ERNIE 5.1 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win75%Hit
BetBet portfolio$880Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$880
PredictionConfidence: 75%
Home win

Senegal are strong favorites over Iraq at a neutral Toronto venue, with the market pricing them at 77.2% implied probability despite three consecutive narrow World Cup defeats against Norway, France and the USA. The key tension is that all three losses were close scorelines against elite opposition, suggesting Senegal remain competitive even in poor form, while Iraq's record is genuinely mixed — a credible 1-1 draw with Spain but also a heavy 4-1 loss to Norway and defeats to Jordan and Algeria. Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is listed as questionable, which injects some squad-depth uncertainty, yet Iraq report no injuries and the odds have actually strengthened for Senegal since this morning. A likely scenario is Senegal controlling possession and grinding out a narrow win, though Iraq's resilience could keep the score tight into the second half.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8803 bets
Net P&L-$880
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $430
    odds 12.26Settled: loss-$430

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset posture. Senegal arrive in Toronto on a brutal three-match losing streak, conceding 3+ goals each time to Norway, France, and the USA, with a reported injury adding defensive uncertainty. Iraq are fully fit, just drew Spain 1-1, and while they lost heavily to Norway, they've shown real resilience. The market prices Senegal at ~81% implied probability but the model sees only 68% — and crucially, the model shows positive edge on Iraq (+5.8% at Pinnacle 12.260, +7.2% at best market

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Hedge posture: Already hold $430 on Iraq at 12.260 (contrarian bet with slight edge vs Pinnacle's 12.000). The model's best edge is on the draw at +0.017 vs Pinnacle's 7.000, and the script supports it — Senegal's three narrow losses to elite teams suggest they grind out tight games, while Iraq's 1-1 with Spain proves they can park the bus. A $250 draw hedge (≈3% of bankroll) covers the 16% draw probability and complements the Iraq position, creating a balanced contrarian portfolio on the two no

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Contrarian hedge with confirmed model edge. Senegal's three losses were all by one goal — they're leaking, not collapsing. Iraq got thrashed but are fully fit and will defend deep in a group-stage must-not-lose. The draw at 7.000 carries +0.077 model edge (best in the market), and the script supports a grind-it-out 0-0 or 1-1. Already holding Iraq upset + draw; adding $200 to draw strengthens the contrarian portfolio at 3.2% bankroll risk.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 75%Draw 16%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.2%) over Iraq (7.9%), indicating the market treats Senegal's three consecutive narrow defeats against strong opposition as a form trough rather than structural decline, especially given their prior wins over Gambia, Peru and Benin; Iraq's mixed record includes an impressive Spain draw but also a 4-1 loss to Norway and defeats to Jordan and Algeria, making them less reliable; the questionable status of Senegal's goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces som
  • - The bookmaker odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.2% implied probability, and the market has slightly strengthened this view in the latest update (+0.57pp), suggesting confidence in Senegal's squad quality despite their three straight World Cup defeats. Iraq's recent form is actually better with wins against Andorra and Bolivia, but the odds gap is too large to ignore. The injury asymmetry hurts Senegal's squad depth at the goalkeeper position, which introduces tactical uncertainty, yet Iraq's zero
  • - The market odds spread shows Senegal tightly clustered at 1.22–1.25, indicating strong consensus, but a clear contrarian signal exists: Senegal's recent form is poor with three straight World Cup defeats, Iraq demonstrated resilience by drawing Spain, and Senegal's goalkeeper is questionable in a neutral-venue setting. The odds actually reinforced Senegal's position since this morning (+0.57pp), suggesting the market prioritizes squad quality over form, yet the form evidence and injury concern c

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.29

Meta thinking

  • Recent competitive form trajectorySenegal has lost three consecutive matches (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA) while Iraq's last five include a draw against Spain and a win over Bolivia; investigate whether Senegal's three-match losing streak in high-stakes or competitive fixtures represents a form trough or a structural decline compared to Iraq's more varied recent output.
  • Squad injury availabilitySenegal has 1 injury observed as of 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z while Iraq reports 0 injuries; examine the impact of this asymmetry on squad depth and tactical options, noting that lineup data has not yet been captured so the specific player and position affected remain unknown.
  • Market odds implied probabilitiesThirteen odds observations are captured for this fixture; analyze the spread and central tendency of the odds to understand how the betting market prices Senegal's home-listed status against Iraq's recent resilience, and whether any contrarian signal exists between market positioning and the visible form or injury evidence.

Tokens: 2791

Perspectives

Recent competitive form trajectoryHome winThe odds consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.2%) over Iraq (7.9%), indicating the market treats Senegal's three consecutive narrow defeats against strong opposition as a form trough rather than structural decline, especially given their prior wins over Gambia, Peru and Benin; Iraq's mixed record includes an impressive Spain draw but also a 4-1 loss to Norway and defeats to Jordan and Algeria, making them less reliable; the questionable status of Senegal's goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces som65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The odds consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.2%) over Iraq (7.9%), indicating the market treats Senegal's three consecutive narrow defeats against strong opposition as a form trough rather than structural decline, especially given their prior wins over Gambia, Peru and Benin; Iraq's mixed record includes an impressive Spain draw but also a 4-1 loss to Norway and defeats to Jordan and Algeria, making them less reliable; the questionable status of Senegal's goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces som

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy favorites at 77.2% implied probability despite a three-match losing streak of close scorelines (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA), while Iraq's best recent result is a 1-1 draw with Spain but they also suffered a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway; Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is listed as questionable, adding availability uncertainty to the market's strong tilt.

Squad injury availabilityHome winThe bookmaker odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.2% implied probability, and the market has slightly strengthened this view in the latest update (+0.57pp), suggesting confidence in Senegal's squad quality despite their three straight World Cup defeats. Iraq's recent form is actually better with wins against Andorra and Bolivia, but the odds gap is too large to ignore. The injury asymmetry hurts Senegal's squad depth at the goalkeeper position, which introduces tactical uncertainty, yet Iraq's zero70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad injury availability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The bookmaker odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.2% implied probability, and the market has slightly strengthened this view in the latest update (+0.57pp), suggesting confidence in Senegal's squad quality despite their three straight World Cup defeats. Iraq's recent form is actually better with wins against Andorra and Bolivia, but the odds gap is too large to ignore. The injury asymmetry hurts Senegal's squad depth at the goalkeeper position, which introduces tactical uncertainty, yet Iraq's zero

Conclusion note

Senegal are strong 77.2% favorites over Iraq according to the latest odds consensus, but their recent World Cup form is poor with three consecutive losses while Iraq have been more competitive, and Senegal also carry a goalkeeper injury concern with Édouard Mendy listed as questionable while Iraq report no injuries.

Market odds implied probabilitiesHome winThe market odds spread shows Senegal tightly clustered at 1.22–1.25, indicating strong consensus, but a clear contrarian signal exists: Senegal's recent form is poor with three straight World Cup defeats, Iraq demonstrated resilience by drawing Spain, and Senegal's goalkeeper is questionable in a neutral-venue setting. The odds actually reinforced Senegal's position since this morning (+0.57pp), suggesting the market prioritizes squad quality over form, yet the form evidence and injury concern c62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market odds spread shows Senegal tightly clustered at 1.22–1.25, indicating strong consensus, but a clear contrarian signal exists: Senegal's recent form is poor with three straight World Cup defeats, Iraq demonstrated resilience by drawing Spain, and Senegal's goalkeeper is questionable in a neutral-venue setting. The odds actually reinforced Senegal's position since this morning (+0.57pp), suggesting the market prioritizes squad quality over form, yet the form evidence and injury concern c

Conclusion note

Senegal are priced at a dominant 77.2% implied probability (odds 1.22–1.25 across bookmakers) despite their three consecutive World Cup losses, while Iraq are at just 7.9% (odds 11–14) even after drawing Spain 1-1 in a friendly; Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is listed as questionable and the match is at a neutral Toronto venue rather than a true home ground.

Synthesis

Senegal are strong favorites over Iraq at a neutral Toronto venue, with the market pricing them at 77.2% implied probability despite three consecutive narrow World Cup defeats against Norway, France and the USA. The key tension is that all three losses were close scorelines against elite opposition, suggesting Senegal remain competitive even in poor form, while Iraq's record is genuinely mixed — a credible 1-1 draw with Spain but also a heavy 4-1 loss to Norway and defeats to Jordan and Algeria. Senegal goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is listed as questionable, which injects some squad-depth uncertainty, yet Iraq report no injuries and the odds have actually strengthened for Senegal since this morning. A likely scenario is Senegal controlling possession and grinding out a narrow win, though Iraq's resilience could keep the score tight into the second half.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on a Senegal win with confidences between 0.62 and 0.70, and the market consensus of 77.2% implied probability is reinforced by recent odds movement. Senegal's three straight losses came against strong opposition in close games, which the market treats as a form trough rather than structural decline, while Iraq's mixed results including a 4-1 defeat to Norway make them less reliable. The only meaningful counter-evidence is Senegal's questionable goalkeeper Édouard Me

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50