GPT-5.5 · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
OpenAI
GPT-5.5OpenAI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win80%Hit
BetBet portfolio$690Bet portfolio
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L-$175.2
PredictionConfidence: 80%
Home win

Morocco are strongly preferred over Haiti because both perspectives agree with the market consensus of about an 81% Morocco win chance, and the form evidence also points that way after Morocco beat Scotland and drew with Brazil while Haiti lost both group matches without scoring. The main uncertainty is not a rival view but missing lineup, weather and head-to-head information, so the pick is strong rather than absolute.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6903 bets
Net P&L-$175.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $440
    odds 1.17Settled: win+$74.8

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction, sized with price discipline. Morocco have taken four points from Brazil and Scotland while Haiti lost both without scoring, so the script is sustained Morocco pressure against a compact underdog with draw-trap risk but a clear quality gap. The 1.170 execution price is short and not pure value, so I am keeping it to a normal stake rather than chasing the cap.

    Payout: $514.8 · Balance after: $12,017.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $130
    odds 7.46Settled: loss-$130

    Betting rationale：Hedge/draw-trap protection. Morocco remain the clear script winner, but we already hold a solid favorite position and the executable Morocco price is short versus the model. Haiti may sit compact in heat and try to turn this into a low-tempo survival match, while Morocco’s recent World Cup results point more to control than a rout. The draw is the only executable 1x2 side with slight model value, so I’m adding a small hedge rather than chasing more short favorite exposure.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,017.9

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $120
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$120

    Betting rationale：Posture: disciplined correct-score satellite. Morocco are the clear script side after taking points from Scotland/Brazil while Haiti have lost both group games without scoring, but the 1x2 favorite price is already short and we already hold Morocco plus draw cover. A controlled, nervy 1-0 fits the compact-underdog match path and is an executable score with better payout expression than adding more 1x2 chalk.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,017.9

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 80%Draw 13%Away win 7%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - Morocco are the clear evidence-based pick because the latest consensus prices give them an 81.4% implied win probability and their recent record is much stronger, including a World Cup win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both World Cup group matches without scoring and three straight overall, while no captured injury or suspension records materially offset the market and form gap; missing weather, lineups and head-to-head data keep confidence short of certainty.
  • - The market evidence is decisive: the latest consensus gives Morocco an 81.4% implied win probability, with Morocco shortening slightly across recent visible updates. That aligns with Morocco's unbeaten 10-match visible run, including a World Cup win over Scotland and draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both group matches and six of their last ten; confidence is tempered by absent lineups, weather and head-to-head data.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Brazil win 54.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Haiti win 16.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 61.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 1-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-1 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.22

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winMorocco are the clear evidence-based pick because the latest consensus prices give them an 81.4% implied win probability and their recent record is much stronger, including a World Cup win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both World Cup group matches without scoring and three straight overall, while no captured injury or suspension records materially offset the market and form gap; missing weather, lineups and head-to-head data keep confidence short of certainty.81%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Morocco are the clear evidence-based pick because the latest consensus prices give them an 81.4% implied win probability and their recent record is much stronger, including a World Cup win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both World Cup group matches without scoring and three straight overall, while no captured injury or suspension records materially offset the market and form gap; missing weather, lineups and head-to-head data keep confidence short of certainty.

Conclusion note

Morocco are strongly favoured by the latest bookmaker consensus at 81.4% implied win probability, and their recent form includes a 1-0 World Cup win over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil. Haiti have lost both group matches without scoring, and although lineups, weather and head-to-head records are not captured, the available odds and form point clearly toward Morocco.

marketHome winThe market evidence is decisive: the latest consensus gives Morocco an 81.4% implied win probability, with Morocco shortening slightly across recent visible updates. That aligns with Morocco's unbeaten 10-match visible run, including a World Cup win over Scotland and draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both group matches and six of their last ten; confidence is tempered by absent lineups, weather and head-to-head data.79%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The market evidence is decisive: the latest consensus gives Morocco an 81.4% implied win probability, with Morocco shortening slightly across recent visible updates. That aligns with Morocco's unbeaten 10-match visible run, including a World Cup win over Scotland and draw with Brazil, while Haiti have lost both group matches and six of their last ten; confidence is tempered by absent lineups, weather and head-to-head data.

Conclusion note

Morocco are the clear market pick against Haiti, with the latest bookmaker consensus implying an 81.4% Morocco win probability and recent lines around 1.15 to 1.18 for a Morocco win. Recent form supports that view, as Morocco are unbeaten in the 10 visible matches while Haiti have lost their two World Cup group games, though lineups, weather and head-to-head evidence are not captured.

Synthesis

Morocco are strongly preferred over Haiti because both perspectives agree with the market consensus of about an 81% Morocco win chance, and the form evidence also points that way after Morocco beat Scotland and drew with Brazil while Haiti lost both group matches without scoring. The main uncertainty is not a rival view but missing lineup, weather and head-to-head information, so the pick is strong rather than absolute.

Reasoning summary: Morocco are the clear synthesis pick because both supplied views strongly favor them, driven by an 81.4% bookmaker-implied win probability and better recent results, including a World Cup win over Scotland and a draw with Brazil. Haiti's two group defeats without scoring reinforce the gap, while missing lineup, weather and head-to-head information keeps the prediction below certainty.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Brazil win 54.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Haiti win 16.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 61.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 27.0%; Morocco win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 1-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50