GLM-5.1 · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win68%Miss
BetBet portfolio$240Reverse
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L+$152
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

All three perspectives agree on a USA victory. The bookmaker consensus consistently prices USA around 1.36–1.42, implying a 68.5% win probability, with minimal drift over the monitoring window indicating stable market confidence. USA's recent attacking output of 2.4 goals per match substantially exceeds Bosnia & Herzegovina's 1.0, and Bosnia's record against strong opposition includes heavy defeats to Germany and Switzerland that expose a significant quality gap. Cristian Roldan's questionable status and 21 km/h wind at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara introduce moderate uncertainty—wind may disrupt crossing and set-piece delivery for both sides equally—but these factors do not override the clear form and odds advantage for USA. The draw probability of 20% reflects USA's defensive leakage of 1.6 goals conceded per match and the potential for wind-related disruption, while Bosnia & Herzegovina's 12% win probability aligns with their poor recent record and limited attacking threat against top-level opponents.

Bet
Bet portfolio$2403 bets
Net P&L+$152
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $80
    odds 4.90Settled: win+$312

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap satellite posture. USA is the rightful favorite but execution price 1.390 carries -4.9% model edge — the market fully agrees and overprices them. The only positive execution edge is draw +1.6% at 4.900 Pinnacle. Bosnia is draw-prone (2 draws in 5, grinds low-scoring stalemates against better sides), USA has defensive volatility (conceded 3 vs Türkiye, 2 vs Germany), and knockout pressure on the home side amplifies the stalemate risk. A small draw satellite at ~5:1 payout captures a rea

    Payout: $392 · Balance after: $7,925.8

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 9.00Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset satellite at 9.000 — only execution side with positive model edge (+0.009). Already hold a draw hedge ($80 at 4.900), so this Bosnia shot diversifies the position: draw covers stalemate, Bosnia covers the shock. USA is the rightful favorite but has shown vulnerability (losses to Türkiye 2-3 and Germany 1-2), concedes 1.6 goals/match, and 21 km/h wind plus Roldan's questionable status inject match-script uncertainty. At 9.000, a $80 satellite yields $720 if Bosnia pulls the knock

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,925.8

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $80
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Satellite correct-score bet on 2-0, the model's top predicted scoreline (14%). USA at Levi's Stadium already won 2-0 vs Australia and 4-1 vs Paraguay at home; Bosnia conceded 4 to Switzerland and 7 to Germany vs stronger sides. USA's home knockout pressure and clean-sheet potential point to a controlled 2-0. Existing draw and Bosnia positions hedge chaos; this 2-0 CS at 5.750 adds a targeted narrative expressing USA's likely dominant home performance at proper satellite sizing (~1% of balance).

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,925.8

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 20%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market consensus across 12 bookmaker samples consistently prices USA around 1.36–1.42 (implied ~68.5% win probability) with minimal movement over four hours, indicating strong and stable confidence in a USA victory. Bosnia & Herzegovina is priced at 6.4–8.4 across bookmakers (~11.9% implied), reflecting their poor recent form and heavy losses. The slight drift of −0.57pp for USA and +0.37pp for Bosnia & Herzegovina is too small to undermine the overall market signal. USA's mixed 5-5 recent f
  • - USA's attacking edge over Bosnia is substantial: 2.4 goals per match versus 1.0, and Bosnia's conservative approach collapses against strong teams. USA's defensive leakage (1.6 conceded per match) introduces volatility, but given Bosnia's poor record against top opposition, the scoring differential and home venue at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara under clear conditions make a USA win the most defensible outcome. Confidence is moderated by USA's defensive inconsistency and the absence of head-to-h
  • - The odds consensus firmly favors USA at 68.5% with minimal movement, and USA's World Cup results (wins over Australia and Paraguay) contrast with Bosnia's poor tournament and friendly record including multiple heavy defeats. The 21 km/h wind at Santa Clara is a visible factor that could affect aerial play and set-piece accuracy for both teams, not uniquely USA, and Roldan's questionable status is a single-midfielder concern rather than a lineup disruption. These conditions introduce moderate unc

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 59.0%; draw 26.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia &
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.12Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • Market odds implied assessmentAnalyze the 12 captured odds observations to understand implied win/draw/loss probabilities and market confidence levels for this knockout round 32 match between USA and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
  • Recent form and scoring patternsUSA's last 5 matches show high-scoring volatility (2 wins, 2 losses, scoring 2-4-3 but conceding 3-2-1), while Bosnia has 3 draws with modest scoring output; investigate whether USA's attacking edge compensates for defensive leakage against Bosnia's conservative approach.
  • Injury and wind-affected conditionsUSA carries 1 reported injury with lineups still unavailable; Santa Clara's 21 km/h wind at Levi's Stadium may influence crossing accuracy and set-piece effectiveness, potentially neutralizing some of USA's home-venue attacking advantages.

Tokens: 2677

Perspectives

Market odds implied assessmentHome winThe market consensus across 12 bookmaker samples consistently prices USA around 1.36–1.42 (implied ~68.5% win probability) with minimal movement over four hours, indicating strong and stable confidence in a USA victory. Bosnia & Herzegovina is priced at 6.4–8.4 across bookmakers (~11.9% implied), reflecting their poor recent form and heavy losses. The slight drift of −0.57pp for USA and +0.37pp for Bosnia & Herzegovina is too small to undermine the overall market signal. USA's mixed 5-5 recent f68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market consensus across 12 bookmaker samples consistently prices USA around 1.36–1.42 (implied ~68.5% win probability) with minimal movement over four hours, indicating strong and stable confidence in a USA victory. Bosnia & Herzegovina is priced at 6.4–8.4 across bookmakers (~11.9% implied), reflecting their poor recent form and heavy losses. The slight drift of −0.57pp for USA and +0.37pp for Bosnia & Herzegovina is too small to undermine the overall market signal. USA's mixed 5-5 recent f

Conclusion note

The 12 captured bookmaker odds observations imply a 68.5% win probability for USA against Bosnia & Herzegovina, with draw at 19.7% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 11.9%; across 11 update points the consensus shifted only marginally (USA −0.57pp, Bosnia & Herzegovina +0.37pp), indicating stable market confidence in USA as the strong favorite despite a slight drift toward the underdog. USA's mixed recent form of five wins and five losses and one questionable injury to Cristian Roldan temper full confidence, but Bosnia & Herzegovina's poor record of one win, three draws and six losses including heavy defeats supports the market's underdog pricing.

Recent form and scoring patternsHome winUSA's attacking edge over Bosnia is substantial: 2.4 goals per match versus 1.0, and Bosnia's conservative approach collapses against strong teams. USA's defensive leakage (1.6 conceded per match) introduces volatility, but given Bosnia's poor record against top opposition, the scoring differential and home venue at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara under clear conditions make a USA win the most defensible outcome. Confidence is moderated by USA's defensive inconsistency and the absence of head-to-h70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and scoring patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. USA's attacking edge over Bosnia is substantial: 2.4 goals per match versus 1.0, and Bosnia's conservative approach collapses against strong teams. USA's defensive leakage (1.6 conceded per match) introduces volatility, but given Bosnia's poor record against top opposition, the scoring differential and home venue at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara under clear conditions make a USA win the most defensible outcome. Confidence is moderated by USA's defensive inconsistency and the absence of head-to-h

Conclusion note

USA's recent form shows strong attacking output, scoring 12 goals across their last five matches despite conceding 8, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have scored only 5 in their last five with three draws against moderate opposition; bookmaker consensus assigns USA a 68.5% win probability, and Bosnia have conceded heavily against stronger sides such as Germany (0-7) and Switzerland (1-4).

Injury and wind-affected conditionsHome winThe odds consensus firmly favors USA at 68.5% with minimal movement, and USA's World Cup results (wins over Australia and Paraguay) contrast with Bosnia's poor tournament and friendly record including multiple heavy defeats. The 21 km/h wind at Santa Clara is a visible factor that could affect aerial play and set-piece accuracy for both teams, not uniquely USA, and Roldan's questionable status is a single-midfielder concern rather than a lineup disruption. These conditions introduce moderate unc65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury and wind-affected conditions

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-07-01T01:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-07-01T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA injuries/availability: Cristian Roldan (MF, #17) status questionable.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.5%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T04:02:18Z -> 2026-07-01T08:15:14Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.57pp, draw +0.2pp, side B win +0.37pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.8 / side B 6.4; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.8, side B 6.4; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.6, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.41, draw 5.05, side B 8.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-07-01T12:12:53Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 48%, wind 21 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The odds consensus firmly favors USA at 68.5% with minimal movement, and USA's World Cup results (wins over Australia and Paraguay) contrast with Bosnia's poor tournament and friendly record including multiple heavy defeats. The 21 km/h wind at Santa Clara is a visible factor that could affect aerial play and set-piece accuracy for both teams, not uniquely USA, and Roldan's questionable status is a single-midfielder concern rather than a lineup disruption. These conditions introduce moderate unc

Conclusion note

USA remains the strong bookmaker favorite at 68.5% implied probability despite Cristian Roldan's questionable status and 21 km/h wind at Levi's Stadium, which may modestly disrupt crossing and set-piece delivery for both sides rather than specifically undermining USA's attacking edge. Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent World Cup form includes a heavy 1-4 loss to Switzerland and a 0-7 friendly defeat to Germany, suggesting a significant quality gap that wind and one questionable midfielder do not override.

Synthesis

All three perspectives agree on a USA victory. The bookmaker consensus consistently prices USA around 1.36–1.42, implying a 68.5% win probability, with minimal drift over the monitoring window indicating stable market confidence. USA's recent attacking output of 2.4 goals per match substantially exceeds Bosnia & Herzegovina's 1.0, and Bosnia's record against strong opposition includes heavy defeats to Germany and Switzerland that expose a significant quality gap. Cristian Roldan's questionable status and 21 km/h wind at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara introduce moderate uncertainty—wind may disrupt crossing and set-piece delivery for both sides equally—but these factors do not override the clear form and odds advantage for USA. The draw probability of 20% reflects USA's defensive leakage of 1.6 goals conceded per match and the potential for wind-related disruption, while Bosnia & Herzegovina's 12% win probability aligns with their poor recent record and limited attacking threat against top-level opponents.

Reasoning summary: The market, form, and condition perspectives all converge on a USA win at roughly 0.68 confidence. Bookmaker odds imply 68.5% for USA with stable pricing across 12 observations. USA's scoring rate of 2.4 goals per match dwarfs Bosnia & Herzegovina's 1.0, and Bosnia's heavy losses to Germany and Switzerland confirm a quality gap. Roldan's questionable availability and 21 km/h wind at Santa Clara modestly reduce certainty but affect both teams rather than uniquely undermining USA. The final probab

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Preview editionRecall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 59.0%; draw 26.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia & relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50