DeepSeek V4 Pro · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win78%Hit
BetBet portfolio$870Bet portfolio
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$250
PredictionConfidence: 78%
Home win

Senegal are heavily favored by the betting market, with an implied win probability around 77%, and their recent form against strong opposition underscores their quality advantage over Iraq. Iraq's only notable result was a draw against Spain, but they were comprehensively beaten by Norway—a side Senegal competed closely with—and have otherwise labored against lower-tier teams. The potential absence of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a minor dent to Senegal's defensive strength, yet the overall squad quality gap is large enough that a Senegal victory remains by far the most likely outcome. All available analytical perspectives unanimously back a Senegal win, with the main uncertainty centered on Mendy's fitness and a small chance of a low‑scoring stalemate. On balance, a controlled Senegal victory is expected, most likely by a two‑goal margin or a narrow 1‑0, though a more emphatic 3‑0 scoreline is also plausible.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8703 bets
Net P&L-$250
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $500
    odds 1.24Settled: win+$120

    Betting rationale：Posture: hedge/portfolio protection. Match script: Senegal are on a three-match losing streak but against elite opposition (France, Norway, USA); they now face a must-win group game against an Iraq side that conceded four to Norway. Senegal’s attacking quality and tournament urgency should finally translate into a victory, and the model gives them a 75% win probability. The existing draw position ($370 across two tickets) already covers a cagey stalemate, but leaves the most likely outcome—a Sen

    Payout: $620 · Balance after: $11,615.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Adding to the existing draw position. Posture: draw-trap protection with a value tilt. Senegal's recent defensive record is concerning—they've conceded three goals in each of their last three matches against quality opponents (France, Norway, USA). Iraq, meanwhile, showed they can frustrate superior sides by holding Spain to a 1-1 draw. At 7.00, the draw price overcompensates for a scenario where Senegal's attack labours against a compact Iraqi block and their own backline remains vulnerable. Th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,995.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $170
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw trap / value contrarian. Match script: Senegal enter as favourites but are on a three-match losing run against top sides (France, Norway, USA) and carry a goalkeeper injury concern. Iraq were thrashed by Norway yet recently held Spain to an away draw. Both sides sit on zero points after two group matches, so this is effectively a dead rubber where pressure is off and motivation is uncertain — a classic setting for a disjointed, low-stakes affair that can easily drift into a stalema

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,995.1

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 78%Draw 15%Away win 7%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus assigns Senegal roughly a 77% win probability with minimal inter-bookmaker disagreement, reflecting a clear market view. Senegal’s recent form supports that view—they dispatch weaker teams convincingly—while Iraq’s results, aside from a friendly draw with Spain, are modest. The questionable availability of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces slight uncertainty but does not shift the fundamental imbalance, so a Senegal victory is the most defensible outcome.
  • - Both teams faced Norway in their last five: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, a clear performance gap against a shared opponent. Senegal's three recent losses came against top-20 sides France, Norway and the USA, all away, whereas Iraq's only notable result was an outlier draw at Spain; otherwise Iraq edged Andorra 1-0 and lost to Jordan. The odds market assigns Senegal a 77.2% implied win probability, and the form-versus-opponent-quality comparison strongly supports that assess
  • - The odds consensus gives Senegal a dominant 77.2% implied win probability, and the market has drifted slightly further toward Senegal in the latest updates. Senegal's injury concern is limited to goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, whose potential absence is a defensive setback but unlikely to erase the wide quality gap against Iraq. Senegal's three consecutive defeats came against high-caliber opponents, while Iraq lack a comparable résumé against strong teams. The injury introduces some uncertainty and

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: France win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.08Log loss 0.25

Meta thinking

  • Pre-Match Market Odds AnalysisReview the 13 captured pre-match odds to assess market sentiment for Senegal vs Iraq. Identify any significant differences between bookmakers, implied probabilities for a home win, draw, or away win, and check whether the odds align with recent form.
  • Recent Form and Opponent QualityCompare the last five matches for each team. Senegal lost to Norway, France, and USA, but beat Gambia and Peru. Iraq lost to Norway, drew with Spain, and won against Andorra and Bolivia. Analyze the strength of opponents and the pattern of results to gauge current team momentum.
  • Squad Readiness and Injury ConcernSenegal carries one injury according to latest observations. Evaluate how this absence could affect their starting lineup or tactical flexibility, given that lineups have not yet been published.

Tokens: 3386

Perspectives

Pre-Match Market Odds AnalysisHome winThe odds consensus assigns Senegal roughly a 77% win probability with minimal inter-bookmaker disagreement, reflecting a clear market view. Senegal’s recent form supports that view—they dispatch weaker teams convincingly—while Iraq’s results, aside from a friendly draw with Spain, are modest. The questionable availability of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces slight uncertainty but does not shift the fundamental imbalance, so a Senegal victory is the most defensible outcome.80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre-Match Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The odds consensus assigns Senegal roughly a 77% win probability with minimal inter-bookmaker disagreement, reflecting a clear market view. Senegal’s recent form supports that view—they dispatch weaker teams convincingly—while Iraq’s results, aside from a friendly draw with Spain, are modest. The questionable availability of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy introduces slight uncertainty but does not shift the fundamental imbalance, so a Senegal victory is the most defensible outcome.

Conclusion note

Across 13 captured bookmaker odds, Senegal are priced as overwhelming favorites with a consensus implied probability of 77.2% for a home win, versus 14.9% for the draw and only 7.9% for an Iraq victory. The tight clustering of odds—10bet 1.24, William Hill 1.22, bet365 1.22, Marathonbet 1.24—shows strong agreement, while Marathonbet’s slightly longer draw (6.75) and Iraq win (14) indicate some bookmakers see even less chance of an upset. This market sentiment aligns with recent form: Senegal have lost only to strong sides (France, Norway, Brazil) and have comfortably beaten weaker opponents, whereas Iraq were beaten 4-1 by Norway and have mostly edged past lower-ranked Asian teams, making a Senegal win the logical expectation.

Recent Form and Opponent QualityHome winBoth teams faced Norway in their last five: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, a clear performance gap against a shared opponent. Senegal's three recent losses came against top-20 sides France, Norway and the USA, all away, whereas Iraq's only notable result was an outlier draw at Spain; otherwise Iraq edged Andorra 1-0 and lost to Jordan. The odds market assigns Senegal a 77.2% implied win probability, and the form-versus-opponent-quality comparison strongly supports that assess80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Opponent Quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check detailed weather

    #12

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  14. Recent form and opponent quality analysis for Senegal vs Iraq: Common opponent (Norway): Senegal lost 2-3 away, while Iraq lost 1-4 at home. Senegal's performance was notably stronger. Senegal's last five opponents: Norway (#15-20), France (#2-3), USA (#15-20), Gambia (#120+), Peru (#30-40). Three losses against strong sides all away, two comfortable home wins against weaker teams. Iraq's last five opponents: Norway (#15-20), Spain (#3-5), Andorra (#150+), Bolivia (#80+ away from altitude), Jord

  15. Both teams faced Norway in their last five: Senegal lost 2-3 away while Iraq lost 1-4 at home, a clear performance gap against a shared opponent. Senegal's three recent losses came against top-20 sides France, Norway and the USA, all away, whereas Iraq's only notable result was an outlier draw at Spain; otherwise Iraq edged Andorra 1-0 and lost to Jordan. The odds market assigns Senegal a 77.2% implied win probability, and the form-versus-opponent-quality comparison strongly supports that assess

Conclusion note

Senegal's recent form reflects a tougher schedule: narrow away defeats to Norway (2-3), France (1-3) and the USA (2-3), with comfortable home wins over Gambia (3-1) and Peru (2-0). Iraq lost heavily at home to the same Norway side (1-4), managed only a 1-0 win over minnows Andorra, and fell 0-1 to Jordan. The common-opponent comparison and the gulf in opponent quality across the last five matches point firmly toward Senegal, though goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable status and Iraq's surprise 1-1 draw away to Spain keep confidence from being higher.

Squad Readiness and Injury ConcernHome winThe odds consensus gives Senegal a dominant 77.2% implied win probability, and the market has drifted slightly further toward Senegal in the latest updates. Senegal's injury concern is limited to goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, whose potential absence is a defensive setback but unlikely to erase the wide quality gap against Iraq. Senegal's three consecutive defeats came against high-caliber opponents, while Iraq lack a comparable résumé against strong teams. The injury introduces some uncertainty and78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad Readiness and Injury Concern

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-25T19:06:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T07:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check availability facts

    #10

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  15. Check team process facts

    #14

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  16. Check team process facts

    #15

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  17. Check stadium history

    #16

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. match records: no items.

  18. Check head-to-head

    #17

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  19. Check detailed weather

    #18

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  20. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #19

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.2%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.57pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 11; bet365 side A 1.25 / draw 6.25 / side B 11 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.9, side B 11; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 11; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.24, draw 6.75, side B 14. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  21. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  22. The odds consensus gives Senegal a dominant 77.2% implied win probability, and the market has drifted slightly further toward Senegal in the latest updates. Senegal's injury concern is limited to goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, whose potential absence is a defensive setback but unlikely to erase the wide quality gap against Iraq. Senegal's three consecutive defeats came against high-caliber opponents, while Iraq lack a comparable résumé against strong teams. The injury introduces some uncertainty and

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavily backed by bookmakers with an implied win probability around 77%, despite carrying a questionable tag on first-choice goalkeeper Édouard Mendy. Senegal's recent three-match losing streak came against strong opponents (France, Norway, USA), while Iraq's only World Cup outing was a 4-1 defeat to Norway and their recent wins have come against lower-ranked sides. Even if Mendy is unavailable, Senegal's outfield quality should prove decisive against an Iraq side that has struggled to compete with top-tier opposition.

Synthesis

Senegal are heavily favored by the betting market, with an implied win probability around 77%, and their recent form against strong opposition underscores their quality advantage over Iraq. Iraq's only notable result was a draw against Spain, but they were comprehensively beaten by Norway—a side Senegal competed closely with—and have otherwise labored against lower-tier teams. The potential absence of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is a minor dent to Senegal's defensive strength, yet the overall squad quality gap is large enough that a Senegal victory remains by far the most likely outcome. All available analytical perspectives unanimously back a Senegal win, with the main uncertainty centered on Mendy's fitness and a small chance of a low‑scoring stalemate. On balance, a controlled Senegal victory is expected, most likely by a two‑goal margin or a narrow 1‑0, though a more emphatic 3‑0 scoreline is also plausible.

Reasoning summary: All three supplied perspectives pick a Senegal victory, with confidence ranging from 0.78 to 0.80. Bookmaker odds assign Senegal a 77% win probability, while common‑opponent form (both faced Norway) and the overall quality of recent opponents strongly favor Senegal. The main source of uncertainty is the questionable status of first‑choice goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, which slightly reduces confidence but does not alter the expected winner. The final prediction therefore gives Senegal a 0.78 chance

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: France win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: France win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Senegal win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50