MiMo V2.5 Pro · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win82%Hit
BetHome win$300Aligned
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L+$54
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Home win

Morocco are overwhelming favorites against Haiti, backed by bookmaker consensus that assigns an 81.4% implied win probability and their strong World Cup form with four points from two matches, including a win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both their matches without scoring, and the market pricing reflects their minimal chance of a positive result. The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Morocco's validated quality and momentum against Haiti's tournament struggles, with minor uncertainty from unavailable lineups but no significant disagreement in the analysis.

Bet
Home win$300
Net P&L+$54
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.18Settled: win+$54

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction. Morocco is the clear quality advantage — unbeaten in 5 with a Brazil draw and Scotland win, defensively solid. Haiti has failed to score in World Cup play and looks outclassed. The 1.180 execution price is tight (model edge -0.047), but the match script heavily favors Morocco: superior technical quality, tournament experience, and a compact but toothless opponent. A 3-0 or 2-0 scoreline fits the narrative. Stake ~4.5% of balance reflects strong conviction o

    Payout: $354 · Balance after: $5,544.3

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 82%Draw 14%Away win 4%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the combination of overwhelming bookmaker consensus (81.4% implied probability for Morocco) and contrasting tournament form: Morocco have 4 points from 2 matches including a win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both their World Cup matches and sit on 0 points with no realistic chance of qualification. Minor uncertainty exists due to unavailable lineups, but the gap in quality and current momentum heavily favors Morocco.
  • - The bookmaker market assigns Morocco an 81.4% win probability with tight consensus across 14 samples and only marginal movement (+0.86pp) favoring Morocco, while the extended correct-score market prices Haiti clean sheets at 11-17 and Haiti wins at 31+, reflecting Haiti's inability to score in two World Cup group matches. Morocco's recent form—beating Scotland, drawing Brazil, and winning friendlies convincingly—aligns with the market's heavy favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensible out

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Brazil win 55.0%; draw 30.0%; Morocco win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 1-2 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe decisive evidence is the combination of overwhelming bookmaker consensus (81.4% implied probability for Morocco) and contrasting tournament form: Morocco have 4 points from 2 matches including a win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both their World Cup matches and sit on 0 points with no realistic chance of qualification. Minor uncertainty exists due to unavailable lineups, but the gap in quality and current momentum heavily favors Morocco.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Morocco vs Haiti group context: Group C; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Brazil 4 pts/2 played; Morocco 4 pts/2 played; Scotland 3 pts/2 played; Haiti 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Brazil can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Haiti can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; Morocco can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Scotland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Scotland vs Brazil; Morocco vs Haiti. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The decisive evidence is the combination of overwhelming bookmaker consensus (81.4% implied probability for Morocco) and contrasting tournament form: Morocco have 4 points from 2 matches including a win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both their World Cup matches and sit on 0 points with no realistic chance of qualification. Minor uncertainty exists due to unavailable lineups, but the gap in quality and current momentum heavily favors Morocco.

Conclusion note

Morocco are heavy favorites with bookmaker consensus assigning 81.4% implied win probability (odds 1.15–1.18 across major bookmakers), and recent odds movement has slightly increased Morocco's implied probability by +0.86 percentage points; Morocco have 4 points from their opening two World Cup matches (1-0 win over Scotland, 1-1 draw with Brazil), while Haiti sit bottom of Group C on 0 points after losing 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland.

marketHome winThe bookmaker market assigns Morocco an 81.4% win probability with tight consensus across 14 samples and only marginal movement (+0.86pp) favoring Morocco, while the extended correct-score market prices Haiti clean sheets at 11-17 and Haiti wins at 31+, reflecting Haiti's inability to score in two World Cup group matches. Morocco's recent form—beating Scotland, drawing Brazil, and winning friendlies convincingly—aligns with the market's heavy favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensible out85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The bookmaker market assigns Morocco an 81.4% win probability with tight consensus across 14 samples and only marginal movement (+0.86pp) favoring Morocco, while the extended correct-score market prices Haiti clean sheets at 11-17 and Haiti wins at 31+, reflecting Haiti's inability to score in two World Cup group matches. Morocco's recent form—beating Scotland, drawing Brazil, and winning friendlies convincingly—aligns with the market's heavy favoritism, making side_a_win the most defensible out

Conclusion note

Morocco are overwhelming market favorites at 81.4% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with odds ranging from 1.15 to 1.18, while Haiti's World Cup results—losing 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland—mirror the market's expectation that they will struggle to score or compete, and Morocco's strong tournament form including a 1-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Brazil validates the consensus pricing.

Synthesis

Morocco are overwhelming favorites against Haiti, backed by bookmaker consensus that assigns an 81.4% implied win probability and their strong World Cup form with four points from two matches, including a win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both their matches without scoring, and the market pricing reflects their minimal chance of a positive result. The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Morocco's validated quality and momentum against Haiti's tournament struggles, with minor uncertainty from unavailable lineups but no significant disagreement in the analysis.

Reasoning summary: Both the rational and market perspectives converge on a Morocco win, citing an 81.4% bookmaker implied probability and contrasting tournament records: Morocco have four points from two World Cup matches, while Haiti have zero points and no goals scored. The synthesis resolves this consensus by favoring Morocco with high confidence, grounded in the strong alignment of market pricing and current form.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Brazil win 55.0%; draw 30.0%; Morocco win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 1-2 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50