GLM-5.1 · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win67%Miss
BetBet portfolio$240Reverse
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L+$152
PredictionConfidence: 67%
Home win

All three perspectives — market odds, recent competitive form, and venue context — converge on a USA win. Bookmakers price USA at roughly 69% across 12 samples with tight pricing between 1.36 and 1.41, while Bosnia & Herzegovina sits at 6.8–8.7 with wider divergence among bookmakers. USA's recent five-match record features three high-scoring wins averaging 2.4 goals scored, whereas Bosnia's five-match form is draw-prone and low-scoring at roughly 1.2 goals per match, with a heavy 1-4 loss also on record. The home-country setting at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara adds a measurable crowd-support factor, and USA's broader 10-match sample shows six wins including home World Cup victories, compared to Bosnia's two wins and six losses in ten. The main uncertainty stems from USA's defensive volatility — two narrow defeats conceding two or three goals — and the absence of head-to-head data, which allows a modest draw probability reflecting Bosnia's tendency to grind out low-scoring stalemates against stronger opponents. Bosnia's past defeats to Switzerland and Canada in group-stage forecasts corroborate their struggles against quality sides, but do not guarantee a one-sided outcome here.

Bet
Bet portfolio$2403 bets
Net P&L+$152
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $80
    odds 4.90Settled: win+$312

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap satellite posture. USA is the rightful favorite but execution price 1.390 carries -4.9% model edge — the market fully agrees and overprices them. The only positive execution edge is draw +1.6% at 4.900 Pinnacle. Bosnia is draw-prone (2 draws in 5, grinds low-scoring stalemates against better sides), USA has defensive volatility (conceded 3 vs Türkiye, 2 vs Germany), and knockout pressure on the home side amplifies the stalemate risk. A small draw satellite at ~5:1 payout captures a rea

    Payout: $392 · Balance after: $7,925.8

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 9.00Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset satellite at 9.000 — only execution side with positive model edge (+0.009). Already hold a draw hedge ($80 at 4.900), so this Bosnia shot diversifies the position: draw covers stalemate, Bosnia covers the shock. USA is the rightful favorite but has shown vulnerability (losses to Türkiye 2-3 and Germany 1-2), concedes 1.6 goals/match, and 21 km/h wind plus Roldan's questionable status inject match-script uncertainty. At 9.000, a $80 satellite yields $720 if Bosnia pulls the knock

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,925.8

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $80
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Satellite correct-score bet on 2-0, the model's top predicted scoreline (14%). USA at Levi's Stadium already won 2-0 vs Australia and 4-1 vs Paraguay at home; Bosnia conceded 4 to Switzerland and 7 to Germany vs stronger sides. USA's home knockout pressure and clean-sheet potential point to a controlled 2-0. Existing draw and Bosnia positions hedge chaos; this 2-0 CS at 5.750 adds a targeted narrative expressing USA's likely dominant home performance at proper satellite sizing (~1% of balance).

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,925.8

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 67%Draw 22%Away win 11%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The market consensus from 12 bookmakers is firmly aligned on a USA win at roughly 69% implied probability, with a very narrow spread of just 0.05 across the USA win line (1.36 to 1.41), signalling tight and confident pricing. The slight drift toward Bosnia in the latest update (+0.34pp on Bosnia, -0.35pp on USA) is minimal and does not alter the strong consensus. Bosnia's wider odds spread (6.8–8.7) shows more bookmaker disagreement on their upset potential, but all samples still price them well
  • - Comparing recent competitive form across five matches each, USA averages roughly 2.4 goals scored and produces volatile but decisive results with three wins, whereas Bosnia averages only about 1.2 goals scored and leans toward low-scoring draws, suggesting USA's attacking output should outweigh Bosnia's defensive caution in a knockout setting; the 68.9% bookmaker consensus for a USA win aligns with this form gap, though USA's own defensive volatility and the absence of head-to-head data temper c
  • - The captured venue data confirms USA is playing in their home country at a large low-altitude stadium, constituting a genuine home-support factor rather than just a schedule label. Combined with strong odds consensus favoring USA at 68.9% and USA's superior recent form compared to Bosnia's poor results against quality opponents, the evidence supports a USA win. Confidence is moderated by the absence of head-to-head records, lineups, and weather data.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 59.0%; draw 26.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia &
  • - Recall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiye
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.07Log loss 1.51

Meta thinking

  • market oddsInvestigate the 12 observed pre-match odds to assess implied probability consensus and spread between USA and Bosnia & Herzegovina, noting whether the market shows strong divergence or tight pricing for this knockout encounter.
  • recent competitive formCompare the five visible recent matches for each side: USA shows volatile results with high-scoring wins (4-1, 3-2, 2-0) and narrow losses (2-3, 1-2), while Bosnia exhibits a draw-heavy, lower-scoring profile (three draws including 0-0 and two 1-1s, one heavy loss 1-4, one win 3-1). Check whether scoring and consistency patterns suggest stylistic contrast.
  • venue and home-country contextUSA is the schedule-listed home side playing at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, a venue within their own country with 69,391 capacity and low altitude. Investigate whether the captured venue data and home-country setting constitute measurable home-support factors or merely schedule labeling, without presuming advantage.

Tokens: 2628

Perspectives

market oddsHome winThe market consensus from 12 bookmakers is firmly aligned on a USA win at roughly 69% implied probability, with a very narrow spread of just 0.05 across the USA win line (1.36 to 1.41), signalling tight and confident pricing. The slight drift toward Bosnia in the latest update (+0.34pp on Bosnia, -0.35pp on USA) is minimal and does not alter the strong consensus. Bosnia's wider odds spread (6.8–8.7) shows more bookmaker disagreement on their upset potential, but all samples still price them well68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market consensus from 12 bookmakers is firmly aligned on a USA win at roughly 69% implied probability, with a very narrow spread of just 0.05 across the USA win line (1.36 to 1.41), signalling tight and confident pricing. The slight drift toward Bosnia in the latest update (+0.34pp on Bosnia, -0.35pp on USA) is minimal and does not alter the strong consensus. Bosnia's wider odds spread (6.8–8.7) shows more bookmaker disagreement on their upset potential, but all samples still price them well

Conclusion note

Across 12 observed bookmaker samples, the implied probability consensus strongly favours USA at 68.9%, with tight pricing on a USA win (1.36–1.41 range) and only marginal movement in the latest update window, while Bosnia & Herzegovina is priced between 6.8 and 8.7 with a wider spread indicating some divergence among bookmakers on their chances.

recent competitive formHome winComparing recent competitive form across five matches each, USA averages roughly 2.4 goals scored and produces volatile but decisive results with three wins, whereas Bosnia averages only about 1.2 goals scored and leans toward low-scoring draws, suggesting USA's attacking output should outweigh Bosnia's defensive caution in a knockout setting; the 68.9% bookmaker consensus for a USA win aligns with this form gap, though USA's own defensive volatility and the absence of head-to-head data temper c62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Comparing recent competitive form across five matches each, USA averages roughly 2.4 goals scored and produces volatile but decisive results with three wins, whereas Bosnia averages only about 1.2 goals scored and leans toward low-scoring draws, suggesting USA's attacking output should outweigh Bosnia's defensive caution in a knockout setting; the 68.9% bookmaker consensus for a USA win aligns with this form gap, though USA's own defensive volatility and the absence of head-to-head data temper c

Conclusion note

USA's last five matches show three high-scoring wins (4-1, 3-2, 2-0) and two narrow defeats (2-3, 1-2), while Bosnia's last five include three low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-1), one heavy loss (1-4) and one win (3-1), revealing a clear stylistic contrast between an aggressive, goal-producing USA side and a conservative, draw-prone Bosnia side that bookmakers rate at only 11.4% to win.

venue and home-country contextHome winThe captured venue data confirms USA is playing in their home country at a large low-altitude stadium, constituting a genuine home-support factor rather than just a schedule label. Combined with strong odds consensus favoring USA at 68.9% and USA's superior recent form compared to Bosnia's poor results against quality opponents, the evidence supports a USA win. Confidence is moderated by the absence of head-to-head records, lineups, and weather data.70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    venue and home-country context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The captured venue data confirms USA is playing in their home country at a large low-altitude stadium, constituting a genuine home-support factor rather than just a schedule label. Combined with strong odds consensus favoring USA at 68.9% and USA's superior recent form compared to Bosnia's poor results against quality opponents, the evidence supports a USA win. Confidence is moderated by the absence of head-to-head records, lineups, and weather data.

Conclusion note

USA play at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara within their own country, a 69,391-capacity venue at low altitude where home-country crowd support is a measurable factor beyond mere schedule labeling; bookmakers imply 68.9% for a USA win, and USA's recent form (6 wins in 10, including two World Cup wins at home) far outstrips Bosnia's (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses in 10, with heavy defeats against Germany and Switzerland).

Synthesis

All three perspectives — market odds, recent competitive form, and venue context — converge on a USA win. Bookmakers price USA at roughly 69% across 12 samples with tight pricing between 1.36 and 1.41, while Bosnia & Herzegovina sits at 6.8–8.7 with wider divergence among bookmakers. USA's recent five-match record features three high-scoring wins averaging 2.4 goals scored, whereas Bosnia's five-match form is draw-prone and low-scoring at roughly 1.2 goals per match, with a heavy 1-4 loss also on record. The home-country setting at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara adds a measurable crowd-support factor, and USA's broader 10-match sample shows six wins including home World Cup victories, compared to Bosnia's two wins and six losses in ten. The main uncertainty stems from USA's defensive volatility — two narrow defeats conceding two or three goals — and the absence of head-to-head data, which allows a modest draw probability reflecting Bosnia's tendency to grind out low-scoring stalemates against stronger opponents. Bosnia's past defeats to Switzerland and Canada in group-stage forecasts corroborate their struggles against quality sides, but do not guarantee a one-sided outcome here.

Reasoning summary: The market consensus, recent form comparison, and home-country venue factor all point firmly toward a USA victory, with confidence estimates ranging from 0.62 to 0.70 across the three perspectives. USA produces roughly double the attacking output of Bosnia in recent competitive matches and plays on home soil at a large low-altitude stadium, while Bosnia's recent record is dominated by low-scoring draws and a heavy defeat, with broader ten-match form showing just two wins. Confidence is moderated

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Preview editionRecall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 59.0%; draw 26.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia & relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Australia vs Türkiye Preview editionRecall anchors: aus tur group_d_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Türkiye win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Australia win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Türkiye win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Australia 1-2 Türkiye, Australia 1-1 Türkiyerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50