Qwen3.7 Max · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win70%Miss
BetHome win$960Aligned
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L-$960
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

The United States is strongly favored to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in this knockout round fixture. The decisive evidence stems from the overwhelming market pricing, which implies a 70 percent probability of a United States victory, alongside their potent attacking output in the World Cup group stage where they scored eight goals in three matches. While Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown resilience with draws in recent matches against weaker opposition, their heavy defeat to Switzerland exposes defensive vulnerabilities that the high-scoring American side is well-equipped to exploit. The tradeoff between the Bosnian draw-prone tendencies and the United States' high-scoring volatility tilts decisively toward the home side prevailing at the San Francisco Bay Area venue.

Bet
Home win$9603 bets
Net P&L-$960
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $400
    odds 1.42Settled: loss-$400

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with measured add-on. Match script: USA plays at home in Santa Clara in a knockout match with their attack in strong form (4-1 vs Paraguay, 2-0 vs Australia). Bosnia showed defensive fragility in their 1-4 collapse against Switzerland and have drawn 3 of 5 recent matches, suggesting a compact but limited side that may park the bus. The model's 68% USA win probability and top score predictions (2-0, 2-1, 1-0) align with a controlled home victory. Although exe

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,359.48

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with moderate stake despite thin negative edge. Match script: USA at home in a World Cup knockout with strong attacking form (2.4 goals/game avg, beat Paraguay 4-1, Australia 2-0), while Bosnia showed defensive fragility in their 4-1 collapse against Switzerland and are prone to draws against weaker opposition. The Levi's Stadium crowd and knockout pressure favor the hosts. Model predicts 68% USA win probability and top scores of 2-0, 1-0, 2-1. At 1.39 execu

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,359.48

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $260
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$260

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with portfolio adjustment. Match script: USA enters this knockout tie as the clear home favorite with strong attacking output (8 goals in 3 WC games) and market pricing implying ~70% win probability. Bosnia showed resilience in draws vs weaker sides but was exposed defensively in a 1-4 loss to Switzerland, suggesting vulnerability to USA's tempo and set pieces at Levi's Stadium. Existing open positions already have $700 on side_a_win at solid prices; adding

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,359.48

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 18%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #33-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence for this prediction stems from the overwhelming market pricing structure, which implies a 69.9 percent probability of a United States win and offers odds as short as 1.35 across multiple major bookmakers. While Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown resilience with draws in recent matches, the slight market movement further backing the United States, combined with their two World Cup group stage victories, justifies selecting the home side with a confidence level aligned to the i
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between the USA's high-scoring volatility, which has produced both dominant wins and defensive lapses, and Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent draw tendency, which appears linked to weaker opposition rather than a reliable ability to contain elite attacks. Odds consensus at nearly 70% for a USA win, combined with Bosnia's heavy defeats to Switzerland and Germany in competitive fixtures, tilts the evidence toward the USA prevailing despite the match volatility flagged by recent
  • - From the World Cup group stage versus friendly form perspective, USA clearly elevated their performance from disappointing 2026 friendlies (1W, 3L, conceding 11 goals) to a productive group stage (2W, 1L, +4 goal difference), scoring eight goals in three matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina's group stage record (1W, 1D, 1L, -1 goal difference) was better than their scoreless pre-tournament friendlies but less convincing than the American surge, and their heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland exposed defensive

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 51.5%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 21.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: Canada win 48.0%; draw 30.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ca
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.18Log loss 1.71

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesExamine the 12 captured pre-match odds records to assess the betting market's implied probabilities and pricing structure for this knockout round fixture.
  • Recent Goal Trends and Match VolatilityAnalyze the recent five-match records for both sides, focusing on the high-scoring nature of the USA's recent games compared to the frequent draws in Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent outings.
  • World Cup Group Stage versus Friendly FormCompare the performance and results of both teams specifically during the 2026 World Cup group stage matches against their pre-tournament friendly results to evaluate tournament-specific form.

Tokens: 2908

Perspectives

Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesHome winThe decisive evidence for this prediction stems from the overwhelming market pricing structure, which implies a 69.9 percent probability of a United States win and offers odds as short as 1.35 across multiple major bookmakers. While Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown resilience with draws in recent matches, the slight market movement further backing the United States, combined with their two World Cup group stage victories, justifies selecting the home side with a confidence level aligned to the i70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds and Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence for this prediction stems from the overwhelming market pricing structure, which implies a 69.9 percent probability of a United States win and offers odds as short as 1.35 across multiple major bookmakers. While Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown resilience with draws in recent matches, the slight market movement further backing the United States, combined with their two World Cup group stage victories, justifies selecting the home side with a confidence level aligned to the i

Conclusion note

The betting market strongly favors the United States, with consensus implied probabilities assigning them nearly a 70 percent chance of victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina in this knockout round fixture. Representative bookmaker odds consistently price the United States around 1.35, reflecting solid market confidence in the schedule-listed home side despite some mixed recent friendly results.

Recent Goal Trends and Match VolatilityHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between the USA's high-scoring volatility, which has produced both dominant wins and defensive lapses, and Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent draw tendency, which appears linked to weaker opposition rather than a reliable ability to contain elite attacks. Odds consensus at nearly 70% for a USA win, combined with Bosnia's heavy defeats to Switzerland and Germany in competitive fixtures, tilts the evidence toward the USA prevailing despite the match volatility flagged by recent68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Goal Trends and Match Volatility

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between the USA's high-scoring volatility, which has produced both dominant wins and defensive lapses, and Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent draw tendency, which appears linked to weaker opposition rather than a reliable ability to contain elite attacks. Odds consensus at nearly 70% for a USA win, combined with Bosnia's heavy defeats to Switzerland and Germany in competitive fixtures, tilts the evidence toward the USA prevailing despite the match volatility flagged by recent

Conclusion note

Bookmakers strongly favor the USA at roughly 1.35 (69.9% implied probability), reflecting their potent attacking output in recent matches where four of their last five games produced three or more total goals, including World Cup wins of 2-0 over Australia and 4-1 over Paraguay. Bosnia & Herzegovina have drawn three of their last five matches, but those stalemates came against Canada, Panama, and FYR Macedonia, while against stronger World Cup opposition they lost 1-4 to Switzerland, suggesting their draw-prone pattern may not hold against a high-scoring USA side in a knockout setting at a San Francisco Bay Area venue.

World Cup Group Stage versus Friendly FormHome winFrom the World Cup group stage versus friendly form perspective, USA clearly elevated their performance from disappointing 2026 friendlies (1W, 3L, conceding 11 goals) to a productive group stage (2W, 1L, +4 goal difference), scoring eight goals in three matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina's group stage record (1W, 1D, 1L, -1 goal difference) was better than their scoreless pre-tournament friendlies but less convincing than the American surge, and their heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland exposed defensive72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    World Cup Group Stage versus Friendly Form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.9%, draw 19%, side B win 11.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z -> 2026-07-01T20:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.41pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win -0.21pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.9 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8 → side A 1.35 / draw 4.8 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.35, draw 4.9, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.35, draw 4.8, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.38, draw 5.3, side B 8.9. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 19, 0-2 46; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 15, 0-1 21, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. From the World Cup group stage versus friendly form perspective, USA clearly elevated their performance from disappointing 2026 friendlies (1W, 3L, conceding 11 goals) to a productive group stage (2W, 1L, +4 goal difference), scoring eight goals in three matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina's group stage record (1W, 1D, 1L, -1 goal difference) was better than their scoreless pre-tournament friendlies but less convincing than the American surge, and their heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland exposed defensive

Conclusion note

USA showed markedly stronger form in the 2026 World Cup group stage (two wins, one loss with eight goals scored) compared to their poor pre-tournament 2026 friendlies (one win, three losses), while Bosnia & Herzegovina managed only one win, one draw and one loss in the group stage after two goalless draws in pre-tournament friendlies. Bookmaker consensus strongly favors USA at roughly 70% implied probability, reflecting their superior tournament-specific attacking output and home-soil venue advantage in Santa Clara.

Synthesis

The United States is strongly favored to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in this knockout round fixture. The decisive evidence stems from the overwhelming market pricing, which implies a 70 percent probability of a United States victory, alongside their potent attacking output in the World Cup group stage where they scored eight goals in three matches. While Bosnia and Herzegovina has shown resilience with draws in recent matches against weaker opposition, their heavy defeat to Switzerland exposes defensive vulnerabilities that the high-scoring American side is well-equipped to exploit. The tradeoff between the Bosnian draw-prone tendencies and the United States' high-scoring volatility tilts decisively toward the home side prevailing at the San Francisco Bay Area venue.

Reasoning summary: All analytical perspectives converge on a United States victory, driven by strong market consensus and superior tournament-specific form. The United States elevated their performance significantly from disappointing pre-tournament friendlies to a productive group stage, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina's defensive frailties were exposed against elite opposition. Although match volatility and the Bosnian tendency to draw against mid-tier teams introduce some uncertainty, the weight of evidence rega

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 51.5%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 21.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Late editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canadarelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Preview editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.48. Probability distribution: Canada win 48.0%; draw 30.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Carelevance 0.50