DeepSeek V4 Flash · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win80%Hit
BetHome win$220Aligned
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L-$31.2
PredictionConfidence: 80%
Home win

Morocco face Haiti in a Group C match where their superior recent form and common-opponent record against Brazil and Scotland make them clear favorites. Haiti have lost both group games without scoring, while Morocco are unbeaten in ten matches. The betting market strongly favors Morocco at around 80% win probability. Both analytical perspectives agree on a comfortable Morocco victory, likely with a clean sheet. Confidence is high given the consistency of the evidence.

Bet
Home win$2202 bets
Net P&L-$31.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $160
    odds 1.18Settled: win+$28.8

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, drew with Brazil, beat Scotland away, while Haiti have lost both group games 0-3 and 0-1 without scoring a single goal. The gulf in class, form, and tournament pressure is clear — Morocco need a win to seal progression, Haiti are already eliminated. Hot Atlanta conditions (30.9°C, low humidity) favour the more technical, fitter African side. The 1.180 price is short with a slight negative model edge, but the match s

    Payout: $188.8 · Balance after: $5,372.95

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $60
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Football posture: small satellite conviction bet. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, have conceded only 2 goals across their last 5 matches, and face a Haiti side that has scored 0 goals in two group games and is already eliminated. Atlanta's 305m altitude and a compact Haiti defense sitting deep points toward a controlled, low-scoring Moroccan win. The model's top score is 1-0 (14% probability) and the executable correct-score price (7.50, implied 13.3%) offers a slight edge. I already h

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,372.95

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 80%Draw 14%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - All 14 bookmakers price Morocco at 1.18–1.19 (implied ~80% after removing margin), with no movement between recent update windows, indicating a settled consensus. The draw (6.2–7.4) and Haiti win (15–19.25) probabilities are very low. The odds are consistent with Morocco's superior form, the absence of any injury or suspension concerns for either side, and the lack of any visible head-to-head data to challenge the market view. Confidence is moderate-high but tempered by the absence of confirmed
  • - The common-opponent comparison decisively favors Morocco: they took four points from Brazil (away draw) and Scotland (away win), while Haiti lost both matches without scoring. Morocco's broader form is also vastly superior—unbeaten in ten with wins over Norway, Paraguay, and Zambia—while Haiti have managed only two wins in ten. Odds reflect an overwhelming market belief in a Morocco victory. No suspensions or injuries are visible for either side that would alter this assessment. The strong direc

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.22

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisExamine the 13 captured odds observations to infer implied probabilities for each outcome and identify any significant deviations from a neutral assessment.
  • Recent form and common opponent comparisonCompare Morocco and Haiti's performances against shared World Cup opponents Brazil and Scotland, supplemented by overall recent results, to gauge relative strength without preset conclusions.

Tokens: 3911

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winAll 14 bookmakers price Morocco at 1.18–1.19 (implied ~80% after removing margin), with no movement between recent update windows, indicating a settled consensus. The draw (6.2–7.4) and Haiti win (15–19.25) probabilities are very low. The odds are consistent with Morocco's superior form, the absence of any injury or suspension concerns for either side, and the lack of any visible head-to-head data to challenge the market view. Confidence is moderate-high but tempered by the absence of confirmed72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:15:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 79.7%, draw 13.9%, side B win 6.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T06:00:13Z -> 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.18, draw 6.2, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.18, draw 6.5, side B 15; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.19, draw 7.4, side B 19.25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 6.05.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-24T12:12:32Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.9°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 30%, wind 2.3 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 79.7%, draw 13.9%, side B win 6.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T06:00:13Z -> 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.18, draw 6.2, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.18, draw 6.5, side B 15; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.19, draw 7.4, side B 19.25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 6.05.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. All 14 bookmakers price Morocco at 1.18–1.19 (implied ~80% after removing margin), with no movement between recent update windows, indicating a settled consensus. The draw (6.2–7.4) and Haiti win (15–19.25) probabilities are very low. The odds are consistent with Morocco's superior form, the absence of any injury or suspension concerns for either side, and the lack of any visible head-to-head data to challenge the market view. Confidence is moderate-high but tempered by the absence of confirmed

Conclusion note

The market odds across 14 bookmaker samples imply a 79.7% win probability for Morocco, with Haiti at only 6.4% and the draw at 13.9%, representing a massive deviation from a neutral one-third assessment. Morocco's recent form (unbeaten in 10, including a 1-0 World Cup win over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil) strongly supports the odds, while Haiti has lost both of its World Cup matches so far and won only 2 of its last 10 fixtures.

Recent form and common opponent comparisonHome winThe common-opponent comparison decisively favors Morocco: they took four points from Brazil (away draw) and Scotland (away win), while Haiti lost both matches without scoring. Morocco's broader form is also vastly superior—unbeaten in ten with wins over Norway, Paraguay, and Zambia—while Haiti have managed only two wins in ten. Odds reflect an overwhelming market belief in a Morocco victory. No suspensions or injuries are visible for either side that would alter this assessment. The strong direc82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and common opponent comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:15:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 79.7%, draw 13.9%, side B win 6.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T06:00:13Z -> 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.2 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 15; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.18, draw 6.2, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.18, draw 6.5, side B 15; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.19, draw 7.4, side B 19.25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 6.05.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-24T12:12:32Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.9°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 30%, wind 2.3 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Perspective: Recent form and common opponent comparison. Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil (away) and beat Scotland 1-0 (away); Haiti lost 0-3 to Brazil (away) and 0-1 to Scotland (home). Morocco unbeaten in 10 (7W 3D); Haiti 2W 2D 6L in last 10. Odds imply 79.7% Morocco win probability. Clear evidence supports Morocco.

  13. The common-opponent comparison decisively favors Morocco: they took four points from Brazil (away draw) and Scotland (away win), while Haiti lost both matches without scoring. Morocco's broader form is also vastly superior—unbeaten in ten with wins over Norway, Paraguay, and Zambia—while Haiti have managed only two wins in ten. Odds reflect an overwhelming market belief in a Morocco victory. No suspensions or injuries are visible for either side that would alter this assessment. The strong direc

Conclusion note

Morocco are strongly favored to beat Haiti based on common-opponent evidence against Brazil and Scotland, complemented by overall recent form and betting odds. Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil and beat Scotland 1-0, while Haiti lost 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Scotland, all in this same World Cup group stage. Morocco are unbeaten in ten matches across all competitions (seven wins, three draws), whereas Haiti have lost six of their last ten including both World Cup fixtures to date. Bookmaker consensus gives Morocco a 79.7% implied win probability, with representative 1X2 prices such as 1.18 for a Morocco win versus 15–15.5 for a Haiti win.

Synthesis

Morocco face Haiti in a Group C match where their superior recent form and common-opponent record against Brazil and Scotland make them clear favorites. Haiti have lost both group games without scoring, while Morocco are unbeaten in ten matches. The betting market strongly favors Morocco at around 80% win probability. Both analytical perspectives agree on a comfortable Morocco victory, likely with a clean sheet. Confidence is high given the consistency of the evidence.

Reasoning summary: Morocco's unbeaten streak and strong performances against Brazil (1-1) and Scotland (1-0) contrast sharply with Haiti's losses in both group matches (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-1 vs Scotland). Market odds imply a 79.7% win probability for Morocco, and common-opponent comparison decisively favors them. The prediction is for a Morocco win with high confidence.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50