DeepSeek V4 Pro · Iran vs New Zealand

IranvsNew Zealand
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win60%Miss
BetHome win$400Aligned
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L-$400
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Home win

All three analytical perspectives point to an Iran victory. Iran's recent form is outstanding, with four wins in five matches including a 5-0 demolition of Costa Rica and 13 goals scored, while New Zealand have lost four of five, conceding 10 times. Although Iran's wins came largely against lower-ranked opponents, their 64-place advantage in the FIFA rankings and the overwhelming bookmaker consensus (Iran win implied probability of 51.7%) establish them as the clear favorite. The neutral venue in Los Angeles removes any home bias. Given the sharp contrast in current form and the market's steady pricing, Iran is expected to control the match and secure a win, most likely by a two-goal margin. However, New Zealand's occasional competitiveness against higher-ranked teams and Iran's soft schedule introduce some uncertainty, keeping overall confidence at a moderate level.

Bet
Home win$400
Net P&L-$400
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $400
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$400

    Betting rationale：Iran enter this match in scintillating form, with four wins in five including a 5-0 away rout of Costa Rica, while New Zealand have lost four of five, conceding heavily against Haiti and struggling for consistency. The neutral venue in Los Angeles removes any travel or altitude disadvantage. Although the fixture lacks direct head-to-head history, the gulf in FIFA rankings and contrasting recent momentum point to Iran controlling possession and creating chances. Pinnacle's 1.84 quote implies a 54

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,414.7

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 60%Draw 25%Away win 15%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - Recent competitive form is decisively in Iran's favor: 4 wins from their last 5 with dominant scorelines versus New Zealand's 4 losses from 5 with heavy concessions. Combined with a neutral-venue setting, a wide FIFA ranking gap, and bookmaker odds implying over 50% Iran win probability, the form evidence strongly supports an Iran victory despite the absence of head-to-head history or confirmed lineups.
  • - Iran's recent wins came predominantly against lower-ranked opponents, while New Zealand's dismal 1-1-8 record reflects a brutal schedule against top-30 nations. Adjusting for opponent quality modestly narrows the form gap, but Iran's significant ranking edge (21 vs 85), their ability to dispatch weaker teams convincingly, and the odds consensus firmly backing a side A win at 51.7% implied probability all support an Iran victory. New Zealand's competitiveness against elite teams is offset by thei
  • - The decisive evidence is the consistent bookmaker consensus across all 14 captured odds: every bookmaker prices Iran as the clear favorite, with implied win probability above 50% and draw plus New Zealand win combining for just under half. The tight clustering of Iran win odds (1.80–1.86) and negligible market movement over two days confirm a stable, high-agreement market. The neutral Los Angeles venue does not distort the pricing, as no artificial home edge appears for either side. While the ab
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.95Log loss 1.39

Meta thinking

  • Recent competitive formExamine the last five matches for Iran and New Zealand, including wins, losses, draws, and goals scored/conceded, to gauge current performance levels and momentum.
  • Quality of recent opponentsAnalyze the relative strength of the teams faced in Iran's and New Zealand's recent friendlies and FIFA Series matches, to determine if their recent results are inflated by weak opposition or indicative of solid form.
  • Market odds assessmentUsing the 14 captured odds, derive implied probabilities of a win, draw, or loss for each side, and check for consensus across bookmakers. Note whether the neutral Los Angeles venue is reflected in the pricing.

Tokens: 3856

Perspectives

Recent competitive formHome winRecent competitive form is decisively in Iran's favor: 4 wins from their last 5 with dominant scorelines versus New Zealand's 4 losses from 5 with heavy concessions. Combined with a neutral-venue setting, a wide FIFA ranking gap, and bookmaker odds implying over 50% Iran win probability, the form evidence strongly supports an Iran victory despite the absence of head-to-head history or confirmed lineups.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check tournament context

    #10

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran vs New Zealand group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Belgium 0 pts/0 played; Egypt 0 pts/0 played; Iran 0 pts/0 played; New Zealand 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Egypt; Iran vs New Zealand; Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 21. points 1615.3; previous rank 20; previous points 1617.02; rated matches 54; confederation AFC.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 85. points 1281.57; previous rank 85; previous points 1279.25; rated matches 45; confederation OFC.

  14. Check head-to-head

    #13

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. Recent competitive form is decisively in Iran's favor: 4 wins from their last 5 with dominant scorelines versus New Zealand's 4 losses from 5 with heavy concessions. Combined with a neutral-venue setting, a wide FIFA ranking gap, and bookmaker odds implying over 50% Iran win probability, the form evidence strongly supports an Iran victory despite the absence of head-to-head history or confirmed lineups.

Conclusion note

Iran enters the match in strong form with four wins in their last five outings, including a 5-0 away victory over Costa Rica and a combined 13 goals scored while conceding only 3. New Zealand, by contrast, have lost four of their last five matches — most recently a 4-0 defeat to Haiti and a 1-0 loss to England — managing just 4 goals and conceding 10 over that span. The odds consensus also points firmly toward Iran (51.7% implied win probability versus 20.7% for New Zealand), and the FIFA ranking gap (21st vs 85th) reinforces the form disparity.

Quality of recent opponentsHome winIran's recent wins came predominantly against lower-ranked opponents, while New Zealand's dismal 1-1-8 record reflects a brutal schedule against top-30 nations. Adjusting for opponent quality modestly narrows the form gap, but Iran's significant ranking edge (21 vs 85), their ability to dispatch weaker teams convincingly, and the odds consensus firmly backing a side A win at 51.7% implied probability all support an Iran victory. New Zealand's competitiveness against elite teams is offset by thei58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Quality of recent opponents

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 21. points 1615.3; previous rank 20; previous points 1617.02; rated matches 54; confederation AFC.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 85. points 1281.57; previous rank 85; previous points 1279.25; rated matches 45; confederation OFC.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 0. record 6W-1D-3L；goals for/against 24/11, per-match 2.4/1.1。 Event sample: scored first in 0, conceded first in 0. Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；lineup data covers only part of the sample；some match details are unavailable；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 0. record 1W-1D-8L；goals for/against 7/18, per-match 0.7/1.8。 Event sample: scored first in 0, conceded first in 0. Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；some match details are unavailable；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  14. Check match details

    #13

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  15. Check team ranking facts

    #14

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. England's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 4. points 1825.97; previous rank 4; previous points 1834.12; rated matches 56; confederation UEFA.

  16. Check team ranking facts

    #15

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  17. Check team ranking facts

    #16

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Colombia's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 13. points 1693.09; previous rank 14; previous points 1701.3; rated matches 55; confederation CONMEBOL.

  18. Check team ranking facts

    #17

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Norway's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 31. points 1550.94; previous rank 32; previous points 1553.14; rated matches 46; confederation UEFA.

  19. Check team ranking facts

    #18

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  20. Check team ranking facts

    #19

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  21. Check team ranking facts

    #20

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  22. Check team ranking facts

    #21

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  23. Check team ranking facts

    #22

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  24. Check team ranking facts

    #23

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  25. The tool-call budget for this stage is exhausted; this tool call was not executed. Give the final JSON conclusion now based on the evidence already read.

  26. Perspective analysis — Quality of recent opponents: Iran's 10-match sample (6W-1D-3L) includes wins over Mali, Gambia, Tanzania, India, Afghanistan — all likely outside the top 50. Their three losses came against Nigeria, Russia and Qatar, the strongest teams they faced. New Zealand's 1W-1D-8L record looks dire but their schedule included England (#4), Colombia (#13), Norway (#31), plus Australia, Poland, Ecuador, Chile and Finland — all top-50 caliber except Haiti. They drew Norway away and los

  27. Iran's recent wins came predominantly against lower-ranked opponents, while New Zealand's dismal 1-1-8 record reflects a brutal schedule against top-30 nations. Adjusting for opponent quality modestly narrows the form gap, but Iran's significant ranking edge (21 vs 85), their ability to dispatch weaker teams convincingly, and the odds consensus firmly backing a side A win at 51.7% implied probability all support an Iran victory. New Zealand's competitiveness against elite teams is offset by thei

Conclusion note

Iran (FIFA rank 21) have won six of their last ten matches, but those victories came against weaker opponents such as Mali, Gambia, Tanzania, India and Afghanistan, while their three defeats fell against stronger sides Nigeria, Russia and Qatar — suggesting their recent form may be partly inflated by soft opposition. New Zealand (FIFA rank 85) have lost eight of ten, yet they faced far tougher teams including England (rank 4), Colombia (rank 13) and Norway (rank 31), managing a draw away to Norway and narrow one-goal losses to England and Colombia, which indicates they can compete above their ranking. Even after adjusting for opponent quality, Iran's 64-place ranking advantage and 51.7% consensus implied win probability still make them the justified favourite, though a 0-4 loss by New Zealand to Haiti and the lack of lineup or head-to-head data add uncertainty.

Market odds assessmentHome winThe decisive evidence is the consistent bookmaker consensus across all 14 captured odds: every bookmaker prices Iran as the clear favorite, with implied win probability above 50% and draw plus New Zealand win combining for just under half. The tight clustering of Iran win odds (1.80–1.86) and negligible market movement over two days confirm a stable, high-agreement market. The neutral Los Angeles venue does not distort the pricing, as no artificial home edge appears for either side. While the ab60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 21. points 1615.3; previous rank 20; previous points 1617.02; rated matches 54; confederation AFC.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 85. points 1281.57; previous rank 85; previous points 1279.25; rated matches 45; confederation OFC.

  13. Check tournament context

    #12

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran vs New Zealand group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Belgium 0 pts/0 played; Egypt 0 pts/0 played; Iran 0 pts/0 played; New Zealand 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Egypt; Iran vs New Zealand; Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  14. Market odds assessment for Iran vs New Zealand: 14 bookmakers show strong consensus favoring Iran. Latest implied probabilities: Iran win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, New Zealand win 20.7%. Iran odds cluster tightly between 1.80 (William Hill) and 1.86 (earlier 10bet), now 1.84 at 10bet. Draw ranges 3.35-3.50, and New Zealand win 4.30-4.80. The narrow spread across bookmakers signals high agreement. Market movement over two days was negligible (draw +0.24pp, NZL -0.24pp). The neutral Los Angeles venue app

  15. The decisive evidence is the consistent bookmaker consensus across all 14 captured odds: every bookmaker prices Iran as the clear favorite, with implied win probability above 50% and draw plus New Zealand win combining for just under half. The tight clustering of Iran win odds (1.80–1.86) and negligible market movement over two days confirm a stable, high-agreement market. The neutral Los Angeles venue does not distort the pricing, as no artificial home edge appears for either side. While the ab

Conclusion note

Fourteen bookmakers show a clear consensus that Iran will defeat New Zealand, with implied probabilities of 51.7% for an Iran win, 27.6% for a draw, and 20.7% for a New Zealand win. The 1X2 lines cluster tightly — Iran between 1.80 and 1.86, the draw between 3.35 and 3.50, and New Zealand between 4.30 and 4.80 — indicating strong agreement across the market. The neutral Los Angeles venue is appropriately priced, as neither side receives a home advantage premium, and the lopsided odds reflect the significant ranking gap (Iran 21st vs. New Zealand 85th) and sharply contrasting recent form rather than any venue bias.

Synthesis

All three analytical perspectives point to an Iran victory. Iran's recent form is outstanding, with four wins in five matches including a 5-0 demolition of Costa Rica and 13 goals scored, while New Zealand have lost four of five, conceding 10 times. Although Iran's wins came largely against lower-ranked opponents, their 64-place advantage in the FIFA rankings and the overwhelming bookmaker consensus (Iran win implied probability of 51.7%) establish them as the clear favorite. The neutral venue in Los Angeles removes any home bias. Given the sharp contrast in current form and the market's steady pricing, Iran is expected to control the match and secure a win, most likely by a two-goal margin. However, New Zealand's occasional competitiveness against higher-ranked teams and Iran's soft schedule introduce some uncertainty, keeping overall confidence at a moderate level.

Reasoning summary: The prediction is driven by unanimous support from the three perspectives: recent form, opponent quality adjustment, and market odds. Iran's dominant recent results (4 wins in 5, 13-3 goal difference) versus New Zealand's poor run (1 win in 5, 4-10 goal difference) make them the justified favorite. Adjusting for the weaker opponents faced by Iran partially tempers the confidence, but the market consensus across 14 bookmakers reinforces an Iran win probability above 50%. The draw and New Zealand