ERNIE 5.1 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win68%Hit
BetBet portfolio$880Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$880
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

Senegal are priced as overwhelming favorites with a 77.5% implied win probability, yet they arrive in Toronto on a three-match losing streak having conceded three or more goals in each defeat to Norway, France and the USA. Iraq, by contrast, have a full squad with no reported injuries and recently held Spain to a draw, suggesting greater stability. The decisive factor is that the betting market consensus across 14 bookmakers remains firmly on Senegal despite their poor form, and recalled matches confirm Senegal can be beaten (they lost to France) while Iraq were heavily beaten by Norway, indicating both sides have vulnerabilities. Goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status for Senegal adds defensive uncertainty, which is why confidence sits below the market implied probability. A plausible scenario is Senegal applying early pressure to offset their defensive fragility, but Iraq's resilience could keep the score tight until Senegal's superior quality tells in the second half.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8803 bets
Net P&L-$880
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $430
    odds 12.26Settled: loss-$430

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset posture. Senegal arrive in Toronto on a brutal three-match losing streak, conceding 3+ goals each time to Norway, France, and the USA, with a reported injury adding defensive uncertainty. Iraq are fully fit, just drew Spain 1-1, and while they lost heavily to Norway, they've shown real resilience. The market prices Senegal at ~81% implied probability but the model sees only 68% — and crucially, the model shows positive edge on Iraq (+5.8% at Pinnacle 12.260, +7.2% at best market

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Hedge posture: Already hold $430 on Iraq at 12.260 (contrarian bet with slight edge vs Pinnacle's 12.000). The model's best edge is on the draw at +0.017 vs Pinnacle's 7.000, and the script supports it — Senegal's three narrow losses to elite teams suggest they grind out tight games, while Iraq's 1-1 with Spain proves they can park the bus. A $250 draw hedge (≈3% of bankroll) covers the 16% draw probability and complements the Iraq position, creating a balanced contrarian portfolio on the two no

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Contrarian hedge with confirmed model edge. Senegal's three losses were all by one goal — they're leaking, not collapsing. Iraq got thrashed but are fully fit and will defend deep in a group-stage must-not-lose. The draw at 7.000 carries +0.077 model edge (best in the market), and the script supports a grind-it-out 0-0 or 1-1. Already holding Iraq upset + draw; adding $200 to draw strengthens the contrarian portfolio at 3.2% bankroll risk.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,505.1

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 18%Away win 14%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #12-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 13 captured odds observations show a heavily skewed market favoring Senegal, with implied probabilities of 77.5% win, 14.9% draw, and 7.6% Iraq win, and recent odds movement has barely shifted this picture (Senegal down 0.08pp, draw up 0.09pp). Bookmakers are tightly clustered around 1.22–1.24 for Senegal, confirming strong consensus. Despite Senegal's poor recent form of three consecutive losses, the market has not significantly adjusted against them, and the injury to goalkeeper Édouard Me
  • - The perspective highlights Senegal's three-match losing streak conceding heavily versus Iraq's mixed but more stable record including a draw with Spain, which on pure form trajectory would favor Iraq. However, the odds consensus of 77.5% for Senegal is too strong to override, reflecting likely squad-quality and tournament-context factors beyond the five-match window. The questionable status of Senegal goalkeeper Mendy adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the implied odds. The most defensi
  • - Senegal's single injury to their starting goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a notable availability concern that could affect defensive stability, yet Iraq have zero injuries and full squad strength; still, the bookmaker consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.5% win probability) and Senegal's recent wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya show they can score freely, while Iraq's form includes a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway and multiple Arab Cup defeats, making Senegal the most defensible pick desp

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.15Log loss 0.39

Meta thinking

  • Market odds pricingExamine the 13 captured odds observations to identify how the betting market currently prices Senegal versus Iraq, looking for any significant skew or balanced pricing that reflects market expectations before lineups are confirmed.
  • Recent form trajectoryCompare the 5 visible recent matches for each team: Senegal shows 2 wins and 3 losses with a current 3-match losing streak conceding 3+ goals each time, while Iraq shows 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses with a more varied recent pattern including a draw against Spain. Assess which form trend carries more predictive weight for this group stage fixture.
  • Injury availability impactReview the captured injury data showing Senegal with 1 observed injury and Iraq with 0 observed injuries, considering how this squad availability difference might affect lineup strength and tactical options despite full lineups not yet being captured.

Tokens: 3334

Perspectives

Market odds pricingHome winThe 13 captured odds observations show a heavily skewed market favoring Senegal, with implied probabilities of 77.5% win, 14.9% draw, and 7.6% Iraq win, and recent odds movement has barely shifted this picture (Senegal down 0.08pp, draw up 0.09pp). Bookmakers are tightly clustered around 1.22–1.24 for Senegal, confirming strong consensus. Despite Senegal's poor recent form of three consecutive losses, the market has not significantly adjusted against them, and the injury to goalkeeper Édouard Me72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds pricing

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The 13 captured odds observations show a heavily skewed market favoring Senegal, with implied probabilities of 77.5% win, 14.9% draw, and 7.6% Iraq win, and recent odds movement has barely shifted this picture (Senegal down 0.08pp, draw up 0.09pp). Bookmakers are tightly clustered around 1.22–1.24 for Senegal, confirming strong consensus. Despite Senegal's poor recent form of three consecutive losses, the market has not significantly adjusted against them, and the injury to goalkeeper Édouard Me

Conclusion note

Senegal are priced as overwhelming favorites by the betting market with a consensus implied win probability of 77.5% across 14 bookmaker samples, with odds ranging from 1.22 to 1.24, while Iraq are priced at 11.5–13.75 implying only 7.6% chance of victory; however, Senegal arrive on a three-match losing streak including defeats to Norway, France and USA, which slightly tempers the market's strong skew.

Recent form trajectoryHome winThe perspective highlights Senegal's three-match losing streak conceding heavily versus Iraq's mixed but more stable record including a draw with Spain, which on pure form trajectory would favor Iraq. However, the odds consensus of 77.5% for Senegal is too strong to override, reflecting likely squad-quality and tournament-context factors beyond the five-match window. The questionable status of Senegal goalkeeper Mendy adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the implied odds. The most defensi60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The perspective highlights Senegal's three-match losing streak conceding heavily versus Iraq's mixed but more stable record including a draw with Spain, which on pure form trajectory would favor Iraq. However, the odds consensus of 77.5% for Senegal is too strong to override, reflecting likely squad-quality and tournament-context factors beyond the five-match window. The questionable status of Senegal goalkeeper Mendy adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the implied odds. The most defensi

Conclusion note

Senegal face Iraq in Toronto with odds heavily favoring Senegal at 77.5% implied probability, but their recent form is alarming: three consecutive losses conceding three or more goals each time, including defeats to Norway, France and USA. Iraq's last five matches show a more balanced pattern with two wins, a draw against Spain and two losses, suggesting greater stability, yet the market still prices Senegal as overwhelming favorites despite goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being listed as questionable.

Injury availability impactHome winSenegal's single injury to their starting goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a notable availability concern that could affect defensive stability, yet Iraq have zero injuries and full squad strength; still, the bookmaker consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.5% win probability) and Senegal's recent wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya show they can score freely, while Iraq's form includes a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway and multiple Arab Cup defeats, making Senegal the most defensible pick desp65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury availability impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Senegal's single injury to their starting goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a notable availability concern that could affect defensive stability, yet Iraq have zero injuries and full squad strength; still, the bookmaker consensus heavily favors Senegal (77.5% win probability) and Senegal's recent wins over Gambia, Peru, Benin, Botswana, and Kenya show they can score freely, while Iraq's form includes a heavy 1-4 loss to Norway and multiple Arab Cup defeats, making Senegal the most defensible pick desp

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavy favorites at 77.5% implied probability despite goalkeeper Édouard Mendy being listed as questionable with an injury, while Iraq have no reported injuries and a full squad available; however, the odds consensus and recent form both still strongly favor Senegal, with Iraq's only notable result being a 1-1 draw against Spain.

Synthesis

Senegal are priced as overwhelming favorites with a 77.5% implied win probability, yet they arrive in Toronto on a three-match losing streak having conceded three or more goals in each defeat to Norway, France and the USA. Iraq, by contrast, have a full squad with no reported injuries and recently held Spain to a draw, suggesting greater stability. The decisive factor is that the betting market consensus across 14 bookmakers remains firmly on Senegal despite their poor form, and recalled matches confirm Senegal can be beaten (they lost to France) while Iraq were heavily beaten by Norway, indicating both sides have vulnerabilities. Goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status for Senegal adds defensive uncertainty, which is why confidence sits below the market implied probability. A plausible scenario is Senegal applying early pressure to offset their defensive fragility, but Iraq's resilience could keep the score tight until Senegal's superior quality tells in the second half.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives select Senegal with confidence ranging from 0.60 to 0.72, acknowledging the market's 77.5% implied probability but tempering it due to Senegal's three-game losing streak and Mendy's injury concern. Iraq's form is more balanced with a draw against Spain and no injuries, yet the perspectives still favor Senegal because of squad-quality advantages and historical scoring record. Recalled match reflections confirm Senegal lost to France and Iraq lost heavily to Norway, validati

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: France win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: France win 67.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Iraq win 10.0%; draw 18.0%; Norway win 72.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-3 Norway, Iraq 1-1 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50