GLM-5.1 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win72%Hit
BetBet portfolio$420Bet portfolio
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$207.5
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Home win

Senegal are favored against Iraq based on a clear quality gap reflected in tight bookmaker consensus around 77.5% implied probability, supported by common-opponent evidence: Senegal scored twice in a 2-3 loss to Norway while Iraq conceded four in a 1-4 defeat to the same side. Senegal's three consecutive losses came against elite opponents (Norway, France, USA) and they scored twice in every match, whereas Iraq's competitive record is weaker with losses to Jordan and Algeria in the Arab Cup alongside their heavy World Cup opener defeat. Édouard Mendy's questionable status introduces mild defensive uncertainty, but Iraq's own defensive fragility — conceding four against Norway — limits the impact of that concern. The probability is calibrated below the market's 77.5% to account for Senegal's recent losing streak and Mendy's availability question, settling at 72% for a Senegal win with draw at 18% and an Iraq upset at 10%.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4203 bets
Net P&L-$207.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.25Settled: win+$42.5

    Betting rationale：Senegal are clear favourites — quality gap vs Iraq is significant, and Iraq's 1-4 loss to Norway compares poorly to Senegal's closer 2-3 defeat against the same side. Prediction at 70% Senegal win with top scores 2-0/1-0 aligns with the match script of Senegal controlling tempo against a weaker opponent. Execution price 1.250 is short but playable given conviction. Existing draw position at $140/6.81 provides a hedge; adding a Senegal win stake creates a portfolio covering both the favourite pat

    Payout: $212.5 · Balance after: $7,949.8

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $140
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$140

    Betting rationale：The draw offers the best executable value with +0.033 edge vs Pinnacle and +0.038 vs best market. Senegal are favored but carry real risks: three straight losses (albeit to elite sides), Mendy's questionable status, and tournament pressure as expected winners against a compact underdog. Iraq held Spain to a draw in a June friendly and will likely sit deep, making this a classic draw trap scenario. Senegal's losing streak and defensive uncertainty lower their win probability below market consensu

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,737.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $110
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$110

    Betting rationale：Draw trap add: Senegal are rightly favored but market is overconfident at 1.24 implied ~81%, while model sees 18% draw vs 14.3% implied — a +3.7% edge on execution price 7.000. Senegal conceded 3 goals per match vs elite opposition and Mendy is questionable; Iraq held Spain to 1-1 showing resilience. High humidity (96%) and moderate wind could slow tempo, aiding a compact underdog. Already holding $140 draw at 6.81 and $170 side_a_win at 1.25; this $110 add increases draw exposure to ~$250 total

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,949.8

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 72%Draw 18%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 13 captured odds observations show an exceptionally strong and stable bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5%, with minimal probability movement across update points. Calibrating against recent form, Senegal's three consecutive losses temper that implied probability somewhat, while Iraq's heavier loss to the common opponent Norway (1-4 vs Senegal's 2-3) supports the underlying quality gap. The tight bookmaker agreement and common-opponent comparison justify favoring Senegal, but
  • - Senegal have lost three straight matches conceding 3 goals each, but those defeats came against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA) while they still scored in every game. Iraq conceded 4 against Norway in their World Cup opener and their notable 1-1 draw with Spain was a friendly, limiting its reliability as a resilience signal; Iraq also lost to Jordan and Algeria in the Arab Cup. The odds market rates Senegal at ~77.5% to win, reflecting the substantial quality gap. Senegal's defensive vuln
  • - The availability asymmetry is narrow—only É. Mendy (GK, #16) is questionable for Senegal versus zero injuries for Iraq—and a questionable goalkeeper can usually be covered by a squad backup, so the tactical flexibility impact is limited. Iraq's clean injury sheet offers more selection options, but Iraq's recent form (a 4-1 World Cup loss to Norway and mixed results against weaker opposition) and Senegal's stronger overall squad quality, as confirmed by the 77.5% implied win probability consensus

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.12Log loss 0.33

Meta thinking

  • Market odds calibrationExamine the 13 captured pre-match odds observations to assess implied probability distributions and detect any divergence between bookmaker consensus and participant calibration history, focusing on whether high-confidence picks align with market pricing for this group-stage fixture.
  • Recent competitive form and defensive vulnerabilityCompare both teams' recent match results—Senegal losing three consecutive matches while conceding 3 goals each, and Iraq conceding 4 against Norway in their World Cup opener—to evaluate whether defensive fragility patterns suggest high-scoring potential or whether Iraq's draw against Spain signals competitive resilience worth weighting.
  • Injury-adjusted squad availabilityInvestigate the impact of Senegal's one observed injury (recorded at 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z) versus Iraq's zero injuries on probable lineup strength, noting that lineups are not yet captured, so the analysis must focus on how the asymmetry in injury counts may shift selection options and tactical flexibility before kickoff.

Tokens: 2355

Perspectives

Market odds calibrationHome winThe 13 captured odds observations show an exceptionally strong and stable bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5%, with minimal probability movement across update points. Calibrating against recent form, Senegal's three consecutive losses temper that implied probability somewhat, while Iraq's heavier loss to the common opponent Norway (1-4 vs Senegal's 2-3) supports the underlying quality gap. The tight bookmaker agreement and common-opponent comparison justify favoring Senegal, but68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds calibration

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The 13 captured odds observations show an exceptionally strong and stable bookmaker consensus pricing Senegal at roughly 77.5%, with minimal probability movement across update points. Calibrating against recent form, Senegal's three consecutive losses temper that implied probability somewhat, while Iraq's heavier loss to the common opponent Norway (1-4 vs Senegal's 2-3) supports the underlying quality gap. The tight bookmaker agreement and common-opponent comparison justify favoring Senegal, but

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus implies a 77.5% probability for Senegal, with odds extremely tight across 10bet, William Hill, Bet365 and Marathonbet (1.22–1.24), but Senegal's recent three-match losing streak against Norway, France and USA suggests the market may be slightly overconfident; Iraq's 1-4 loss to the same Norway side Senegal faced (2-3) confirms a quality gap, yet the draw and upset chances remain non-trivial in a World Cup group-stage context.

Recent competitive form and defensive vulnerabilityHome winSenegal have lost three straight matches conceding 3 goals each, but those defeats came against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA) while they still scored in every game. Iraq conceded 4 against Norway in their World Cup opener and their notable 1-1 draw with Spain was a friendly, limiting its reliability as a resilience signal; Iraq also lost to Jordan and Algeria in the Arab Cup. The odds market rates Senegal at ~77.5% to win, reflecting the substantial quality gap. Senegal's defensive vuln72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form and defensive vulnerability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Senegal have lost three straight matches conceding 3 goals each, but those defeats came against strong opponents (Norway, France, USA) while they still scored in every game. Iraq conceded 4 against Norway in their World Cup opener and their notable 1-1 draw with Spain was a friendly, limiting its reliability as a resilience signal; Iraq also lost to Jordan and Algeria in the Arab Cup. The odds market rates Senegal at ~77.5% to win, reflecting the substantial quality gap. Senegal's defensive vuln

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavily favored at ~77.5% implied probability and possess a clear quality edge, scoring twice in each of their last three defeats despite conceding three goals per match; Iraq conceded four against Norway in their World Cup opener and their 1-1 draw with Spain came in a friendly, so their competitive resilience signal is modest. Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy's questionable status adds some defensive uncertainty, but Iraq's own defensive fragility and weaker overall record make a Senegal win the most defensible outcome.

Injury-adjusted squad availabilityHome winThe availability asymmetry is narrow—only É. Mendy (GK, #16) is questionable for Senegal versus zero injuries for Iraq—and a questionable goalkeeper can usually be covered by a squad backup, so the tactical flexibility impact is limited. Iraq's clean injury sheet offers more selection options, but Iraq's recent form (a 4-1 World Cup loss to Norway and mixed results against weaker opposition) and Senegal's stronger overall squad quality, as confirmed by the 77.5% implied win probability consensus68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury-adjusted squad availability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The availability asymmetry is narrow—only É. Mendy (GK, #16) is questionable for Senegal versus zero injuries for Iraq—and a questionable goalkeeper can usually be covered by a squad backup, so the tactical flexibility impact is limited. Iraq's clean injury sheet offers more selection options, but Iraq's recent form (a 4-1 World Cup loss to Norway and mixed results against weaker opposition) and Senegal's stronger overall squad quality, as confirmed by the 77.5% implied win probability consensus

Conclusion note

Senegal carry one injury concern with goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, while Iraq report no injuries, giving Iraq full selection flexibility; however, a single questionable goalkeeper status is unlikely to overturn the substantial quality gap reflected in bookmaker consensus odds that give Senegal roughly a 77.5% win probability, despite Senegal's recent three consecutive losses.

Synthesis

Senegal are favored against Iraq based on a clear quality gap reflected in tight bookmaker consensus around 77.5% implied probability, supported by common-opponent evidence: Senegal scored twice in a 2-3 loss to Norway while Iraq conceded four in a 1-4 defeat to the same side. Senegal's three consecutive losses came against elite opponents (Norway, France, USA) and they scored twice in every match, whereas Iraq's competitive record is weaker with losses to Jordan and Algeria in the Arab Cup alongside their heavy World Cup opener defeat. Édouard Mendy's questionable status introduces mild defensive uncertainty, but Iraq's own defensive fragility — conceding four against Norway — limits the impact of that concern. The probability is calibrated below the market's 77.5% to account for Senegal's recent losing streak and Mendy's availability question, settling at 72% for a Senegal win with draw at 18% and an Iraq upset at 10%.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on a Senegal win with confidences ranging from 0.68 to 0.72. The market consensus implies roughly 77.5% for Senegal, calibrated downward due to their three-match losing streak and Édouard Mendy's questionable availability. Iraq's heavier loss to common opponent Norway (1-4 versus Senegal's 2-3) confirms a genuine quality gap, and Iraq's notable 1-1 draw with Spain came in a friendly, offering limited competitive resilience evidence. Iraq also lost to Jordan and Alger

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50