DeepSeek V4 Flash · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win70%Hit
BetDraw$350Reverse
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L-$350
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

All three analytical perspectives favor Senegal to win this Group I match, driven by a settled market showing a 77.5% implied probability and a clear squad quality advantage over Iraq. Senegal's competitive performances against top sides and Iraq's heavy defeat to a common opponent (Norway 1-4) reinforce the gap. However, Senegal enters on a three-match losing streak and first-choice goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is questionable, which introduces some defensive uncertainty and tempers confidence slightly below the market level. The consensus is strong enough to justify a Senegal victory as the most likely outcome.

Bet
Draw$3503 bets
Net P&L-$350
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 6.81Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Value on draw at 6.810 Pinnacle: model probability 20% vs implied 14.7%, edge +5.3%. Senegal's three-match losing streak and Mendy's absence create defensive uncertainty; Iraq showed resilience drawing with Spain. With both teams likely eliminated, a cautious stalemate is plausible. Small value bet.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 7.00Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw/trap protection with value. Senegal arrive winless in three, goalkeeper Mendy questionable, and Iraq showed resilience holding Spain. The model gives a +3.7% edge on the draw at 7.00 (Pinnacle), which improves on the existing draw position at 6.81. A second draw ticket increases the potential payoff if Senegal fail to break down a compact Iraq side, without overexposing the bankroll.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $50
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Model assigns 18% probability to a 1-0 scoreline, while Pinnacle's execution price of 8.0 implies just 12.5%, offering a clear value edge. Senegal are heavy favourites but face a fully fit Iraq side that drew with Spain and will likely sit compact. With goalkeeper Mendy's fitness a doubt, a tight, low-scoring Senegal win is the most probable script. This small correct-score bet complements the existing draw cover and targets the highest-conviction score outcome at an attractive price.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,075.55

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 20%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - All sampled bookmakers quote Senegal between 1.22 and 1.24, with the draw at 5.7-6.6 and Iraq at 11.5-13.75; consensus movement over the final hours is less than 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a settled market. Senegal's superior squad quality and more competitive tournament performances underpin the pricing, though their two group-stage losses and goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable availability introduce some risk that tempers confidence slightly below the raw implied probability.
  • - The odds consensus strongly favors Senegal despite their three-match losing streak, reflecting a significant perceived quality gap. Senegal's defeats came against strong opposition (France, Norway, USA) while Iraq's draw with Spain is their standout result. However, Senegal's World Cup performances have been competitive (scored in both losses), and Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to common opponent Norway suggests a class difference. The recent form evidence is mixed and weakens confidence, but the mark
  • - The injury to Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy injects some defensive uncertainty, but the odds (77.5% win probability) show the market remains confident in a Senegal victory, and the flat movement indicates the injury was already priced in. Senegal's poor recent form (three consecutive losses, conceding three goals each time) and Iraq's desperation for points reduce confidence slightly below the market level, but the substantial squad quality gap still favours Senegal as the more likely winner.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.14Log loss 0.36

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsExamine the 13 captured odds observations to derive implied probabilities and assess market expectations for the match outcome, focusing on any discrepancies or consensus signals.
  • Recent form analysisEvaluate the recent match records of Senegal and Iraq across competitions, including World Cup group matches and friendlies, to identify performance trends, goal differentials, and the quality of opposition.
  • Injury risk assessmentInvestigate the reported injury count (1 for Senegal, 0 for Iraq) and consider how a potential absence could impact team lineup, tactical setup, and overall performance in the match.

Tokens: 2986

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winAll sampled bookmakers quote Senegal between 1.22 and 1.24, with the draw at 5.7-6.6 and Iraq at 11.5-13.75; consensus movement over the final hours is less than 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a settled market. Senegal's superior squad quality and more competitive tournament performances underpin the pricing, though their two group-stage losses and goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable availability introduce some risk that tempers confidence slightly below the raw implied probability.74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #10

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check team process facts

    #14

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  16. Check detailed weather

    #15

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  17. Check match details

    #16

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  18. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  19. All sampled bookmakers quote Senegal between 1.22 and 1.24, with the draw at 5.7-6.6 and Iraq at 11.5-13.75; consensus movement over the final hours is less than 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a settled market. Senegal's superior squad quality and more competitive tournament performances underpin the pricing, though their two group-stage losses and goalkeeper Édouard Mendy's questionable availability introduce some risk that tempers confidence slightly below the raw implied probability.

Conclusion note

The market heavily favors Senegal with a consensus implied probability of 77.5% across 14 bookmaker samples, while Iraq is priced at just 7.6% and the draw at 14.9%. Senegal's narrow losses to Norway (2-3) and France (1-3) are seen as more competitive than Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to Norway, and the odds have shown negligible movement, indicating strong market conviction in a Senegal victory.

Recent form analysisHome winThe odds consensus strongly favors Senegal despite their three-match losing streak, reflecting a significant perceived quality gap. Senegal's defeats came against strong opposition (France, Norway, USA) while Iraq's draw with Spain is their standout result. However, Senegal's World Cup performances have been competitive (scored in both losses), and Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to common opponent Norway suggests a class difference. The recent form evidence is mixed and weakens confidence, but the mark58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Recall previous predictions

    #12

    Previous prediction records: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. previous predictions: no items.

  14. Recent form analysis for Senegal vs Iraq (World Cup Group I): Senegal has lost 3 straight (USA, France, Norway) and both World Cup matches, while Iraq drew 1-1 with Spain in a friendly but lost 1-4 to Norway in their only World Cup game. Odds strongly favor Senegal (77.5% implied). Prediction: Senegal win with moderate confidence.

  15. The odds consensus strongly favors Senegal despite their three-match losing streak, reflecting a significant perceived quality gap. Senegal's defeats came against strong opposition (France, Norway, USA) while Iraq's draw with Spain is their standout result. However, Senegal's World Cup performances have been competitive (scored in both losses), and Iraq's heavy 1-4 defeat to common opponent Norway suggests a class difference. The recent form evidence is mixed and weakens confidence, but the mark

Conclusion note

Senegal are heavily favored by the betting market at 77.5% implied win probability for this Group I clash, but their recent form is poor with three straight losses (USA, France, Norway) including both World Cup matches. Iraq have shown resilience with a 1-1 draw away to Spain in a recent friendly, though they lost 1-4 to Norway in their only group game. Both sides are desperate for points after losing all their World Cup matches so far.

Injury risk assessmentHome winThe injury to Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy injects some defensive uncertainty, but the odds (77.5% win probability) show the market remains confident in a Senegal victory, and the flat movement indicates the injury was already priced in. Senegal's poor recent form (three consecutive losses, conceding three goals each time) and Iraq's desperation for points reduce confidence slightly below the market level, but the substantial squad quality gap still favours Senegal as the more likely winner.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury risk assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Senegal vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 3 completed matches and 3 remaining. Current group table: Norway 6 pts/2 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/2 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-26 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check match details

    #14

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  16. Injury risk assessment: Senegal's first-choice goalkeeper É. Mendy is listed as questionable, while Iraq has no injury concerns. Despite the potential absence, odds heavily favour Senegal (77.5% implied probability), suggesting the market has priced in the Mendy situation with minimal worry. Senegal's recent heavy conceding (3 goals in each of the last three matches) indicates broader defensive problems beyond the keeper, while Iraq's sole World Cup match ended in a 4-1 loss to Norway. The sizea

  17. The injury to Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy injects some defensive uncertainty, but the odds (77.5% win probability) show the market remains confident in a Senegal victory, and the flat movement indicates the injury was already priced in. Senegal's poor recent form (three consecutive losses, conceding three goals each time) and Iraq's desperation for points reduce confidence slightly below the market level, but the substantial squad quality gap still favours Senegal as the more likely winner.

Conclusion note

Senegal enter this must-win group stage match as heavy favourites with a 77.5% implied win probability from the odds consensus, reflecting a clear quality advantage over Iraq despite the potential absence of first-choice goalkeeper É. Mendy (listed as questionable). Iraq have no injury concerns but lost their only World Cup match 4-1 to Norway, while Senegal have struggled defensively in recent losses, yet the market has already accounted for the Mendy situation with minimal odds movement.

Synthesis

All three analytical perspectives favor Senegal to win this Group I match, driven by a settled market showing a 77.5% implied probability and a clear squad quality advantage over Iraq. Senegal's competitive performances against top sides and Iraq's heavy defeat to a common opponent (Norway 1-4) reinforce the gap. However, Senegal enters on a three-match losing streak and first-choice goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is questionable, which introduces some defensive uncertainty and tempers confidence slightly below the market level. The consensus is strong enough to justify a Senegal victory as the most likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: The market odds, recent form comparison, and injury risk assessment all side with Senegal. The market heavily favors Senegal with negligible movement, indicating settled conviction. Senegal's losses came against elite opposition, while Iraq lost heavily to Norway. The potential absence of Mendy is a minor concern but priced in. The evidence points to a Senegal win, though not with the highest confidence.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50