Qwen3.7 Plus · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win72%Miss
BetHome win$910Aligned
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L-$910
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Home win

The United States enter this knockout tie at Levi's Stadium as clear favorites, backed by strong recent offensive form (11 goals in their last five matches, including convincing wins) and a market consensus that prices them around 68.5% to win. Bosnia & Herzegovina have been far less consistent, managing only 6 goals in the same span and suffering a heavy 1-4 defeat to Switzerland, alongside draws against Canada and Panama. While the USA have shown defensive vulnerabilities—conceding in four of their last five matches—Bosnia's own leaky backline (9 goals conceded recently) and uneven away form suggest they are unlikely to exploit those frailties consistently. Squad availability slightly favors Bosnia, who have no reported injuries, while the USA have Cristian Roldan listed as questionable, but this minor concern does not materially shift the balance. The decisive tradeoff is USA's superior attacking output and home advantage against Bosnia's inconsistent results and defensive issues, making a USA win the most defensible outcome despite the potential for an open, high-scoring game.

Bet
Home win$9103 bets
Net P&L-$910
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $630
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$630

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with portfolio reinforcement. Match script: USA at home in San Francisco, riding strong group form (8-4 goals, wins over Australia and Paraguay) against a Bosnia side that has shown defensive fragility (conceded 6 in 3 WC matches, heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland). The prediction model gives USA a 72% win probability, aligning closely with the executable Pinnacle odds of 1.390. With existing open positions on USA (total $280), adding another stake reinforces th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：USA are strong favorites at home in a knockout match at Levi's Stadium, with offensive momentum (8 goals in last 3 WC games) and a clear model edge (68% win probability). Bosnia are fragile on the road (1-4 to Switzerland, heavy defeats) and lack consistent away form. Although execution odds at 1.39 imply ~72% and leave a small negative edge, the football script—early USA pressure, home crowd, Bosnia's defensive vulnerability—justifies a moderate conviction stake on the home side. Sizing at ~1.5

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $110
    odds 1.42Settled: loss-$110

    Betting rationale：USA are strong favorites at home in a knockout match. Model gives 72% win probability vs execution implied ~70.4% at Pinnacle 1.420, a thin but positive edge. Already have $170 on side_a_win at 1.390; adding $110 at 1.420 improves average odds slightly. USA's attacking form (11 goals in 5) and Bosnia's defensive frailties (9 conceded) support a comfortable home win. Posture: favorite conviction with modest add-on sizing given the thin edge.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 72%Draw 16%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-1
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff is USA's superior attacking form and home advantage at Levi's Stadium against Bosnia's inconsistent recent results. USA's last five shows 3 wins with multiple goals scored, while Bosnia has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with less convincing offensive displays. The market pricing (1.36-1.42 for USA) reflects this gap, and while USA's defensive frailties (conceding in 4 of last 5) create upset potential, Bosnia's away form (1-4 loss to Switzerland, 1-1 draws) suggests th
  • - The market odds distribution shows a clear consensus favoring USA, with minimal divergence among bookmakers and only slight movement toward a draw or Bosnia win in the latest update. Combined with USA's stronger recent home form and Bosnia's uneven recent record, the most defensible 1X2 outcome from the odds evidence is a USA win, though the lack of head-to-head records and lineup detail keeps confidence below very high levels.
  • - From a squad-availability perspective, Bosnia & Herzegovina have a cleaner bill of health with zero recorded injuries, whereas USA have one questionable player in Cristian Roldan. However, the odds consensus still prices USA at roughly 68.5% implied win probability, and their recent World Cup form (wins over Australia and Paraguay) is stronger than Bosnia's mixed run. With no suspensions on either side and only a minor fitness doubt for a USA midfielder, the availability picture does not overtur

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Czech Republic win with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: South Korea win 33.0%; draw 32.0%; Czech Republic win 35.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Korea 1-1 Czech Repu
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Canada win 61.0%; draw 25.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Canada win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.24Log loss 1.83

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and goal-scoring trendsCompare the last five matches for USA and Bosnia & Herzegovina in terms of results, goals scored and conceded, and assess whether either side shows consistent offensive output or defensive vulnerability heading into the knockout stage.
  • Market odds distributionExamine the 12 captured odds observations to determine how the market prices USA versus Bosnia & Herzegovina, identifying any notable consensus or divergence across available lines without assuming a favored outcome.
  • Squad availability and injury impactReview the observed injury report noting USA has 1 recorded injury while Bosnia & Herzegovina has 0, and evaluate how the absence or fitness of key players could influence tactical options for either side.

Tokens: 3950

Perspectives

Recent form and goal-scoring trendsHome winThe decisive evidence tradeoff is USA's superior attacking form and home advantage at Levi's Stadium against Bosnia's inconsistent recent results. USA's last five shows 3 wins with multiple goals scored, while Bosnia has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with less convincing offensive displays. The market pricing (1.36-1.42 for USA) reflects this gap, and while USA's defensive frailties (conceding in 4 of last 5) create upset potential, Bosnia's away form (1-4 loss to Switzerland, 1-1 draws) suggests th72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal-scoring trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff is USA's superior attacking form and home advantage at Levi's Stadium against Bosnia's inconsistent recent results. USA's last five shows 3 wins with multiple goals scored, while Bosnia has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with less convincing offensive displays. The market pricing (1.36-1.42 for USA) reflects this gap, and while USA's defensive frailties (conceding in 4 of last 5) create upset potential, Bosnia's away form (1-4 loss to Switzerland, 1-1 draws) suggests th

Conclusion note

USA enter this knockout tie with strong recent offensive output, scoring 11 goals in their last five matches including 4-1 and 3-2 wins, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed only 6 goals in the same span and suffered a 1-4 defeat to Switzerland. Bookmaker consensus heavily favors the United States with an implied 68.5% win probability, and their defensive vulnerabilities (conceding 8 goals in the last five) are offset by Bosnia's own leaky backline which has allowed 9 goals in that period.

Market odds distributionHome winThe market odds distribution shows a clear consensus favoring USA, with minimal divergence among bookmakers and only slight movement toward a draw or Bosnia win in the latest update. Combined with USA's stronger recent home form and Bosnia's uneven recent record, the most defensible 1X2 outcome from the odds evidence is a USA win, though the lack of head-to-head records and lineup detail keeps confidence below very high levels.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds distribution

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market odds distribution shows a clear consensus favoring USA, with minimal divergence among bookmakers and only slight movement toward a draw or Bosnia win in the latest update. Combined with USA's stronger recent home form and Bosnia's uneven recent record, the most defensible 1X2 outcome from the odds evidence is a USA win, though the lack of head-to-head records and lineup detail keeps confidence below very high levels.

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus across 12 samples strongly prices USA as favorites for the knockout match at Levi's Stadium, with implied win probabilities around 68.5% versus 11.9% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and very tight pricing (side A lines mostly between 1.36 and 1.42). Recent form also leans toward the USA, who have won six of their last ten including two World Cup 2026 home wins, while Bosnia have mixed results with a heavy loss to Switzerland and draws against Canada and Panama.

Squad availability and injury impactHome winFrom a squad-availability perspective, Bosnia & Herzegovina have a cleaner bill of health with zero recorded injuries, whereas USA have one questionable player in Cristian Roldan. However, the odds consensus still prices USA at roughly 68.5% implied win probability, and their recent World Cup form (wins over Australia and Paraguay) is stronger than Bosnia's mixed run. With no suspensions on either side and only a minor fitness doubt for a USA midfielder, the availability picture does not overtur74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability and injury impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. From a squad-availability perspective, Bosnia & Herzegovina have a cleaner bill of health with zero recorded injuries, whereas USA have one questionable player in Cristian Roldan. However, the odds consensus still prices USA at roughly 68.5% implied win probability, and their recent World Cup form (wins over Australia and Paraguay) is stronger than Bosnia's mixed run. With no suspensions on either side and only a minor fitness doubt for a USA midfielder, the availability picture does not overtur

Conclusion note

USA are strong favorites at around 1.40 with Bosnia & Herzegovina near 7.0-8.4, and the only visible availability edge is that Bosnia have no reported injuries while USA have Cristian Roldan listed as questionable. That minor squad concern for the USA does not materially shift the market or the overall balance, so the home side remain the most defensible pick.

Synthesis

The United States enter this knockout tie at Levi's Stadium as clear favorites, backed by strong recent offensive form (11 goals in their last five matches, including convincing wins) and a market consensus that prices them around 68.5% to win. Bosnia & Herzegovina have been far less consistent, managing only 6 goals in the same span and suffering a heavy 1-4 defeat to Switzerland, alongside draws against Canada and Panama. While the USA have shown defensive vulnerabilities—conceding in four of their last five matches—Bosnia's own leaky backline (9 goals conceded recently) and uneven away form suggest they are unlikely to exploit those frailties consistently. Squad availability slightly favors Bosnia, who have no reported injuries, while the USA have Cristian Roldan listed as questionable, but this minor concern does not materially shift the balance. The decisive tradeoff is USA's superior attacking output and home advantage against Bosnia's inconsistent results and defensive issues, making a USA win the most defensible outcome despite the potential for an open, high-scoring game.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a USA win, with confidence levels ranging from 0.72 to 0.74, driven by the USA's superior recent goal-scoring form (11 goals in five matches) and home advantage at Levi's Stadium, contrasted with Bosnia's inconsistent results and defensive issues (9 goals conceded). Market odds strongly reinforce this view, with bookmakers pricing the USA at approximately 68.5% implied win probability and minimal divergence among samples. Squad availability presents a minor cou

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable editionRecall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Czech Republic win with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: South Korea win 33.0%; draw 32.0%; Czech Republic win 35.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Korea 1-1 Czech Repurelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Canada win 61.0%; draw 25.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Late editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Canada win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canadarelevance 0.50