DeepSeek V4 Flash · Morocco vs Haiti

MoroccovsHaiti
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win80%Hit
BetHome win$220Aligned
Post-match result4-2
Net P&L-$31.2
PredictionConfidence: 80%
Home win

Morocco's strong World Cup form (unbeaten, four points) and Haiti's elimination with zero goals scored, combined with a clear market consensus (80.5% implied probability for Morocco), overwhelmingly point to a Morocco victory. Haiti have struggled defensively and lack attacking threat, while Morocco have shown resilience against Scotland and Brazil. The main uncertainty is the exact margin, but the gap in quality and tournament standing makes a home win the most likely outcome.

Bet
Home win$2202 bets
Net P&L-$31.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $160
    odds 1.18Settled: win+$28.8

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, drew with Brazil, beat Scotland away, while Haiti have lost both group games 0-3 and 0-1 without scoring a single goal. The gulf in class, form, and tournament pressure is clear — Morocco need a win to seal progression, Haiti are already eliminated. Hot Atlanta conditions (30.9°C, low humidity) favour the more technical, fitter African side. The 1.180 price is short with a slight negative model edge, but the match s

    Payout: $188.8 · Balance after: $5,372.95

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $60
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Football posture: small satellite conviction bet. Match script: Morocco are unbeaten in 10, have conceded only 2 goals across their last 5 matches, and face a Haiti side that has scored 0 goals in two group games and is already eliminated. Atlanta's 305m altitude and a compact Haiti defense sitting deep points toward a controlled, low-scoring Moroccan win. The model's top score is 1-0 (14% probability) and the executable correct-score price (7.50, implied 13.3%) offers a slight edge. I already h

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,372.95

Post-match result4-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 80%Draw 14%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market odds heavily favour Morocco (implied probability 80.5%) and the slight shortening movement (+0.23pp) confirms the direction. Performance evidence matches: Morocco have shown competitive World Cup results while Haiti have lost both group matches and cannot qualify for the knockout stage, reducing their motivation. No injuries, suspensions, head-to-head or weather data create counter-indications, so the odds gap is the decisive factor.
  • - Morocco's superior World Cup form (unbeaten, 4 points) aligns with their strong recent results and the odds market, which gives them an 80.5% win probability. Haiti have lost all four of their most recent competitive matches and are already unable to reach the top two in the group. The absence of head-to-head or weather data does not offset the clear gap in current form and tournament standing, making Morocco the clear favourite.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1
  • - Recall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, S
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.22

Meta thinking

  • Pre‑match market odds distributionAnalyze the 14 captured odds observations to derive the implied probabilities for Morocco win, draw, and Haiti win. This reveals the market consensus and whether it differs from the performance evidence.
  • Comparative World Cup performanceCompare the two teams' results in the 2026 World Cup: Morocco is unbeaten with a win and a draw, while Haiti has lost both matches. Assess how this measurable form difference relates to other available evidence.

Tokens: 4187

Perspectives

Pre‑match market odds distributionHome winThe market odds heavily favour Morocco (implied probability 80.5%) and the slight shortening movement (+0.23pp) confirms the direction. Performance evidence matches: Morocco have shown competitive World Cup results while Haiti have lost both group matches and cannot qualify for the knockout stage, reducing their motivation. No injuries, suspensions, head-to-head or weather data create counter-indications, so the odds gap is the decisive factor.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre‑match market odds distribution

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 80.5%, draw 13.5%, side B win 6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-23T16:15:20Z -> 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.23pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 14 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15; william_hill side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.17, draw 6.75, side B 15; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 7, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.17, draw 7.4, side B 19.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-24 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Morocco vs Haiti group context: Group C; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Brazil 4 pts/2 played; Morocco 4 pts/2 played; Scotland 3 pts/2 played; Haiti 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Brazil can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Haiti can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; Morocco can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Scotland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Scotland vs Brazil; Morocco vs Haiti. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Pre-match market odds perspective: 14 odds observations show Morocco implied win probability 80.5%, draw 13.5%, Haiti 6%. Slight movement +0.23pp towards Morocco in latest window. This aligns with recent form (Morocco beat Scotland, drew Brazil; Haiti lost to both) and group context (Haiti eliminated from top-2, Morocco needs win). Rankings unavailable but odds gap is decisive.

  14. The market odds heavily favour Morocco (implied probability 80.5%) and the slight shortening movement (+0.23pp) confirms the direction. Performance evidence matches: Morocco have shown competitive World Cup results while Haiti have lost both group matches and cannot qualify for the knockout stage, reducing their motivation. No injuries, suspensions, head-to-head or weather data create counter-indications, so the odds gap is the decisive factor.

Conclusion note

Morocco are overwhelming 80.5% favourites according to the 14-bookmaker consensus, with draw at 13.5% and Haiti win at 6%. Morocco's recent form includes a 1-0 World Cup win over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil, while Haiti lost to both sides and sit bottom of Group C with 0 points, already unable to reach the top two.

Comparative World Cup performanceHome winMorocco's superior World Cup form (unbeaten, 4 points) aligns with their strong recent results and the odds market, which gives them an 80.5% win probability. Haiti have lost all four of their most recent competitive matches and are already unable to reach the top two in the group. The absence of head-to-head or weather data does not offset the clear gap in current form and tournament standing, making Morocco the clear favourite.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Comparative World Cup performance

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Morocco vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T22:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 80.5%, draw 13.5%, side B win 6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-23T16:15:20Z -> 2026-06-23T20:03:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.23pp, draw -0.17pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.18 / draw 6.5 / side B 14 → side A 1.17 / draw 6.75 / side B 15; william_hill side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17 → side A 1.17 / draw 7 / side B 17; bet365 side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15 → side A 1.18 / draw 7 / side B 15. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.17, draw 6.75, side B 15; william_hill: side A 1.17, draw 7, side B 17; bet365: side A 1.18, draw 7, side B 15; marathonbet: side A 1.17, draw 7.4, side B 19.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 8.8.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-19T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T22:00:00Z. Morocco vs Haiti group context: Group C; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Brazil 4 pts/2 played; Morocco 4 pts/2 played; Scotland 3 pts/2 played; Haiti 0 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Brazil can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Haiti can finish from rank 3 to 4; points enumeration cannot reach first or second place; Morocco can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Scotland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Scotland vs Brazil; Morocco vs Haiti. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Morocco's superior World Cup form (unbeaten, 4 points) aligns with their strong recent results and the odds market, which gives them an 80.5% win probability. Haiti have lost all four of their most recent competitive matches and are already unable to reach the top two in the group. The absence of head-to-head or weather data does not offset the clear gap in current form and tournament standing, making Morocco the clear favourite.

Conclusion note

Morocco are unbeaten in the 2026 World Cup with a win over Scotland and a draw against Brazil, while Haiti have lost both their matches (0-3 vs Brazil, 0-1 vs Scotland) and sit bottom of Group C with zero points. Bookmaker consensus strongly supports Morocco at an 80.5% implied probability, with no injuries or suspensions reported for either side ahead of the match.

Synthesis

Morocco's strong World Cup form (unbeaten, four points) and Haiti's elimination with zero goals scored, combined with a clear market consensus (80.5% implied probability for Morocco), overwhelmingly point to a Morocco victory. Haiti have struggled defensively and lack attacking threat, while Morocco have shown resilience against Scotland and Brazil. The main uncertainty is the exact margin, but the gap in quality and tournament standing makes a home win the most likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: Both independent analyses agree that Morocco are heavy favourites based on their unbeaten record and Haiti's poor form and elimination from the group. The market odds heavily support Morocco, and no countervailing factors such as injuries or suspensions exist. The synthesis assigns an 80% win probability to Morocco, with a draw at 14% and a Haiti win at 6%.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.57. Probability distribution: Brazil win 57.0%; draw 25.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 2-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Haiti win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Haiti win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Scotland win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti 3-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Scotland vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: sco mar group_c_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Morocco win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Scotland win 17.0%; draw 20.0%; Morocco win 63.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Scotland 0-1 Morocco, Scotland 0-2 Morocco, Srelevance 0.50