GLM-5.1 · Haiti vs Scotland

HaitivsScotland
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win64%Hit
BetAway win$290Aligned
Post-match result0-1
Net P&L+$171.1
PredictionConfidence: 64%
Away win

All three perspectives unanimously favour Scotland (side B). Market consensus prices Scotland at ~61% with tightly clustered, stable odds. Recent form shows Scotland with 3 wins and 12 goals in their last 5, while Haiti's 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses record is inflated by one outlier 4-0 result against New Zealand. Opponent-strength calibration strips away both teams' wins over weak opposition and reveals Scotland's competitive UEFA Nations League results (beat Croatia and Poland, drew Portugal) versus Haiti's inability to beat any reasonably strong side. The main uncertainty is missing head-to-head, lineup and weather data, and Haiti's scheduled home status in Foxborough which may offer modest crowd support. These gaps prevent pushing confidence much above the consensus range. The most likely exact scorelines lean toward Scotland winning by one or two goals, with 0-2 slightly more probable than 0-1 given Scotland's tendency to score multiple goals in victories.

Bet
Away win$290
Net P&L+$171.1
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $290
    odds 1.59Settled: win+$171.1

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on Scotland. Match script is clear: Scotland carry genuine UEFA competitive pedigree (beat Croatia and Poland, drew Portugal in Nations League), while Haiti cannot beat reasonably strong sides — their only recent win was an outlier 4-0 vs New Zealand. Scotland's recent form shows 3 wins with 12 goals scored and a pattern of multi-goal victories, aligning with the predicted scorelines 0-2 and 0-1. Haiti's scheduled home status in Foxborough offers only modest crowd support

    Payout: $461.1 · Balance after: $10,128.7

Post-match result0-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 21%Away win 64%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1Hit
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The market consensus across 14 observations clearly favours Scotland at ~61% with stable odds and no detectable movement. Haiti's implied probability (~16%) and draw (~23%) are both low. Bookmaker lines are tightly clustered, indicating low disagreement among bookmakers. Missing lineup, H2H, and weather data prevent raising confidence above the market's own implied level, so the prediction aligns with the market expectation of a Scotland win at a confidence matching the consensus implied probabi
  • - Scotland's last 5: 3W 2L, 12 goals scored (4 per win), 3 conceded; losses narrow 0-1. Haiti's last 5: 1W 1D 3L, 7 goals scored (4 in one outlier win, 0-1 in others), 6 conceded. Scotland's scoring pattern in wins is consistently high while Haiti's results are mixed and low-scoring outside one match. Odds consensus aligns at ~61% Scotland win. Key uncertainty: Scotland can produce scoreless performances against stronger sides, and no h2h or lineup data is available.
  • - Haiti beat only very weak opponents and lost to all reasonably competitive ones; Scotland beat weak teams but also defeated Croatia and Poland and drew Portugal in competitive UEFA Nations League matches. Opponent strength calibration strips away the inflation in both teams' records and reveals Scotland has genuine competitive form while Haiti does not. Market odds (Scotland ~61%) support this reading. Confidence held at 0.65 due to missing h2h, lineup, and weather data, plus Haiti's home-schedu
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.20Log loss 0.45

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds ExpectationAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match odds observations to assess how the market prices each side's probability and whether implied margins suggest a close or lopsided contest, without assuming the market is correct.
  • Recent Form & Scoring PatternsCompare the 5 visible recent matches for each team, focusing on result consistency, goals scored and conceded, and whether Scotland's higher-scoring wins contrast meaningfully with Haiti's mixed outcomes.
  • Opponent Strength CalibrationEvaluate the competitive level of each team's recent opponents (Peru, New Zealand, Iceland, Tunisia, USA for Haiti; Bolivia, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Japan, Liechtenstein for Scotland) to determine whether recent results reflect genuine form or opponent quality variance.

Tokens: 2282

Perspectives

Market Odds ExpectationAway winThe market consensus across 14 observations clearly favours Scotland at ~61% with stable odds and no detectable movement. Haiti's implied probability (~16%) and draw (~23%) are both low. Bookmaker lines are tightly clustered, indicating low disagreement among bookmakers. Missing lineup, H2H, and weather data prevent raising confidence above the market's own implied level, so the prediction aligns with the market expectation of a Scotland win at a confidence matching the consensus implied probabi61%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Expectation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: HAI vs SCO. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T21:00:00-04:00. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.3%, draw 22.6%, side B win 61.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0pp, draw -0pp, side B win +0.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57; william_hill side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5 → side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.6, draw 4.1, side B 1.57; william_hill: side A 6, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 5.25, draw 4.33, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 5.8, draw 4.3, side B 1.57. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T21:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Sint Maarten, home/away away, score 8-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Scotland:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-09T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Liechtenstein, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. The market consensus across 14 observations clearly favours Scotland at ~61% with stable odds and no detectable movement. Haiti's implied probability (~16%) and draw (~23%) are both low. Bookmaker lines are tightly clustered, indicating low disagreement among bookmakers. Missing lineup, H2H, and weather data prevent raising confidence above the market's own implied level, so the prediction aligns with the market expectation of a Scotland win at a confidence matching the consensus implied probabi

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker samples across 7 update points price Scotland (side B) at a consensus implied probability of 61.1%, Haiti at 16.3%, and draw at 22.6%. The odds are stable across the most recent update interval (12:30 UTC to 16:19 UTC on June 12), with negligible movement of +0.01pp on Scotland and no change on the other outcomes. Individual bookmaker lines cluster tightly: Scotland 1.50–1.57, Haiti 5.25–6.00, draw 4.10–4.33. This stable, lopsided pricing signals consistent market conviction that Scotland are strong favourites. The implied margin in the consensus is minimal (probabilities sum to 100.0%), suggesting the consensus figures are already margin-adjusted. Neither injuries, lineups, H2H, nor weather are captured, so confidence is capped at the market's own implied level rather than inflated beyond it.

Recent Form & Scoring PatternsAway winScotland's last 5: 3W 2L, 12 goals scored (4 per win), 3 conceded; losses narrow 0-1. Haiti's last 5: 1W 1D 3L, 7 goals scored (4 in one outlier win, 0-1 in others), 6 conceded. Scotland's scoring pattern in wins is consistently high while Haiti's results are mixed and low-scoring outside one match. Odds consensus aligns at ~61% Scotland win. Key uncertainty: Scotland can produce scoreless performances against stronger sides, and no h2h or lineup data is available.66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form & Scoring Patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: HAI vs SCO. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T21:00:00-04:00. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.3%, draw 22.6%, side B win 61.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0pp, draw -0pp, side B win +0.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57; william_hill side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5 → side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.6, draw 4.1, side B 1.57; william_hill: side A 6, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 5.25, draw 4.33, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 5.8, draw 4.3, side B 1.57. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T21:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Sint Maarten, home/away away, score 8-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Scotland:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-09T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Liechtenstein, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Scotland's last 5: 3W 2L, 12 goals scored (4 per win), 3 conceded; losses narrow 0-1. Haiti's last 5: 1W 1D 3L, 7 goals scored (4 in one outlier win, 0-1 in others), 6 conceded. Scotland's scoring pattern in wins is consistently high while Haiti's results are mixed and low-scoring outside one match. Odds consensus aligns at ~61% Scotland win. Key uncertainty: Scotland can produce scoreless performances against stronger sides, and no h2h or lineup data is available.

Conclusion note

Comparing the 5 most recent matches, Scotland's recent form is superior: 3 wins, 2 losses, scoring 12 goals (4 in each win) and conceding only 3. Their losses were narrow 0-1 defeats against Ivory Coast and Japan. Haiti's 5 most recent matches yield 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, scoring 7 goals with 4 of those concentrated in one match (4-0 vs New Zealand); their other four matches produced only 0-1 goal per game. Scotland's higher-scoring wins contrast meaningfully with Haiti's inconsistent output and poorer result consistency, supporting a Scotland win, though Scotland's own tendency to fail to score in losses and the lack of head-to-head or lineup data moderate confidence.

Opponent Strength CalibrationAway winHaiti beat only very weak opponents and lost to all reasonably competitive ones; Scotland beat weak teams but also defeated Croatia and Poland and drew Portugal in competitive UEFA Nations League matches. Opponent strength calibration strips away the inflation in both teams' records and reveals Scotland has genuine competitive form while Haiti does not. Market odds (Scotland ~61%) support this reading. Confidence held at 0.65 due to missing h2h, lineup, and weather data, plus Haiti's home-schedu65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Opponent Strength Calibration

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: HAI vs SCO. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T21:00:00-04:00. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Scotland: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.3%, draw 22.6%, side B win 61.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0pp, draw -0pp, side B win +0.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.6 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.57; william_hill side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5 → side A 6 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.6, draw 4.1, side B 1.57; william_hill: side A 6, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 5.25, draw 4.33, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 5.8, draw 4.3, side B 1.57. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T21:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Sint Maarten, home/away away, score 8-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Scotland:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bolivia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-09T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Liechtenstein, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Croatia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Haiti beat only very weak opponents and lost to all reasonably competitive ones; Scotland beat weak teams but also defeated Croatia and Poland and drew Portugal in competitive UEFA Nations League matches. Opponent strength calibration strips away the inflation in both teams' records and reveals Scotland has genuine competitive form while Haiti does not. Market odds (Scotland ~61%) support this reading. Confidence held at 0.65 due to missing h2h, lineup, and weather data, plus Haiti's home-schedu

Conclusion note

Opponent strength calibration clearly favors Scotland. Haiti's recent wins (vs New Zealand, Azerbaijan, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten) all came against very weak opposition; against any opponent of reasonable quality (Peru, Tunisia, USA, Saudi Arabia), Haiti consistently lost, and their best competitive result was a draw against Iceland. Scotland's wins against weak teams (Bolivia, Curaçao, Liechtenstein) are similarly padded, but Scotland also produced genuine quality results in the UEFA Nations League: a 1-0 win over Croatia, a 0-0 draw with Portugal, and a 2-1 win over Poland. Even their losses against strong sides (Ivory Coast 0-1, Japan 0-1) were narrow. Haiti's form is inflated by opponent quality variance; Scotland has proven they can compete with and beat top-level European opposition. The odds consensus (Scotland ~61%) aligns with this calibration. Confidence is moderated by absent h2h data, absent lineups, and Haiti's schedule-listed home status in Foxborough which may provide some crowd support.

Synthesis

All three perspectives unanimously favour Scotland (side B). Market consensus prices Scotland at ~61% with tightly clustered, stable odds. Recent form shows Scotland with 3 wins and 12 goals in their last 5, while Haiti's 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses record is inflated by one outlier 4-0 result against New Zealand. Opponent-strength calibration strips away both teams' wins over weak opposition and reveals Scotland's competitive UEFA Nations League results (beat Croatia and Poland, drew Portugal) versus Haiti's inability to beat any reasonably strong side. The main uncertainty is missing head-to-head, lineup and weather data, and Haiti's scheduled home status in Foxborough which may offer modest crowd support. These gaps prevent pushing confidence much above the consensus range. The most likely exact scorelines lean toward Scotland winning by one or two goals, with 0-2 slightly more probable than 0-1 given Scotland's tendency to score multiple goals in victories.

Reasoning summary: Three independent perspectives all pick side_b_win with confidences of 0.61–0.66. Market odds show a stable, lopsided Scotland price (~61%). Recent form favours Scotland's consistent scoring in wins over Haiti's low-output pattern outside one outlier. Opponent-strength calibration confirms Scotland has genuine competitive results against top European sides while Haiti has none. Averaged confidence of ~0.64 reflects strong agreement tempered by absent h2h, lineup and venue-context data, and Haiti