DeepSeek V4 Flash · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win73%Hit
BetDraw$350Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$350
PredictionConfidence: 73%
Home win

Senegal enter this must-win group-stage match as clear favourites despite a four-match losing streak and doubts over goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's fitness. The betting market shows a settled 77.7% win probability from a 14-bookmaker consensus, and recent form comparisons — particularly Senegal's competitive 2-3 loss to Norway versus Iraq's 1-4 defeat — underline a significant quality gap. Iraq have a fully fit squad and have shown resilience in a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their overall level against stronger teams is modest. While the disciplinary absence of Mendy could disrupt Senegal's defensive organisation, the offensive firepower and pedigree advantage make a Senegal win the most probable outcome.

Bet
Draw$3503 bets
Net P&L-$350
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Value on draw at 6.810 Pinnacle: model probability 20% vs implied 14.7%, edge +5.3%. Senegal's three-match losing streak and Mendy's absence create defensive uncertainty; Iraq showed resilience drawing with Spain. With both teams likely eliminated, a cautious stalemate is plausible. Small value bet.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw/trap protection with value. Senegal arrive winless in three, goalkeeper Mendy questionable, and Iraq showed resilience holding Spain. The model gives a +3.7% edge on the draw at 7.00 (Pinnacle), which improves on the existing draw position at 6.81. A second draw ticket increases the potential payoff if Senegal fail to break down a compact Iraq side, without overexposing the bankroll.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $50
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Model assigns 18% probability to a 1-0 scoreline, while Pinnacle's execution price of 8.0 implies just 12.5%, offering a clear value edge. Senegal are heavy favourites but face a fully fit Iraq side that drew with Spain and will likely sit compact. With goalkeeper Mendy's fitness a doubt, a tight, low-scoring Senegal win is the most probable script. This small correct-score bet complements the existing draw cover and targets the highest-conviction score outcome at an attractive price.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 73%Draw 18%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Market odds are the primary evidence: 13 observations across 14 bookmakers show Senegal at 77.7% implied probability with flat movement, a clear consensus. Both teams are on 0 points in Group I and need a win, but Senegal face a lower-ranked opponent and have strong World Cup pedigree. The recent form (four consecutive losses against France, Norway, USA and Brazil) and Mendy's questionable status moderate confidence, but the odds still point decisively to a Senegal win.
  • - Direct opponent comparison (Norway) gives Senegal a clear edge — a 2-3 loss versus Iraq's 1-4 defeat. Senegal's other recent results include competitive scorelines against top sides France and USA, plus convincing friendly wins over Peru and Gambia. Iraq's best recent result is a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their other matches show narrower margins against weaker teams. The 77.7% consensus win probability reflects this gap, and group-stage pressure (both sides need points) strengthens the case for
  • - The betting market strongly backs Senegal (representative odds as short as 1.2) even after two World Cup losses and with Mendy's availability in doubt, while Iraq is priced as a heavy underdog at 9.4-13. The documented injury to Senegal's first-choice goalkeeper is a tangible concern, yet the market has not adjusted odds downward, suggesting the overall squad quality difference is deemed decisive. With both teams winless in Group I, Senegal's superior individual quality and the odds consensus po

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.11Log loss 0.31

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsExamine the 13 captured odds observations to derive implied probabilities for each outcome and gauge market consensus, without assuming any side is favored.
  • Recent form comparisonCompare the last five matches of Senegal and Iraq, accounting for opponent strength and competition context, to assess performance trends.
  • Injury impact assessmentEvaluate how Senegal's one documented injury might affect squad strength and tactical options compared to Iraq's full injury-free squad.

Tokens: 3204

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winMarket odds are the primary evidence: 13 observations across 14 bookmakers show Senegal at 77.7% implied probability with flat movement, a clear consensus. Both teams are on 0 points in Group I and need a win, but Senegal face a lower-ranked opponent and have strong World Cup pedigree. The recent form (four consecutive losses against France, Norway, USA and Brazil) and Mendy's questionable status moderate confidence, but the odds still point decisively to a Senegal win.68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check match details

    #12

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check team process facts

    #14

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  16. Check stadium history

    #15

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. match records: no items.

  17. Market odds perspective: 13 observations show Senegal implied 77.7%, draw 14.5%, Iraq 7.7% with flat movement. Senegal heavy favourite despite 4-match losing streak and questionable GK Mendy. Group I must-win for both sides. Odds consensus strongly favours Senegal win.

  18. Market odds are the primary evidence: 13 observations across 14 bookmakers show Senegal at 77.7% implied probability with flat movement, a clear consensus. Both teams are on 0 points in Group I and need a win, but Senegal face a lower-ranked opponent and have strong World Cup pedigree. The recent form (four consecutive losses against France, Norway, USA and Brazil) and Mendy's questionable status moderate confidence, but the odds still point decisively to a Senegal win.

Conclusion note

The betting market strongly favours Senegal, with 13 captured odds observations giving them an implied win probability of 77.7% compared to just 7.7% for Iraq, and representative prices ranging from 1.20 to 1.25 across bookmakers. This consensus has not shifted across update windows, suggesting a settled view that Senegal's superior quality outweighs their four-match losing streak and the questionable availability of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy.

Recent form comparisonHome winDirect opponent comparison (Norway) gives Senegal a clear edge — a 2-3 loss versus Iraq's 1-4 defeat. Senegal's other recent results include competitive scorelines against top sides France and USA, plus convincing friendly wins over Peru and Gambia. Iraq's best recent result is a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their other matches show narrower margins against weaker teams. The 77.7% consensus win probability reflects this gap, and group-stage pressure (both sides need points) strengthens the case for80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Recent form comparison: Both teams entered the World Cup with 0 points — Senegal from two losses (Norway 2-3, France 1-3) and Iraq from one loss (Norway 1-4). Direct opponent comparison (both faced Norway) shows Senegal was far more competitive, losing 2-3 while Iraq lost 1-4. Senegal's other results include a competitive 2-3 loss to USA and wins over Peru (2-0) and Gambia (3-1). Iraq's best recent result is a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their wins came against weaker opposition (Andorra, Bolivia).

  14. Direct opponent comparison (Norway) gives Senegal a clear edge — a 2-3 loss versus Iraq's 1-4 defeat. Senegal's other recent results include competitive scorelines against top sides France and USA, plus convincing friendly wins over Peru and Gambia. Iraq's best recent result is a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their other matches show narrower margins against weaker teams. The 77.7% consensus win probability reflects this gap, and group-stage pressure (both sides need points) strengthens the case for

Conclusion note

Senegal has shown markedly better recent form against stronger opposition than Iraq. Both teams faced Norway in the group; Senegal lost 2-3 in a competitive performance while Iraq lost 1-4. Senegal also pushed France to 1-3 and lost 2-3 to USA, whereas Iraq's wins came against Andorra and Bolivia with a heavy loss to Norway. The odds market heavily favours Senegal at 77.7% implied win probability, consistent with the form comparison.

Injury impact assessmentHome winThe betting market strongly backs Senegal (representative odds as short as 1.2) even after two World Cup losses and with Mendy's availability in doubt, while Iraq is priced as a heavy underdog at 9.4-13. The documented injury to Senegal's first-choice goalkeeper is a tangible concern, yet the market has not adjusted odds downward, suggesting the overall squad quality difference is deemed decisive. With both teams winless in Group I, Senegal's superior individual quality and the odds consensus po70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury impact assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.7%, draw 14.5%, side B win 7.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:06:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.23, draw 6.9, side B 14.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 51; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 29, 0-2 71; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 19, 0-1 34, 0-2 67.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Assessing injury impact for Senegal vs Iraq: Senegal's goalkeeper É. Mendy is questionable while Iraq has a fully fit squad. Despite Senegal's 0-2 World Cup start and the goalkeeping uncertainty, the betting market assigns a 77.7% win probability to Senegal vs just 7.7% for Iraq, indicating the quality gap is considered substantial. The injury is noted but not seen as decisive by the market.

  16. The betting market strongly backs Senegal (representative odds as short as 1.2) even after two World Cup losses and with Mendy's availability in doubt, while Iraq is priced as a heavy underdog at 9.4-13. The documented injury to Senegal's first-choice goalkeeper is a tangible concern, yet the market has not adjusted odds downward, suggesting the overall squad quality difference is deemed decisive. With both teams winless in Group I, Senegal's superior individual quality and the odds consensus po

Conclusion note

Senegal is a heavy favourite over Iraq with 77.7% implied win probability from a 14-bookmaker consensus, reflecting a large perceived quality gap despite Senegal's 0-2 World Cup start and the questionable status of goalkeeper É. Mendy. Iraq's full-injury-free squad and Senegal's recent three-match losing run introduce some uncertainty, but the odds overwhelmingly favour Senegal to secure their first group-stage win in Toronto.

Synthesis

Senegal enter this must-win group-stage match as clear favourites despite a four-match losing streak and doubts over goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's fitness. The betting market shows a settled 77.7% win probability from a 14-bookmaker consensus, and recent form comparisons — particularly Senegal's competitive 2-3 loss to Norway versus Iraq's 1-4 defeat — underline a significant quality gap. Iraq have a fully fit squad and have shown resilience in a 1-1 draw with Spain, but their overall level against stronger teams is modest. While the disciplinary absence of Mendy could disrupt Senegal's defensive organisation, the offensive firepower and pedigree advantage make a Senegal win the most probable outcome.

Reasoning summary: All three perspective summaries favour Senegal, citing dominant market odds, a clear form advantage, and the greater strength of Senegal's opponents. The injury impact assessment notes Mendy's questioned availability but points out that the market has not adjusted odds downward, suggesting the overall squad quality is decisive. With both teams on zero points and needing a win, Senegal's superior individual quality and the odds consensus provide the primary evidence for the prediction.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50