ERNIE 5.1 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win65%Hit
BetBet portfolio$880Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$880
PredictionConfidence: 65%
Home win

Senegal are clear favorites at Toronto Stadium, priced around 78% by the market, but their three-match losing streak (including 2-3 to Norway, 1-3 to France, and 2-3 to USA) and the doubt over goalkeeper Édouard Mendy temper confidence. Iraq also arrive in poor form after a heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway, though they have a fully fit squad with no injury concerns. The quality gap still favors Senegal, whose recent losses were all by narrow margins suggesting competitiveness rather than collapse, while Iraq's thrashing indicates deeper vulnerability. A plausible scenario is Senegal grinding out a narrow first-half lead and holding on despite defensive frailty, but the draw remains a realistic threat the market underweights.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8803 bets
Net P&L-$880
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $430
    odds 12.26Settled: loss-$430

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset posture. Senegal arrive in Toronto on a brutal three-match losing streak, conceding 3+ goals each time to Norway, France, and the USA, with a reported injury adding defensive uncertainty. Iraq are fully fit, just drew Spain 1-1, and while they lost heavily to Norway, they've shown real resilience. The market prices Senegal at ~81% implied probability but the model sees only 68% — and crucially, the model shows positive edge on Iraq (+5.8% at Pinnacle 12.260, +7.2% at best market

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Hedge posture: Already hold $430 on Iraq at 12.260 (contrarian bet with slight edge vs Pinnacle's 12.000). The model's best edge is on the draw at +0.017 vs Pinnacle's 7.000, and the script supports it — Senegal's three narrow losses to elite teams suggest they grind out tight games, while Iraq's 1-1 with Spain proves they can park the bus. A $250 draw hedge (≈3% of bankroll) covers the 16% draw probability and complements the Iraq position, creating a balanced contrarian portfolio on the two no

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Contrarian hedge with confirmed model edge. Senegal's three losses were all by one goal — they're leaking, not collapsing. Iraq got thrashed but are fully fit and will defend deep in a group-stage must-not-lose. The draw at 7.000 carries +0.077 model edge (best in the market), and the script supports a grind-it-out 0-0 or 1-1. Already holding Iraq upset + draw; adding $200 to draw strengthens the contrarian portfolio at 3.2% bankroll risk.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 65%Draw 22%Away win 13%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.7% implied probability, reflecting their quality advantage over Iraq, but recent form momentum cuts against them: Senegal have lost three consecutive competitive matches by narrow margins (all by one or two goals), while Iraq's trajectory also turned negative with a 1-4 thrashing by Norway after a draw and a win. Senegal's losses have been competitive rather than collapse-level, suggesting they remain dangerous despite the slump, whereas Iraq's heavy defeat s
  • - The injury data shows Senegal have one key availability concern in goalkeeper Mendy, which could weaken their defensive organization and reduce tactical flexibility, especially after conceding three goals in each of their last two World Cup matches; Iraq have zero observed injuries and full squad depth, giving them a marginal fitness edge. However, the odds market has already priced Senegal as overwhelming favorites at roughly 78% win probability, and Iraq's recent form includes a heavy 1-4 loss
  • - The market implies Senegal should win roughly 4 out of 5 times, yet their last three competitive matches are all losses and their #1 keeper is doubtful, creating a potential overvaluation by the odds. Iraq's form is also poor (heavy loss to Norway, mixed friendlies), so the quality gap still favors Senegal, but the 77.7% implied probability is not fully supported by the observable evidence of three straight defeats and a key injury, making the draw a realistic alternative the market underweights

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.19Log loss 0.43

Meta thinking

  • Recent competitive form momentumExamine the last five matches for each team to assess current trajectory: Senegal's three most recent competitive outings are all losses (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA) following two earlier wins, while Iraq's recent record shows a win, a draw, then a heavy loss (1-4 vs Norway), preceded by two wins. Compare how these trends might influence confidence and tactical approach heading into this group stage fixture.
  • Squad injury availability riskInvestigate the impact of the captured injury data: Senegal (home-listed) has 1 observed injury as of kickoff, while Iraq (away-listed) has 0 observed injuries. Assess how this asymmetry in squad fitness could affect lineup depth and tactical options, especially given that no lineup data was returned from the source at snapshot time.
  • Market odds implied probabilitiesAnalyze the 13 captured odds observations to understand how the betting market prices this matchup. Compare the implied win/draw/loss probabilities against the recent form and injury evidence to identify any potential misalignment between market consensus and observable squad conditions.

Tokens: 2829

Perspectives

Recent competitive form momentumHome winThe odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.7% implied probability, reflecting their quality advantage over Iraq, but recent form momentum cuts against them: Senegal have lost three consecutive competitive matches by narrow margins (all by one or two goals), while Iraq's trajectory also turned negative with a 1-4 thrashing by Norway after a draw and a win. Senegal's losses have been competitive rather than collapse-level, suggesting they remain dangerous despite the slump, whereas Iraq's heavy defeat s65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The odds heavily favor Senegal at 77.7% implied probability, reflecting their quality advantage over Iraq, but recent form momentum cuts against them: Senegal have lost three consecutive competitive matches by narrow margins (all by one or two goals), while Iraq's trajectory also turned negative with a 1-4 thrashing by Norway after a draw and a win. Senegal's losses have been competitive rather than collapse-level, suggesting they remain dangerous despite the slump, whereas Iraq's heavy defeat s

Conclusion note

Senegal are strong 77.7% favorites but arrive on a three-match losing streak (2-3 vs Norway, 1-3 vs France, 2-3 vs USA) with goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, while Iraq's most recent result was a heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway following a draw and a win, giving both teams negative form momentum heading into this Toronto fixture.

Squad injury availability riskHome winThe injury data shows Senegal have one key availability concern in goalkeeper Mendy, which could weaken their defensive organization and reduce tactical flexibility, especially after conceding three goals in each of their last two World Cup matches; Iraq have zero observed injuries and full squad depth, giving them a marginal fitness edge. However, the odds market has already priced Senegal as overwhelming favorites at roughly 78% win probability, and Iraq's recent form includes a heavy 1-4 loss68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad injury availability risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The injury data shows Senegal have one key availability concern in goalkeeper Mendy, which could weaken their defensive organization and reduce tactical flexibility, especially after conceding three goals in each of their last two World Cup matches; Iraq have zero observed injuries and full squad depth, giving them a marginal fitness edge. However, the odds market has already priced Senegal as overwhelming favorites at roughly 78% win probability, and Iraq's recent form includes a heavy 1-4 loss

Conclusion note

Senegal face Iraq at Toronto Stadium with a questionable goalkeeper Édouard Mendy as their only observed injury, while Iraq arrive with a fully fit squad, yet the bookmaker consensus still heavily favors Senegal at 77.7% implied probability (odds around 1.20–1.25) despite this fitness asymmetry.

Market odds implied probabilitiesHome winThe market implies Senegal should win roughly 4 out of 5 times, yet their last three competitive matches are all losses and their #1 keeper is doubtful, creating a potential overvaluation by the odds. Iraq's form is also poor (heavy loss to Norway, mixed friendlies), so the quality gap still favors Senegal, but the 77.7% implied probability is not fully supported by the observable evidence of three straight defeats and a key injury, making the draw a realistic alternative the market underweights68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market implies Senegal should win roughly 4 out of 5 times, yet their last three competitive matches are all losses and their #1 keeper is doubtful, creating a potential overvaluation by the odds. Iraq's form is also poor (heavy loss to Norway, mixed friendlies), so the quality gap still favors Senegal, but the 77.7% implied probability is not fully supported by the observable evidence of three straight defeats and a key injury, making the draw a realistic alternative the market underweights

Conclusion note

Senegal are priced as heavy 77.7% favorites by the market (odds 1.20–1.25) against Iraq at 7.7%, but their recent form shows three consecutive losses including World Cup defeats to Norway and France, while Iraq also lost heavily to Norway 1-4; additionally Senegal's starting goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is listed as questionable, a squad concern the market may not fully reflect.

Synthesis

Senegal are clear favorites at Toronto Stadium, priced around 78% by the market, but their three-match losing streak (including 2-3 to Norway, 1-3 to France, and 2-3 to USA) and the doubt over goalkeeper Édouard Mendy temper confidence. Iraq also arrive in poor form after a heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway, though they have a fully fit squad with no injury concerns. The quality gap still favors Senegal, whose recent losses were all by narrow margins suggesting competitiveness rather than collapse, while Iraq's thrashing indicates deeper vulnerability. A plausible scenario is Senegal grinding out a narrow first-half lead and holding on despite defensive frailty, but the draw remains a realistic threat the market underweights.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree Senegal should win with confidence in the 0.65–0.68 range, citing the quality advantage and market odds of roughly 78%, while flagging Senegal's three consecutive defeats and Mendy's questionable status as risks. Iraq's form is also poor following a 1-4 loss to Norway, but they have full squad fitness compared to Senegal's single injury concern. The recalled memory confirms Senegal lost to France in their opener (typically by 1-0 or 2-0) and Iraq were heavily beaten

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50