisive factor is the large gap in implied win probability between Senegal and Iraq, with Senegal at 77.5% and Iraq at just 7.6%. Although Senegal have a questionable goalkeeper, Iraq's recent form in the tournament has been poor, including a 1-4 home loss to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the odds consensus and recent form point clearly to a Senegal victory, though confidence is slightly tempered by the single injury note and absence of confirmed lineups.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    squad availability and injury impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The decisive factor is the large gap in implied win probability between Senegal and Iraq, with Senegal at 77.5% and Iraq at just 7.6%. Although Senegal have a questionable goalkeeper, Iraq's recent form in the tournament has been poor, including a 1-4 home loss to Norway. Without head-to-head data and with lineups uncaptured, the odds consensus and recent form point clearly to a Senegal victory, though confidence is slightly tempered by the single injury note and absence of confirmed lineups.

Conclusion note

Senegal are strongly favoured by the bookmaker consensus, with an 77.5% implied win probability, while Iraq have a clean injury slate but have lost their last two World Cup matches by heavy margins. Senegal's only visible availability concern is goalkeeper É. Mendy being questionable, which is mitigated by the fact that squad depth in that position is usually manageable and no other injuries or suspensions are recorded.

Synthesis

Senegal are firm favorites against Iraq, with market consensus and form analysis both pointing to a home victory. Bookmakers imply roughly a 77.5% win probability for Senegal, with stable pricing across multiple sources and minimal movement between updates. Senegal's three consecutive losses were all away from home, while their home record in the available sample includes convincing wins over Gambia, Peru and Kenya. Iraq arrive with a clean injury slate but suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Norway in their most recent outing and have shown vulnerability at this level. Senegal's only availability concern is goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being questionable, though squad depth in that position is typically manageable. The lack of head-to-head data and unconfirmed lineups introduce some uncertainty, but the evidence gap between the sides is substantial. A Senegal win by multiple goals appears the most probable outcome, though a narrow victory or draw cannot be fully ruled out given the absence of confirmed team news.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a Senegal win with high confidence, citing stable market pricing near 77.5% implied probability, Senegal's strong home form versus away losses, and Iraq's poor recent results including a 4-1 home defeat to Norway. The only cautionary note across views is Senegal's questionable goalkeeper and the absence of confirmed lineups, which modestly tempers confidence. No perspective favors Iraq or a draw, and the recalled memory of Iraq's heavy loss to Norway reinforces

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 11.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50