DeepSeek V4 Flash · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win82%Hit
BetHome win$220Aligned
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L-$31.2
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Home win

Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C with extremely contrasting form and stakes. Morocco are unbeaten in ten matches, including a competitive draw with Brazil and a win over Scotland, and still have a qualification incentive. Haiti have lost both group games without scoring, sit bottom with 0 points, and are already eliminated from top-two contention. Both the rational analysis and the betting market strongly favour a Morocco victory, with consensus odds implying an 81% win probability. The consistent evidence across form, group context, and market pricing supports a Morocco win with high confidence.

Bet
Home win$2202 bets
Net P&L-$31.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $160
    odds 1.18Settled: win+$28.8

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, drew with Brazil, beat Scotland away, while Haiti have lost both group games 0-3 and 0-1 without scoring a single goal. The gulf in class, form, and tournament pressure is clear — Morocco need a win to seal progression, Haiti are already eliminated. Hot Atlanta conditions (30.9°C, low humidity) favour the more technical, fitter African side. The 1.180 price is short with a slight negative model edge, but the match s

    Payout: $188.8 · Balance after: $5,372.95

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $60
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Football posture: small satellite conviction bet. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, have conceded only 2 goals across their last 5 matches, and face a Haiti side that has scored 0 goals in two group games and is already eliminated. Atlanta's 305m altitude and a compact Haiti defense sitting deep points toward a controlled, low-scoring Moroccan win. The model's top score is 1-0 (14% probability) and the executable correct-score price (7.50, implied 13.3%) offers a slight edge. I already h

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,372.95

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 82%Draw 12%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - All available evidence points decisively toward a Morocco victory: the odds market heavily favours Morocco (~81% implied probability), Morocco's recent form is excellent (unbeaten in 10 with competitive World Cup results), Haiti's form is poor (2 wins in 10, both group losses), and the group context shows Haiti cannot advance while Morocco still has qualification at stake. No injury or suspension concerns affect either side.
  • - The odds consensus strongly favours Morocco (81.4%), and the supporting evidence—group table position (Morocco 4 pts, Haiti 0 pts), recent form disparity, and competitive results in this tournament—all point in the same direction. The lack of lineup or weather data adds minor uncertainty, but the market probability appears well-calibrated to the visible facts, justifying a Morocco win as the most defensible outcome.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winAll available evidence points decisively toward a Morocco victory: the odds market heavily favours Morocco (~81% implied probability), Morocco's recent form is excellent (unbeaten in 10 with competitive World Cup results), Haiti's form is poor (2 wins in 10, both group losses), and the group context shows Haiti cannot advance while Morocco still has qualification at stake. No injury or suspension concerns affect either side.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Morocco vs Haiti group context: Group C; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Brazil 4 pts/2 played; Morocco 4 pts/2 played; Scotland 3 pts/2 played; Haiti 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Brazil can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Haiti can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; Morocco can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Scotland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Scotland vs Brazil; Morocco vs Haiti. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Structured rational assessment for Morocco vs Haiti World Cup 2026 group stage: odds imply ~81% side A win probability with late movement favouring Morocco. Morocco undefeated in last 10 matches (6W 4D) including a draw with Brazil and a win over Scotland in this World Cup. Haiti lost both group matches (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-1 vs Scotland) and are eliminated from top-2 contention. No injury or suspension concerns for either side. All evidence points strongly toward a Morocco win.

  14. All available evidence points decisively toward a Morocco victory: the odds market heavily favours Morocco (~81% implied probability), Morocco's recent form is excellent (unbeaten in 10 with competitive World Cup results), Haiti's form is poor (2 wins in 10, both group losses), and the group context shows Haiti cannot advance while Morocco still has qualification at stake. No injury or suspension concerns affect either side.

Conclusion note

Morocco are strong favourites with consensus odds implying an 81.4% win probability and late movement favouring them further. Morocco are undefeated in their last 10 matches (6 wins, 4 draws) including a draw with Brazil and a win over Scotland in this World Cup, while Haiti have lost both group games (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-1 vs Scotland) and are already eliminated from top-two contention with 0 points.

marketHome winThe odds consensus strongly favours Morocco (81.4%), and the supporting evidence—group table position (Morocco 4 pts, Haiti 0 pts), recent form disparity, and competitive results in this tournament—all point in the same direction. The lack of lineup or weather data adds minor uncertainty, but the market probability appears well-calibrated to the visible facts, justifying a Morocco win as the most defensible outcome.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 81.4%, draw 13.1%, side B win 5.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T16:02:24Z -> 2026-06-24T18:00:43Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.86pp, draw -0.43pp, side B win -0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15 → side A 1.15 / draw 7.3 / side B 15.5; william_hill side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.5 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.17 / draw 7.5 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.15, draw 7.3, side B 15.5; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 6.5, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.17, draw 7.5, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.18, draw 7.6, side B 22. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 31, 0-2 76; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 36, 0-2 91; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; correct scores 0-0 17, 0-1 34, 0-2 81.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Morocco vs Haiti group context: Group C; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Brazil 4 pts/2 played; Morocco 4 pts/2 played; Scotland 3 pts/2 played; Haiti 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Brazil can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Haiti can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; Morocco can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Scotland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Scotland vs Brazil; Morocco vs Haiti. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Market perspective: Cross-checking odds for Morocco vs Haiti (World Cup 2026 Group C). Latest consensus: Morocco 81.4%, draw 13.1%, Haiti 5.5%. Odds have moved slightly in Morocco's favour since the previous update window. Group table shows Morocco (4 pts) competing for top spot while Haiti (0 pts) cannot reach top 2. Morocco's recent form (6W 4D in last 10, including draw vs Brazil and win vs Scotland) strongly outclasses Haiti's (2W 2D 6L, including 0-3 vs Brazil and 0-1 vs Scotland). No injur

  12. The odds consensus strongly favours Morocco (81.4%), and the supporting evidence—group table position (Morocco 4 pts, Haiti 0 pts), recent form disparity, and competitive results in this tournament—all point in the same direction. The lack of lineup or weather data adds minor uncertainty, but the market probability appears well-calibrated to the visible facts, justifying a Morocco win as the most defensible outcome.

Conclusion note

Morocco enter this Group C match as overwhelming favourites with bookmaker consensus pricing them at 81.4% implied probability (best odds ~1.15), while Haiti are at just 5.5%. Morocco's recent form is excellent (6 wins, 4 draws in the last 10, including a 1-0 win over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil in this group), whereas Haiti have lost both group matches without scoring (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-1 vs Scotland) and sit bottom with 0 points, already unable to reach the top two. No injury or suspension data contradicts the odds, and the slight shortening of Morocco's price in the latest update window further aligns with the on-pitch evidence.

Synthesis

Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C with extremely contrasting form and stakes. Morocco are unbeaten in ten matches, including a competitive draw with Brazil and a win over Scotland, and still have a qualification incentive. Haiti have lost both group games without scoring, sit bottom with 0 points, and are already eliminated from top-two contention. Both the rational analysis and the betting market strongly favour a Morocco victory, with consensus odds implying an 81% win probability. The consistent evidence across form, group context, and market pricing supports a Morocco win with high confidence.

Reasoning summary: Both perspective summaries favour a Morocco win, citing Morocco's strong recent form and Haiti's poor World Cup campaign. The market odds heavily imply a Morocco victory, and the group dynamics add further motivation. There is no disagreement among the perspectives. The recalled memory of earlier group matches reinforces Morocco's competitive level. The prediction is Morocco wins.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50