Claude Opus 4.8 · Senegal vs Iraq

SenegalvsIraq
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win74%Hit
BetHome win$400Aligned
Post-match result5-0
Net P&L+$18.2
PredictionConfidence: 74%
Home win

Senegal are strong favorites over Iraq at Toronto Stadium, with all sampled bookmakers clustering a Senegal win near 1.22-1.24 (about 77.5% implied) and showing no real movement, reflecting a clear quality gap despite Senegal's three recent losses to tougher opponents. Iraq's mixed form, including a 1-4 defeat to Norway, reinforces the lean toward Senegal. The main caveats are goalkeeper Edouard Mendy's questionable availability and the missing lineup and head-to-head detail, so confidence sits a touch below the market price; as a hypothesis, Senegal may need a goal before the break to settle a potentially cagey opening.

Bet
Home win$4002 bets
Net P&L+$18.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $340
    odds 1.23Settled: win+$78.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Match script: clear quality gap, all books cluster Senegal near 1.22-1.24 (~77.5% implied), and the model agrees at 0.74. Iraq's 1-4 loss to Norway and mixed form reinforce the lean; Senegal's recent defeats came against France and Norway-tier sides, not group peers like Iraq. The negative price-edge on the favorite (-0.073) means this is value-thin, so I size conservatively as a low-juice conviction play rather than chasing the long-shot edge on Iraq, which I don't

    Payout: $418.2 · Balance after: $9,063.05

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $60
    odds 6.40Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction expressed via a small correct-score satellite. I already hold side_a_win at 1.23; the executable Senegal win price (1.24) carries negative model edge, so I won't add more low-value 1x2 stake. The match script is clear: Senegal as strong home favorites (model 74%, market ~77%) controlling possession against an Iraq side that conceded 1-4 to Norway, with a likely first-half breakthrough and a clean defensive job. The model's top score is 2-0 (0.180), aligning with Sene

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,063.05

Post-match result5-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 74%Draw 16%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market is tightly and consistently priced toward Senegal, with the latest consensus implied probabilities at 77.5% home win, 14.9% draw and only 7.6% for Iraq, and all sampled bookmakers (10bet, William Hill, bet365, marathonbet) clustering Senegal near 1.22-1.24 with no meaningful disagreement or movement across the ten update points. Senegal lost their two recent World Cup group games to Norway and France, but those were against strong opposition, while Iraq were beaten 1-4 by Norway, supp
  • - The bookmaker consensus prices Senegal as heavy favorites (around 77.5% implied probability) with stable, tightly-grouped odds across 10bet, William Hill and bet365, signalling a clear quality gap over Iraq despite Senegal's recent three losses to stronger sides like Norway, France and the USA. Iraq's mixed run, including a 1-4 defeat to Norway, alongside Senegal's continued attacking output supports leaning toward a Senegal win, though É. Mendy's questionable goalkeeping status and recent defen
  • - The market is heavily skewed toward Senegal, with consensus implied probabilities around 77.5% for a Senegal win versus only 7.6% for Iraq and 14.9% for the draw, and that pricing held steady across the latest update points. On the squad-availability angle this perspective targets, the only observed injury is Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, which is a meaningful position, but a questionable status is not a confirmed absence and Senegal retains strong depth, while Iraq report

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Iraq win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Norway win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.30

Meta thinking

  • Market odds structureExamine the 13 captured odds entries to compare implied probabilities across home win, draw, and away win, and check consistency of pricing.
  • Recent form and goal trendsCompare the 5 recent results for both sides, noting Senegal's three straight losses including World Cup matches versus Iraq's mixed run, and assess goals scored and conceded.
  • Squad availabilityCheck the single observed Senegal injury for player role and impact relative to Iraq reporting zero injuries, while noting lineups remain uncaptured.

Tokens: 236

Perspectives

Market odds structureHome winThe market is tightly and consistently priced toward Senegal, with the latest consensus implied probabilities at 77.5% home win, 14.9% draw and only 7.6% for Iraq, and all sampled bookmakers (10bet, William Hill, bet365, marathonbet) clustering Senegal near 1.22-1.24 with no meaningful disagreement or movement across the ten update points. Senegal lost their two recent World Cup group games to Norway and France, but those were against strong opposition, while Iraq were beaten 1-4 by Norway, supp76%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds structure

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market is tightly and consistently priced toward Senegal, with the latest consensus implied probabilities at 77.5% home win, 14.9% draw and only 7.6% for Iraq, and all sampled bookmakers (10bet, William Hill, bet365, marathonbet) clustering Senegal near 1.22-1.24 with no meaningful disagreement or movement across the ten update points. Senegal lost their two recent World Cup group games to Norway and France, but those were against strong opposition, while Iraq were beaten 1-4 by Norway, supp

Conclusion note

Senegal are overwhelming favorites over Iraq at Toronto Stadium, with consensus odds implying about 77.5% for a Senegal win versus 14.9% for the draw and just 7.6% for Iraq, and bookmaker pricing is consistent near 1.22-1.24 with negligible movement. Confidence is tempered by Édouard Mendy's questionable status in goal and the lack of captured head-to-head and lineup data.

Recent form and goal trendsHome winThe bookmaker consensus prices Senegal as heavy favorites (around 77.5% implied probability) with stable, tightly-grouped odds across 10bet, William Hill and bet365, signalling a clear quality gap over Iraq despite Senegal's recent three losses to stronger sides like Norway, France and the USA. Iraq's mixed run, including a 1-4 defeat to Norway, alongside Senegal's continued attacking output supports leaning toward a Senegal win, though É. Mendy's questionable goalkeeping status and recent defen72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The bookmaker consensus prices Senegal as heavy favorites (around 77.5% implied probability) with stable, tightly-grouped odds across 10bet, William Hill and bet365, signalling a clear quality gap over Iraq despite Senegal's recent three losses to stronger sides like Norway, France and the USA. Iraq's mixed run, including a 1-4 defeat to Norway, alongside Senegal's continued attacking output supports leaning toward a Senegal win, though É. Mendy's questionable goalkeeping status and recent defen

Conclusion note
Repaired explanation

The market makes Senegal heavy favorites over Iraq at roughly 77.5% implied probability with stable, tightly-grouped odds (10bet 1.24, William Hill 1.22, bet365 1.22), reflecting a clear quality gap even though Senegal arrive on three straight losses to stronger nations. Iraq's mixed form, including a 1-4 loss to Norway, and Senegal's continued scoring point to a Senegal win, with confidence tempered by goalkeeper É. Mendy's uncertain availability and recent defensive lapses.

Squad availabilityHome winThe market is heavily skewed toward Senegal, with consensus implied probabilities around 77.5% for a Senegal win versus only 7.6% for Iraq and 14.9% for the draw, and that pricing held steady across the latest update points. On the squad-availability angle this perspective targets, the only observed injury is Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, which is a meaningful position, but a questionable status is not a confirmed absence and Senegal retains strong depth, while Iraq report74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Senegal vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Senegal injuries/availability: É. Mendy (Goalkeeper, #16) status questionable.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 77.5%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T12:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T16:15:12Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.08pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.02pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.24 / draw 5.9 / side B 11 → side A 1.24 / draw 5.7 / side B 11.5; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12 → side A 1.22 / draw 6 / side B 12; bet365 side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.25 / side B 12. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.24, draw 5.7, side B 11.5; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6, side B 12; bet365: side A 1.22, draw 6.25, side B 12; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.6, side B 13.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-25T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. The market is heavily skewed toward Senegal, with consensus implied probabilities around 77.5% for a Senegal win versus only 7.6% for Iraq and 14.9% for the draw, and that pricing held steady across the latest update points. On the squad-availability angle this perspective targets, the only observed injury is Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy listed as questionable, which is a meaningful position, but a questionable status is not a confirmed absence and Senegal retains strong depth, while Iraq report

Conclusion note

Senegal are clear favorites at home against Iraq, with bookmakers pricing a Senegal win near 77.5% against roughly 7.6% for Iraq and 14.9% for the draw. The main availability note is Senegal goalkeeper É. Mendy being questionable rather than ruled out while Iraq report no injuries, and with lineups, weather and head-to-head all uncaptured I temper confidence but still back Senegal.

Synthesis

Senegal are strong favorites over Iraq at Toronto Stadium, with all sampled bookmakers clustering a Senegal win near 1.22-1.24 (about 77.5% implied) and showing no real movement, reflecting a clear quality gap despite Senegal's three recent losses to tougher opponents. Iraq's mixed form, including a 1-4 defeat to Norway, reinforces the lean toward Senegal. The main caveats are goalkeeper Edouard Mendy's questionable availability and the missing lineup and head-to-head detail, so confidence sits a touch below the market price; as a hypothesis, Senegal may need a goal before the break to settle a potentially cagey opening.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives align on backing Senegal, who are priced as heavy home favorites against Iraq at roughly 77.5% implied probability across 10bet, William Hill and bet365, with stable odds near 1.22-1.24 and no meaningful movement. Senegal arrive on a run of three defeats to stronger sides like Norway, France and the USA, but those were against superior opposition, while Iraq were beaten 1-4 by Norway and bring mixed form. Confidence is tempered because goalkeeper Edouard Mendy is listed as

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Iraq win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Norway win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50