DeepSeek V4 Flash · Iran vs New Zealand

IranvsNew Zealand
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win65%Miss
BetHome win$310Aligned
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L-$310
PredictionConfidence: 65%
Home win

Iran enter the tournament in far better form than New Zealand, sitting 21st in the FIFA rankings against New Zealand's 85th, and having won six of their last ten matches including a 5-0 thrashing of Costa Rica. The betting market reflects this gap, with consensus odds giving Iran approximately 52% implied probability. New Zealand have lost eight of their last ten outings, and while some defeats were against elite sides, a 4-0 loss to Haiti points to weak defensive resilience. No head-to-head or confirmed lineup details are available, which leaves some uncertainty, but the aggregate evidence makes an Iran win the most defensible 90-minute outcome. The draw is not dismissed given the occasion, but Iran's recent defensive solidity suggests they can hold a lead.

Bet
Home win$310
Net P&L-$310
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $310
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$310

    Betting rationale：Iran enter the tournament in much stronger form than New Zealand, with six wins in their last ten and a 5-0 thrashing of Costa Rica, while New Zealand have lost eight of their last ten and were hammered 4-0 by Haiti. The model projects a 65% Iran win probability, and Pinnacle’s 1.84 offers a clear positive edge. In a World Cup group opener, Iran’s defensive organisation and superior quality should prevail. A moderate stake reflects solid value without overcommitting on a single match.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,674.2

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 65%Draw 20%Away win 15%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - Fourteen captured bookmaker samples consistently price Iran as the favourite, with a consensus win probability more than double that of New Zealand. The ranking gap (Iran 21st, New Zealand 85th) and recent results (Iran 6W-1D-3L in last 10, New Zealand 1W-1D-8L) align with the market view, making Iran the most defensible 90-minute outcome despite missing head-to-head and lineup details.
  • - Iran hold a commanding lead in FIFA ranking and recent results, having posted convincing friendly wins against varied opponents while conceding few goals. New Zealand's form is poor even after accounting for the stronger teams they faced, and the betting market reflects a clear Iranian advantage at approximately 52% implied probability. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the evidence points to an Iran victory, though the absence of lineup and weather data prevents higher c
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.09Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsAnalyze the 14 captured odds to infer the market's probability assessment for a win by either side or a draw, noting any asymmetry that may indicate value.
  • Recent form and opponent qualityCompare the recent match history of Iran and New Zealand, adjusting for opponent strength and competition type, to gauge which team appears better prepared for a World Cup group stage encounter.

Tokens: 3580

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winFourteen captured bookmaker samples consistently price Iran as the favourite, with a consensus win probability more than double that of New Zealand. The ranking gap (Iran 21st, New Zealand 85th) and recent results (Iran 6W-1D-3L in last 10, New Zealand 1W-1D-8L) align with the market view, making Iran the most defensible 90-minute outcome despite missing head-to-head and lineup details.65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Check detailed weather

    #9

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 21. points 1615.3; previous rank 20; previous points 1617.02; rated matches 54; confederation AFC.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 85. points 1281.57; previous rank 85; previous points 1279.25; rated matches 45; confederation OFC.

  13. Market-odds perspective for IRN vs NZL: Consensus implied probabilities (Iran 51.7%, draw 27.6%, New Zealand 20.7%) show a clear market lean toward Iran. Supported by FIFA ranking disparity (#21 vs #85) and recent form (Iran 6 wins in last 10, NZ 1 win in last 10). No H2H or lineups available, but odds asymmetry points to Iran value.

  14. Fourteen captured bookmaker samples consistently price Iran as the favourite, with a consensus win probability more than double that of New Zealand. The ranking gap (Iran 21st, New Zealand 85th) and recent results (Iran 6W-1D-3L in last 10, New Zealand 1W-1D-8L) align with the market view, making Iran the most defensible 90-minute outcome despite missing head-to-head and lineup details.

Conclusion note

The market strongly favours Iran (consensus ~51.7% implied probability) over New Zealand (~20.7%), with representative odds such as bet365 at 1.83 for Iran and 4.75 for New Zealand. Iran's recent form (six wins in ten friendlies, including wins over Mali and Costa Rica) and FIFA ranking of 21st compared to New Zealand's 85th support the odds asymmetry, though no head-to-head or lineup data is available to adjust the assessment.

Recent form and opponent qualityHome winIran hold a commanding lead in FIFA ranking and recent results, having posted convincing friendly wins against varied opponents while conceding few goals. New Zealand's form is poor even after accounting for the stronger teams they faced, and the betting market reflects a clear Iranian advantage at approximately 52% implied probability. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the evidence points to an Iran victory, though the absence of lineup and weather data prevents higher c65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and opponent quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Fixture: IRN vs NZL. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.7%, draw 27.6%, side B win 20.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0.24pp, side B win -0.24pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.86 / draw 3.35 / side B 4.3 → side A 1.84 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.33; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.84, draw 3.4, side B 4.5; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.5, side B 4.33; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.4, side B 4.75; marathonbet: side A 1.83, draw 3.48, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-02-07T15:00:00Z, competition Asian Cup, against Qatar, home/away home, score 2-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-09-05T09:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 21. points 1615.3; previous rank 20; previous points 1617.02; rated matches 54; confederation AFC.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. New Zealand's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 85. points 1281.57; previous rank 85; previous points 1279.25; rated matches 45; confederation OFC.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. Iran vs New Zealand group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Belgium 0 pts/0 played; Egypt 0 pts/0 played; Iran 0 pts/0 played; New Zealand 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Egypt; Iran vs New Zealand; Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check stadium history

    #12

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. match records: no items.

  14. Recall memory

    #13

    Relevant memory: Data as of 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z. memory notes: 3 item(s).

    • Item 1: Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
      • relevance: 0.429
      • Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
      • Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1.
      • Original Judgment
    • Item 2: Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
      • relevance: 0.143
      • Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
      • Recall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1.
      • Original Judgment
    • Item 3: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
      • relevance: 0.143
      • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
      • Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
      • Original Judgment

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. Iran hold a commanding lead in FIFA ranking and recent results, having posted convincing friendly wins against varied opponents while conceding few goals. New Zealand's form is poor even after accounting for the stronger teams they faced, and the betting market reflects a clear Iranian advantage at approximately 52% implied probability. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the evidence points to an Iran victory, though the absence of lineup and weather data prevents higher c

Conclusion note

Iran are strong favorites against New Zealand based on the rankings gap (21st vs 85th), a much superior recent record (six wins in the last ten matches including a 5-0 thrashing of Costa Rica), and consensus odds that give Iran a 51.7% win probability with an average price near 1.84. New Zealand have lost eight of their last ten outings, and while several of those defeats came against higher-ranked sides such as England and Colombia, the 4-0 loss to Haiti and a solitary win over Chile suggest they arrive at this World Cup group opener in poor rhythm.

Synthesis

Iran enter the tournament in far better form than New Zealand, sitting 21st in the FIFA rankings against New Zealand's 85th, and having won six of their last ten matches including a 5-0 thrashing of Costa Rica. The betting market reflects this gap, with consensus odds giving Iran approximately 52% implied probability. New Zealand have lost eight of their last ten outings, and while some defeats were against elite sides, a 4-0 loss to Haiti points to weak defensive resilience. No head-to-head or confirmed lineup details are available, which leaves some uncertainty, but the aggregate evidence makes an Iran win the most defensible 90-minute outcome. The draw is not dismissed given the occasion, but Iran's recent defensive solidity suggests they can hold a lead.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives strongly favor Iran due to the large ranking gap (21st vs 85th), a vastly superior recent record (six wins in ten matches including a resounding win over Costa Rica, while New Zealand suffered eight losses in ten), and consistent betting odds that price Iran as clear favorites. No counter-indications such as head-to-head or lineup data exist, and no suspensions are reported. Therefore, an Iran victory is predicted with moderate confidence.