Qwen3.7 Max · Iran vs New Zealand

IranvsNew Zealand
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win58%Miss
BetHome win$570Aligned
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L-$570
PredictionConfidence: 58%
Home win

Iran enters this match in excellent form, having won four of their last five fixtures and scoring 13 goals, including impressive victories over Mali, Gambia, and Costa Rica. In stark contrast, New Zealand has struggled significantly, losing eight of their last ten matches and failing to score in their last five away defeats. The betting market strongly reflects this disparity, pricing Iran as clear favorites with an implied win probability of over 51 percent, while the odds have remained stable, indicating firm market conviction. Given New Zealand's barren attacking run on the road and Iran's defensive solidity and consistent attacking output, Iran is heavily favored to secure a comfortable victory.

Bet
Home win$570
Net P&L-$570
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $570
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$570

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Match script: Iran arrives in sharp form with four wins in five and 13 goals scored, while New Zealand have failed to score in their last five away defeats and lost eight of ten. At SoFi Stadium, expect Iran to control tempo and press high against a Kiwi side lacking road confidence; the most likely path is a controlled 2-0 or 1-0 win rather than a chaotic shootout. Execution price for Iran at 1.84 carries a +3.7% model edge, aligning market value with the on-pitch

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,833

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 58%Draw 24%Away win 18%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in recent form and goal trends. Iran have scored in every one of their last five matches and won four, showing consistent attacking output and defensive solidity. New Zealand have scored just four goals across their last five fixtures, all coming in a single home win over Chile, and have been shut out in every away game in that span while suffering heavy defeats. The odds consensus at approximately 1.83 for Iran and 4.5 or higher for N
  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff favors Iran: the consensus odds at approximately 1.83-1.86 for an Iran win reflect a market that sees a meaningful quality gap, and this is corroborated by Iran's productive attacking form in recent friendlies against varied opposition versus New Zealand's largely barren run of one win in ten games, most of them away losses with limited goal output. No visible injuries, suspensions, or head-to-head data contradict this picture, and the neutral Los Angeles venue doe
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.95Log loss 1.43

Meta thinking

  • Recent match results and goal trendsInvestigate the last five visible fixtures for both teams, comparing Iran's consistent scoring and winning record in friendlies against New Zealand's recent away defeats and scoring struggles to identify current momentum.
  • Market odds evaluationExamine the 14 captured pre-match odds observations to assess how the betting market prices this group stage matchup and whether the implied probabilities align with the visible disparities in recent international results.

Tokens: 3258

Perspectives

Recent match results and goal trendsHome winThe decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in recent form and goal trends. Iran have scored in every one of their last five matches and won four, showing consistent attacking output and defensive solidity. New Zealand have scored just four goals across their last five fixtures, all coming in a single home win over Chile, and have been shut out in every away game in that span while suffering heavy defeats. The odds consensus at approximately 1.83 for Iran and 4.5 or higher for N68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent match results and goal trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in recent form and goal trends. Iran have scored in every one of their last five matches and won four, showing consistent attacking output and defensive solidity. New Zealand have scored just four goals across their last five fixtures, all coming in a single home win over Chile, and have been shut out in every away game in that span while suffering heavy defeats. The odds consensus at approximately 1.83 for Iran and 4.5 or higher for N

Conclusion note

Iran enters this World Cup group stage match in strong form with four wins in their last five fixtures, scoring 13 goals while conceding only three, including recent friendly victories over Mali (2-0) and Gambia (3-1). New Zealand have lost four of their last five matches and have been especially poor away from home, failing to score in each of their last five away defeats while conceding 10 goals across those games. Bookmaker consensus supports Iran with a 51.7% implied win probability versus just 20.7% for New Zealand.

Market odds evaluationHome winThe decisive evidence tradeoff favors Iran: the consensus odds at approximately 1.83-1.86 for an Iran win reflect a market that sees a meaningful quality gap, and this is corroborated by Iran's productive attacking form in recent friendlies against varied opposition versus New Zealand's largely barren run of one win in ten games, most of them away losses with limited goal output. No visible injuries, suspensions, or head-to-head data contradict this picture, and the neutral Los Angeles venue doe72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff favors Iran: the consensus odds at approximately 1.83-1.86 for an Iran win reflect a market that sees a meaningful quality gap, and this is corroborated by Iran's productive attacking form in recent friendlies against varied opposition versus New Zealand's largely barren run of one win in ten games, most of them away losses with limited goal output. No visible injuries, suspensions, or head-to-head data contradict this picture, and the neutral Los Angeles venue doe

Conclusion note

The betting market across 14 bookmaker observations prices Iran as clear favorites with a 51.7% implied win probability, and this aligns with the stark form disparity: Iran has won seven of its last ten matches including dominant victories over Mali (2-0), Gambia (3-1), and Costa Rica (5-0), while New Zealand has lost eight of its last ten with recent defeats to England (0-1), Haiti (0-4), and Finland (0-2). The odds have remained essentially stable between June 12 and June 14, with only marginal drift toward the draw, suggesting market conviction in Iran's edge is firm and not merely speculative.

Synthesis

Iran enters this match in excellent form, having won four of their last five fixtures and scoring 13 goals, including impressive victories over Mali, Gambia, and Costa Rica. In stark contrast, New Zealand has struggled significantly, losing eight of their last ten matches and failing to score in their last five away defeats. The betting market strongly reflects this disparity, pricing Iran as clear favorites with an implied win probability of over 51 percent, while the odds have remained stable, indicating firm market conviction. Given New Zealand's barren attacking run on the road and Iran's defensive solidity and consistent attacking output, Iran is heavily favored to secure a comfortable victory.

Reasoning summary: Both recent form trends and market odds overwhelmingly support Iran to win this match. Iran has demonstrated strong attacking and defensive capabilities in recent friendlies, whereas New Zealand has endured a poor run of results, particularly struggling to score in away fixtures. The consensus odds align with this form disparity, offering stable and firm backing for Iran. Consequently, the synthesis of performance data and market evaluation points decisively toward an Iran victory.