Qwen3.7 Plus · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Late
PredictionHome win72%Miss
BetHome win$910Aligned
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L-$910
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Home win

The consensus across twelve bookmaker lines prices the United States as clear favorites with an implied 90-minute win probability around 70 percent, with only minimal divergence between the shortest and longest USA prices. Recent World Cup 2026 form supports this view: the USA have outscored their group opponents 8-4 with wins over Australia and Paraguay and only a narrow 2-3 loss to Türkiye, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have been more erratic, conceding six goals in three matches including a heavy 1-4 defeat to Switzerland. Venue splits reinforce the picture, with the USA dominant at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium and Bosnia struggling on the road, including heavy away defeats. Bosnia’s 1-1 draw with Canada in their opening match shows they can frustrate stronger sides, but their defensive fragility and the strength of market consensus make a USA victory the most defensible 1X2 outcome. The main uncertainty is the absence of confirmed lineups, head-to-head history and weather data, which limits confidence in the exact margin even though the directional call is clear.

Bet
Home win$9103 bets
Net P&L-$910
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $630
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$630

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with portfolio reinforcement. Match script: USA at home in San Francisco, riding strong group form (8-4 goals, wins over Australia and Paraguay) against a Bosnia side that has shown defensive fragility (conceded 6 in 3 WC matches, heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland). The prediction model gives USA a 72% win probability, aligning closely with the executable Pinnacle odds of 1.390. With existing open positions on USA (total $280), adding another stake reinforces th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：USA are strong favorites at home in a knockout match at Levi's Stadium, with offensive momentum (8 goals in last 3 WC games) and a clear model edge (68% win probability). Bosnia are fragile on the road (1-4 to Switzerland, heavy defeats) and lack consistent away form. Although execution odds at 1.39 imply ~72% and leave a small negative edge, the football script—early USA pressure, home crowd, Bosnia's defensive vulnerability—justifies a moderate conviction stake on the home side. Sizing at ~1.5

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $110
    odds 1.42Settled: loss-$110

    Betting rationale：USA are strong favorites at home in a knockout match. Model gives 72% win probability vs execution implied ~70.4% at Pinnacle 1.420, a thin but positive edge. Already have $170 on side_a_win at 1.390; adding $110 at 1.420 improves average odds slightly. USA's attacking form (11 goals in 5) and Bosnia's defensive frailties (9 conceded) support a comfortable home win. Posture: favorite conviction with modest add-on sizing given the thin edge.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,741.8

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 72%Draw 19%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #23-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the market odds distribution: 12 bookmakers converge on USA as clear favorites with implied probabilities near 70%, minimal divergence (Marathonbet at 1.38 vs 10bet at 1.35), and slight shortening of the USA price between the two visible update points. Bosnia's recent form (one win, one heavy loss, two draws in their last four) and USA's stronger run (including wins over Australia and Paraguay at this World Cup) support the market view, while the absence of captured inju
  • - Using the perspective of recent World Cup 2026 form and goal trends, the USA have a clear edge: they won two of their three group matches, outscored opponents 8-4, and only lost narrowly 2-3 to Türkiye away. Bosnia's group campaign was more erratic, with a heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland, a draw with Canada, and a 3-1 win over Qatar, totaling 5 goals for and 6 against. The odds consensus strongly favors the USA, and with no visible injuries or suspensions affecting either side, the balance of rece
  • - USA's home record in the last ten visible matches shows dominant performances with several high-scoring wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record includes two heavy defeats and only narrow draws, indicating a pronounced venue split. The odds market aligns with this pattern, pricing the USA as a clear favorite, so the most defensible 1X2 outcome is a USA win, though confidence is moderated by the lack of head-to-head, lineup and weather data.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Czech Republic win with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: South Korea win 33.0%; draw 32.0%; Czech Republic win 35.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Korea 1-1 Czech Repu
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Canada win 61.0%; draw 25.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Canada win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.18Log loss 1.66

Meta thinking

  • Market odds distribution across 12 observed linesExamine the captured pre-match odds to assess implied probabilities for USA, draw, and Bosnia & Herzegovina, checking for consensus or divergence among bookmakers in this knockout fixture.
  • Recent form and goal-scoring trends in World Cup 2026Compare both teams' results and goal differentials in their last three World Cup 2026 matches to evaluate offensive output, defensive stability, and momentum entering the knockout round.
  • Home vs away performance split in recent matchesAnalyze USA's home record and Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record from the visible recent fixtures to assess whether venue-listed home advantage or away struggles are reflected in captured results.

Tokens: 3567

Perspectives

Market odds distribution across 12 observed linesHome winThe decisive evidence is the market odds distribution: 12 bookmakers converge on USA as clear favorites with implied probabilities near 70%, minimal divergence (Marathonbet at 1.38 vs 10bet at 1.35), and slight shortening of the USA price between the two visible update points. Bosnia's recent form (one win, one heavy loss, two draws in their last four) and USA's stronger run (including wins over Australia and Paraguay at this World Cup) support the market view, while the absence of captured inju72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds distribution across 12 observed lines

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence is the market odds distribution: 12 bookmakers converge on USA as clear favorites with implied probabilities near 70%, minimal divergence (Marathonbet at 1.38 vs 10bet at 1.35), and slight shortening of the USA price between the two visible update points. Bosnia's recent form (one win, one heavy loss, two draws in their last four) and USA's stronger run (including wins over Australia and Paraguay at this World Cup) support the market view, while the absence of captured inju

Conclusion note

Across 12 observed bookmaker lines, the consensus implied probability heavily favors USA at 69.9% for a 90-minute win, with draw at 19% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 11.1%, and the latest updates show a slight drift toward USA (side A +0.41pp) while draw and side B both edged down. Representative lines such as 10bet (1.35/4.9/8.1), William Hill (1.35/4.8/8) and bet365 (1.36/5/8) show tight clustering around a short USA price, indicating strong bookmaker consensus in this knockout fixture despite no head-to-head or weather data being available.

Recent form and goal-scoring trends in World Cup 2026Home winUsing the perspective of recent World Cup 2026 form and goal trends, the USA have a clear edge: they won two of their three group matches, outscored opponents 8-4, and only lost narrowly 2-3 to Türkiye away. Bosnia's group campaign was more erratic, with a heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland, a draw with Canada, and a 3-1 win over Qatar, totaling 5 goals for and 6 against. The odds consensus strongly favors the USA, and with no visible injuries or suspensions affecting either side, the balance of rece72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal-scoring trends in World Cup 2026

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Using the perspective of recent World Cup 2026 form and goal trends, the USA have a clear edge: they won two of their three group matches, outscored opponents 8-4, and only lost narrowly 2-3 to Türkiye away. Bosnia's group campaign was more erratic, with a heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland, a draw with Canada, and a 3-1 win over Qatar, totaling 5 goals for and 6 against. The odds consensus strongly favors the USA, and with no visible injuries or suspensions affecting either side, the balance of rece

Conclusion note

The United States enter this knockout match as strong favorites with consensus implied win probability around 70% and recent bookmaker lines near 1.35, while Bosnia & Herzegovina are priced around 8.0. In their last three World Cup 2026 matches, the USA have scored eight goals (4-1 vs Paraguay, 2-0 vs Australia, 2-3 vs Türkiye) and conceded four, whereas Bosnia have scored five (1-1 vs Canada, 1-4 vs Switzerland, 3-1 vs Qatar) and conceded six, showing more defensive fragility and less consistent momentum.

Home vs away performance split in recent matchesHome winUSA's home record in the last ten visible matches shows dominant performances with several high-scoring wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record includes two heavy defeats and only narrow draws, indicating a pronounced venue split. The odds market aligns with this pattern, pricing the USA as a clear favorite, so the most defensible 1X2 outcome is a USA win, though confidence is moderated by the lack of head-to-head, lineup and weather data.68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Home vs away performance split in recent matches

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. USA's home record in the last ten visible matches shows dominant performances with several high-scoring wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record includes two heavy defeats and only narrow draws, indicating a pronounced venue split. The odds market aligns with this pattern, pricing the USA as a clear favorite, so the most defensible 1X2 outcome is a USA win, though confidence is moderated by the lack of head-to-head, lineup and weather data.

Conclusion note

The USA's recent home record is strong with multiple wins (including 4-1 vs Paraguay, 3-2 vs Senegal, 2-0 vs Australia) at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, while Bosnia & Herzegovina's away form shows clear struggles with heavy losses to Switzerland (1-4) and Germany (0-7) alongside draws. Bookmaker consensus strongly favors the USA at around 70% implied probability, reinforcing the home-venue advantage visible in their recent results.

Synthesis

The consensus across twelve bookmaker lines prices the United States as clear favorites with an implied 90-minute win probability around 70 percent, with only minimal divergence between the shortest and longest USA prices. Recent World Cup 2026 form supports this view: the USA have outscored their group opponents 8-4 with wins over Australia and Paraguay and only a narrow 2-3 loss to Türkiye, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have been more erratic, conceding six goals in three matches including a heavy 1-4 defeat to Switzerland. Venue splits reinforce the picture, with the USA dominant at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium and Bosnia struggling on the road, including heavy away defeats. Bosnia’s 1-1 draw with Canada in their opening match shows they can frustrate stronger sides, but their defensive fragility and the strength of market consensus make a USA victory the most defensible 1X2 outcome. The main uncertainty is the absence of confirmed lineups, head-to-head history and weather data, which limits confidence in the exact margin even though the directional call is clear.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives align on a USA win, with market odds, recent tournament form and home/away splits pointing in the same direction. The USA have been more consistent and prolific in attack, while Bosnia have shown defensive vulnerability and erratic away results. Bookmaker clustering near 1.35 for the USA reflects strong consensus, and the slight shortening of the USA price between updates confirms market conviction. Given the lack of head-to-head, lineup and weather data, confidence is hel

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable editionRecall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Czech Republic win with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: South Korea win 33.0%; draw 32.0%; Czech Republic win 35.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Korea 1-1 Czech Repurelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Canada win 61.0%; draw 25.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Late editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Canada win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canadarelevance 0.50