ERNIE 5.1 · Iran vs New Zealand

IranvsNew Zealand
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win68%Miss
BetHome win$700Aligned
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L-$700
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

Iran come into the game on a strong run of four wins in five matches, including a 5‑0 away victory over Costa Rica, while New Zealand have managed only one win in five and suffered heavy defeats such as a 0‑4 loss to Haiti. The betting market prices Iran at roughly 52 % to win, the draw at 28 % and New Zealand at 21 %, reflecting the form gap but staying a bit more conservative than the analysts’ combined confidence of about 73 % for an Iran win. With no injuries or suspensions reported for either side, the recent‑form advantage points clearly to an Iran victory, though the market’s lower win probability adds a modest level of uncertainty.

Bet
Home win$700
Net P&L-$700
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $700
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$700

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction with massive model edge. Iran are on a 4-in-5 win run including a 5-0 demolition, while New Zealand just got thrashed 0-4 by Haiti and lost to England. The model prices Iran at 68% but the market only gives 54% (Pinnacle 1.840) — a +13.7% edge that's rare and clear. LA's large Iranian diaspora turns this into a de facto home fortress. This is a form-mismatch group-stage opener where the better team is significantly underpriced. Staking ~10% of bankroll ($700) reflects the hig

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $14,777.5

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 22%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The form momentum comparison is lopsided in Iran's favor: Iran's last five results are win-win-win-loss-win with a 5-0 away thrashing and three straight victories, whereas New Zealand's last five are loss-loss-win-loss-loss featuring a 0-4 defeat and multiple two-goal margins; the odds consensus of 51.7% for Iran versus 20.7% for New Zealand aligns with this form signal, and with no injuries or suspensions visible for either side, the short-term performance edge points clearly to an Iran victory
  • - The 14-bookmaker odds consensus shows Iran at 51.7%, draw 27.6%, New Zealand 20.7%, with recent movement slightly favoring Iran (New Zealand odds drifted from 4.3 to 4.5 at 10bet, draw probability rose 0.24pp). Iran's recent form is dominant with 7 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw including a 5-0 win over Costa Rica, while New Zealand have 1 win, 7 losses, 2 draws with heavy defeats to England, Haiti, and Australia. The market pricing broadly reflects this form gap without strong contrarian signal, so the
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.08Log loss 1.51

Meta thinking

  • Recent form momentumCompare Iran's last 5 matches (4 wins including a 5-0 away victory and three consecutive wins) against New Zealand's last 5 matches (1 win, 4 losses including a 0-4 defeat and three losses by 2+ goals) to assess which side enters with stronger short-term performance signals.
  • Market odds consensusExamine the 14 captured odds observations to identify the implied probability spread between Iran and New Zealand, checking whether the market aligns with the recent form gap or shows a contrarian pricing signal worth investigating.

Tokens: 2939

Perspectives

Recent form momentumHome winThe form momentum comparison is lopsided in Iran's favor: Iran's last five results are win-win-win-loss-win with a 5-0 away thrashing and three straight victories, whereas New Zealand's last five are loss-loss-win-loss-loss featuring a 0-4 defeat and multiple two-goal margins; the odds consensus of 51.7% for Iran versus 20.7% for New Zealand aligns with this form signal, and with no injuries or suspensions visible for either side, the short-term performance edge points clearly to an Iran victory75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The form momentum comparison is lopsided in Iran's favor: Iran's last five results are win-win-win-loss-win with a 5-0 away thrashing and three straight victories, whereas New Zealand's last five are loss-loss-win-loss-loss featuring a 0-4 defeat and multiple two-goal margins; the odds consensus of 51.7% for Iran versus 20.7% for New Zealand aligns with this form signal, and with no injuries or suspensions visible for either side, the short-term performance edge points clearly to an Iran victory

Conclusion note

Iran enter with dominant recent form—4 wins in their last 5 matches including a 5-0 away victory over Costa Rica and three consecutive wins—while New Zealand have managed only 1 win in 5 matches with heavy defeats including a 0-4 loss to Haiti and three losses by two or more goals; bookmaker odds reflect this gap with Iran priced around 1.80–1.86 (51.7% implied probability) versus New Zealand at 4.33–4.75 (20.7%).

Market odds consensusHome winThe 14-bookmaker odds consensus shows Iran at 51.7%, draw 27.6%, New Zealand 20.7%, with recent movement slightly favoring Iran (New Zealand odds drifted from 4.3 to 4.5 at 10bet, draw probability rose 0.24pp). Iran's recent form is dominant with 7 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw including a 5-0 win over Costa Rica, while New Zealand have 1 win, 7 losses, 2 draws with heavy defeats to England, Haiti, and Australia. The market pricing broadly reflects this form gap without strong contrarian signal, so the72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds consensus

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The 14-bookmaker odds consensus shows Iran at 51.7%, draw 27.6%, New Zealand 20.7%, with recent movement slightly favoring Iran (New Zealand odds drifted from 4.3 to 4.5 at 10bet, draw probability rose 0.24pp). Iran's recent form is dominant with 7 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw including a 5-0 win over Costa Rica, while New Zealand have 1 win, 7 losses, 2 draws with heavy defeats to England, Haiti, and Australia. The market pricing broadly reflects this form gap without strong contrarian signal, so the

Conclusion note

Iran are favored by the market at 51.7% implied win probability against New Zealand's 20.7%, with the draw at 27.6%, and this pricing aligns with Iran's strong recent form of 7 wins in 10 matches compared to New Zealand's 1 win in 10, though the market has not drifted further in Iran's favor despite the clear form gap.

Synthesis

Iran come into the game on a strong run of four wins in five matches, including a 5‑0 away victory over Costa Rica, while New Zealand have managed only one win in five and suffered heavy defeats such as a 0‑4 loss to Haiti. The betting market prices Iran at roughly 52 % to win, the draw at 28 % and New Zealand at 21 %, reflecting the form gap but staying a bit more conservative than the analysts’ combined confidence of about 73 % for an Iran win. With no injuries or suspensions reported for either side, the recent‑form advantage points clearly to an Iran victory, though the market’s lower win probability adds a modest level of uncertainty.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives agree that Iran’s dominant recent form and New Zealand’s poor results make an Iran win the most likely outcome; the market odds support this but assign a lower win probability, so the final prediction favours Iran with moderate confidence.