MiMo V2.5 Pro · Iran vs New Zealand

IranvsNew Zealand
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win55%Miss
BetHome win$280Aligned
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L-$280
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Home win

Iran are favored to win against New Zealand based on their strong recent form, which includes four wins in five matches with 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded, contrasting sharply with New Zealand's one win in five matches and poor defensive record. The betting market supports this, assigning Iran an implied win probability of around 52% with stable odds. However, World Cup group stage unpredictability and the lack of head-to-head data introduce meaningful uncertainty, making this a confident but not overwhelming prediction for Iran.

Bet
Home win$280
Net P&L-$280
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $280
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$280

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction. Iran are clearly the superior side with strong recent form (4W/1L, 13GF/3GA) against a New Zealand team that lost 0-4 to Haiti and 0-2 to Finland/Ecuador. Model assigns 55% win probability with a small positive edge (+0.007) at Pinnacle's 1.840. Group stage expectation: Iran should control this match against weaker opposition. Moderate-conviction stake at ~3% of bankroll.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,397.1

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 55%Draw 26%Away win 19%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The recent form contrast is stark: Iran have won 4 of their last 5 matches with dominant goal-scoring and defensive solidity, while New Zealand have won only 1 of 5 with severe struggles to score and frequent concessions. Iran's momentum and attacking output versus New Zealand's recent vulnerability make an Iran win the most defensible outcome, though World Cup group stage unpredictability and the absence of head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty.
  • - The betting market assigns Iran approximately a 52% implied win probability, making it the single most likely outcome by a clear margin over the draw (28%) and New Zealand win (21%). Odds stability over the observed window suggests the market has consolidated its view without significant disagreement among bookmakers. However, the gap between Iran's win probability and the combined draw-plus-New Zealand probability (48%) means confidence remains moderate rather than high, as this is a World Cup
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.89Log loss 1.36

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form AnalysisCompare the last five match results for Iran and New Zealand to assess current performance trends, including win-loss records and goal-scoring patterns.
  • Market Odds AnalysisExamine the captured betting odds to infer implied probabilities and market expectations for the match outcome.

Tokens: 3289

Perspectives

Recent Form AnalysisHome winThe recent form contrast is stark: Iran have won 4 of their last 5 matches with dominant goal-scoring and defensive solidity, while New Zealand have won only 1 of 5 with severe struggles to score and frequent concessions. Iran's momentum and attacking output versus New Zealand's recent vulnerability make an Iran win the most defensible outcome, though World Cup group stage unpredictability and the absence of head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty.58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The recent form contrast is stark: Iran have won 4 of their last 5 matches with dominant goal-scoring and defensive solidity, while New Zealand have won only 1 of 5 with severe struggles to score and frequent concessions. Iran's momentum and attacking output versus New Zealand's recent vulnerability make an Iran win the most defensible outcome, though World Cup group stage unpredictability and the absence of head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty.

Conclusion note

Iran's last five matches show strong form with four wins and one loss, scoring 13 goals while conceding only 3 (including three clean sheets), while New Zealand's last five show poor form with only one win and four losses, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 10, which aligns with the bookmaker consensus favoring Iran at 51.7% implied probability.

Market Odds AnalysisHome winThe betting market assigns Iran approximately a 52% implied win probability, making it the single most likely outcome by a clear margin over the draw (28%) and New Zealand win (21%). Odds stability over the observed window suggests the market has consolidated its view without significant disagreement among bookmakers. However, the gap between Iran's win probability and the combined draw-plus-New Zealand probability (48%) means confidence remains moderate rather than high, as this is a World Cup52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The betting market assigns Iran approximately a 52% implied win probability, making it the single most likely outcome by a clear margin over the draw (28%) and New Zealand win (21%). Odds stability over the observed window suggests the market has consolidated its view without significant disagreement among bookmakers. However, the gap between Iran's win probability and the combined draw-plus-New Zealand probability (48%) means confidence remains moderate rather than high, as this is a World Cup

Conclusion note

Across 14 bookmaker samples, Iran are priced as clear favorites with a consensus implied win probability of 51.7%, compared to 27.6% for a draw and 20.7% for a New Zealand victory, with odds remaining stable from June 12 to June 14 indicating settled market expectations. Iran's recent form—six wins and one draw in their last ten matches including a 5-0 away victory over Costa Rica—aligns with the market favoring them over a New Zealand side that has lost eight of their last ten, though the draw probability around 28% introduces meaningful uncertainty.

Synthesis

Iran are favored to win against New Zealand based on their strong recent form, which includes four wins in five matches with 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded, contrasting sharply with New Zealand's one win in five matches and poor defensive record. The betting market supports this, assigning Iran an implied win probability of around 52% with stable odds. However, World Cup group stage unpredictability and the lack of head-to-head data introduce meaningful uncertainty, making this a confident but not overwhelming prediction for Iran.

Reasoning summary: Both the recent form analysis and market odds analysis agree on an Iran win. Iran's dominant attacking and defensive statistics in recent matches align with the bookmaker consensus favoring them, while New Zealand's struggles in form and goal-scoring reinforce this outcome. The synthesis of these perspectives, despite some uncertainty from World Cup dynamics, points to Iran as the most likely winner.