ERNIE 5.1 · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win81%Hit
BetHome win$800Aligned
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L-$212
PredictionConfidence: 81%
Home win

Morocco enter as overwhelming favorites with an 80.5% implied win probability, backed by an unbeaten run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches including a 1-0 World Cup victory over Scotland and a credible 1-1 draw with Brazil. Haiti, by contrast, have lost both World Cup group games 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland, scoring zero goals against top opposition, and have won only 1 of their last 5 fixtures. All three analytical perspectives—recent form, market odds, and squad availability—converge on a Morocco win with no injuries or suspensions affecting either side. The main uncertainty is whether Morocco can convert their dominance into multiple goals or will settle for a narrow win, but the evidence strongly favors a comfortable Morocco victory. A hypothesis for the match flow could be Morocco controlling possession from the start and Haiti sitting deep, with a goal likely coming in the second half when Haiti's defensive shape fatigues.

Bet
Home win$8003 bets
Net P&L-$212
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.18Settled: win+$54

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Match script: Morocco's tournament form is elite (4 pts from Scotland & Brazil), Haiti is broken (0 pts, conceded 4 to same opponents). Hot Atlanta conditions favor Morocco's technical possession game. Prediction 83% with 1-0 as top score. Already have $200 on Morocco at 1.170; adding $300 at Pinnacle 1.180 builds a $500 total position on the clear favorite. Slight negative edge (-0.017) but the form gap and draw risk (12%) are already priced in—this is portfolio con

    Payout: $354 · Balance after: $10,246.8

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $300
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction with score-line edge. Morocco's 85% win probability and top predicted score of 1-0 (22% model probability) vs Pinnacle's 7.500 odds (13.3% implied) gives a clear +8.7% edge on the correct score. Already have $500 on Morocco 1x2; adding $300 on 1-0 captures the specific script—Morocco should dominate a weak Haiti side and keep a clean sheet, as they did vs Scotland. This is a high-conviction satellite bet backed by model, form, and payout asymmetry.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,246.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.17Settled: win+$34

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. The script is vivid and one-directional: Morocco drew Brazil and beat Scotland in this tournament, while Haiti got thrashed 0-3 by Brazil and 0-1 by Scotland, scoring zero against top opposition. The model gives Morocco 81% win probability with 1-0 (22%) and 2-0 (18%) as the top scores — a controlled, second-half breakthrough narrative. Execution price at Pinnacle (1.170) offers a slight negative edge (-0.045), but the football story is so clear and the variance so l

    Payout: $234 · Balance after: $9,892.8

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 81%Draw 13%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus heavily favors Morocco at 80.5% with no injuries or suspensions on either side, and the form gap is consistent across both World Cup and friendly fixtures rather than being driven solely by opponent quality—Morocco drew with Norway and beat Madagascar and Burundi convincingly, while Haiti lost to Peru and drew with Iceland despite a 4-0 win over New Zealand, confirming a clear momentum advantage for Morocco that justifies the side A win prediction despite missing weather and l
  • - The market consensus clearly prices Morocco as the dominant favorite with an 80.5% implied win probability, and this aligns with the form evidence: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with wins over Brazil, Scotland, Zambia and others, while Haiti have lost 6 of 10 including 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland in the World Cup. The odds movement shows the market tightening further toward Morocco, and with no availability concerns for either side, the evidence strongly supports a Morocco win. The pa
  • - The odds consensus heavily favors Morocco (80.5% win probability), and recent form strongly supports this: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with a 1-0 win over Scotland in the World Cup, whereas Haiti have lost 6 of their last 10 including both World Cup fixtures. The squad availability perspective confirms zero injuries for both sides, which is a neutral factor that levels the field but does not alter the clear form and odds advantage Morocco hold. Missing head-to-head, weather, and lineup da

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Brazil win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Morocco win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 56.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.21

Meta thinking

  • Recent form trajectoryExamine Morocco's last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses; 12 goals scored, 2 conceded) versus Haiti's last 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses; 5 goals scored, 7 conceded). Focus on the contrast in World Cup group-stage results specifically, where Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 and drew Brazil 1-1, while Haiti lost to both Scotland 0-1 and Brazil 0-3. Assess whether the gap in competitive match momentum is consistent across all fixtures or driven by opponent quality.
  • Market odds consensusReview the 14 captured odds observations to identify the implied probability spread between Morocco and Haiti. Check whether the market pricing reflects a clear favorite or a tighter contest, and note any movement patterns across the observed odds. Use this as a calibration reference against the recent form evidence, given the participant's group-stage accuracy of 0.659 and high-confidence calibration of 0.714.
  • Squad availability riskBoth sides returned zero injury rows as of the snapshot time, indicating no reported squad disruptions for either Morocco or Haiti. Since lineups are not yet captured, the investigation angle is whether the clean injury slate for both teams levels the playing field, or whether the absence of injury data itself limits risk assessment. Consider this neutral given no captured absences for either side.

Tokens: 2958

Perspectives

Recent form trajectoryHome winThe odds consensus heavily favors Morocco at 80.5% with no injuries or suspensions on either side, and the form gap is consistent across both World Cup and friendly fixtures rather than being driven solely by opponent quality—Morocco drew with Norway and beat Madagascar and Burundi convincingly, while Haiti lost to Peru and drew with Iceland despite a 4-0 win over New Zealand, confirming a clear momentum advantage for Morocco that justifies the side A win prediction despite missing weather and l83%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 80.5%, draw 13.5%, side B win 6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-23T16:15:20Z -> 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.23pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 14 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15; william_hill side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.17, draw 6.75, side B 15; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 7, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.17, draw 7.4, side B 19.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus heavily favors Morocco at 80.5% with no injuries or suspensions on either side, and the form gap is consistent across both World Cup and friendly fixtures rather than being driven solely by opponent quality—Morocco drew with Norway and beat Madagascar and Burundi convincingly, while Haiti lost to Peru and drew with Iceland despite a 4-0 win over New Zealand, confirming a clear momentum advantage for Morocco that justifies the side A win prediction despite missing weather and l

Conclusion note

Morocco enter as heavy favorites with 80.5% implied win probability after an unbeaten run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (12 goals scored, 2 conceded), including a 1-0 victory over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil at the World Cup, while Haiti have managed only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 fixtures (6 goals scored, 7 conceded) and were beaten by both Scotland 0-1 and Brazil 0-3 in the group stage.

Market odds consensusHome winThe market consensus clearly prices Morocco as the dominant favorite with an 80.5% implied win probability, and this aligns with the form evidence: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with wins over Brazil, Scotland, Zambia and others, while Haiti have lost 6 of 10 including 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland in the World Cup. The odds movement shows the market tightening further toward Morocco, and with no availability concerns for either side, the evidence strongly supports a Morocco win. The pa78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds consensus

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 80.5%, draw 13.5%, side B win 6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-23T16:15:20Z -> 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.23pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 14 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15; william_hill side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.17, draw 6.75, side B 15; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 7, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.17, draw 7.4, side B 19.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The market consensus clearly prices Morocco as the dominant favorite with an 80.5% implied win probability, and this aligns with the form evidence: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with wins over Brazil, Scotland, Zambia and others, while Haiti have lost 6 of 10 including 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland in the World Cup. The odds movement shows the market tightening further toward Morocco, and with no availability concerns for either side, the evidence strongly supports a Morocco win. The pa

Conclusion note

Morocco are strong favorites at 80.5% implied probability across 14 bookmaker samples, with odds tightening slightly in their favor from 80.27% to 80.5% between the last two update points, while Haiti sit at only 6%. Morocco's recent form shows 6 wins and 4 draws in their last 10 matches including a credible 1-1 draw with Brazil, whereas Haiti have lost 6 of 10 including both World Cup group matches with zero goals scored, and no injuries or suspensions affect either squad.

Squad availability riskHome winThe odds consensus heavily favors Morocco (80.5% win probability), and recent form strongly supports this: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with a 1-0 win over Scotland in the World Cup, whereas Haiti have lost 6 of their last 10 including both World Cup fixtures. The squad availability perspective confirms zero injuries for both sides, which is a neutral factor that levels the field but does not alter the clear form and odds advantage Morocco hold. Missing head-to-head, weather, and lineup da82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 80.5%, draw 13.5%, side B win 6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-23T16:15:20Z -> 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.23pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 14 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15; william_hill side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.17, draw 6.75, side B 15; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 7, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.17, draw 7.4, side B 19.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus heavily favors Morocco (80.5% win probability), and recent form strongly supports this: Morocco are unbeaten in 10 matches with a 1-0 win over Scotland in the World Cup, whereas Haiti have lost 6 of their last 10 including both World Cup fixtures. The squad availability perspective confirms zero injuries for both sides, which is a neutral factor that levels the field but does not alter the clear form and odds advantage Morocco hold. Missing head-to-head, weather, and lineup da

Conclusion note

Morocco are strong favorites at 80.5% implied probability with odds of 1.17–1.18 across bookmakers, backed by dominant recent form of 7 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 matches including a 1-0 World Cup win over Scotland, while Haiti have lost both World Cup games so far (0-3 to Brazil, 0-1 to Scotland) and won only 2 of their last 10 matches; both teams report zero injuries and zero suspensions, so the clean squad availability slate is neutral and does not shift the advantage.

Synthesis

Morocco enter as overwhelming favorites with an 80.5% implied win probability, backed by an unbeaten run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches including a 1-0 World Cup victory over Scotland and a credible 1-1 draw with Brazil. Haiti, by contrast, have lost both World Cup group games 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland, scoring zero goals against top opposition, and have won only 1 of their last 5 fixtures. All three analytical perspectives—recent form, market odds, and squad availability—converge on a Morocco win with no injuries or suspensions affecting either side. The main uncertainty is whether Morocco can convert their dominance into multiple goals or will settle for a narrow win, but the evidence strongly favors a comfortable Morocco victory. A hypothesis for the match flow could be Morocco controlling possession from the start and Haiti sitting deep, with a goal likely coming in the second half when Haiti's defensive shape fatigues.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives unanimously predict a Morocco win with confidence ranging from 78% to 83%, supported by consistent form data showing Morocco unbeaten in their last 10 matches with 7 wins and 3 draws, while Haiti have lost 6 of 10 including both World Cup fixtures without scoring. The market odds consensus of 80.5% implied probability aligns with the form evidence, and squad availability is neutral with zero injuries on both sides. Recalled match previews confirm Morocco's 1-0 win over Sco

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Brazil win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Morocco win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Scotland win 18.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 56.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50